RaceIQ · WRC · 2026
World Rally Championship, forecast.
Rally and championship forecasts for the FIA World Rally Championship — a win and podium probability for every crew, and the drivers' and manufacturers' title fights projected to the final round. Every rally is scored on its surface — gravel, tarmac or snow, the single biggest driver of who is fast. 13 of 13 rounds complete, on the same MotorsportVerse core that powers RaceIQ F1.
Rally Window
This rally & beyond
Rally Control
Latest Official Result
Round 13 · Rally Italia Sardegna · Italy
| Pos | Crew | Status |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | SOLOliver Solberg | WINNER |
| P2 | OGISébastien Ogier | FINISHED |
| P3 | PAJSami Pajari | FINISHED |
| P4 | FOUAdrien Fourmaux | FINISHED |
| P5 | EVAElfyn Evans | FINISHED |
| P6 | KATTakamoto Katsuta | FINISHED |
| P7 | ARMJon Armstrong | FINISHED |
| P8 | KORRoope Korhonen | FINISHED |
| P9 | VIRRobert Virves | FINISHED |
| P10 | GREGus Greensmith | FINISHED |
Championship Snapshot
Where the season stands
Championship
Crews · Top 5
- 1EVA0
Elfyn Evans
Toyota
- 2SOL0
Oliver Solberg
Toyota
- 3PAJ0
Sami Pajari
Toyota
- 4OGI0
Sébastien Ogier
Toyota
- 5FOU0
Adrien Fourmaux
Hyundai
Manufacturers
Manufacturer Standings
P1
TOYOTA GAZOO RACING WRT
0
P2
HYUNDAI SHELL MOBIS WORLD RALLY TEAM
0
P3
TOYOTA GAZOO RACING WRT2
0
Next Round
Season finale
Podium Accuracy
0%
13 rounds graded
Biggest Mover
Oliver Solberg
+0 pts last round
Title Favourite
0%
Elfyn Evans
Championship Leader
Elfyn Evans
Toyota · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING WRT leads manufacturers
0
Projected Final Points · Elfyn Evans
0
projected (243–243 range) · 243 pts now · 0 of 13 rounds left
Constellation
The manufacturers behind the field
The 4 manufacturer entries in the 2026 World Rally Championship — Toyota, Hyundai and M-Sport Ford at the front of the Rally1 field — each chasing a manufacturers' world title alongside the crews.
Track record
Graded against every result
Every forecast is scored against the official classification once each rally's result is final — no cherry-picking. The figures below cover the season so far.
How it works
Results → model → forecast
From each rally's finishing order to a probability for every crew — here is the path each forecast travels before it reaches you.
Step 1 / 3
WRC results
- 1
WRC results
Rally classifications, the surface run (gravel, tarmac or snow) and championship standings, ingested after every round.
- 2
The model
A crew-form model — recent form, the rally's surface and championship position carry the signal. It re-trains as the season unfolds, then weighs every crew in the field.
- 3
Rally forecast
Probabilities for win, podium, top six and top ten — one classification for every rally.
What you get
Every read, one tap away
How the model works
Under the hood
Built to be checked
No black box, no cherry-picked highlights. The system is automated, time-stamped and open — so you can verify every claim yourself.
Re-trained every round
An automated pipeline folds in each rally's classification before the next round — recent crew form and the surface ahead, no manual intervention.
Time-stamped forecasts
Every forecast carries the moment it was generated, so freshness is never ambiguous. Last refreshed Oct 13, 2026.
Open methodology, open source
The full pipeline and the exact accuracy scoring are public on GitHub — every number on this site is reproducible.
One MotorsportVerse core
Built on the same motorsport-core that powers RaceIQ F1, with 13 WRC rallies graded so far this season.
Questions
Good to know
Is this betting or gambling advice?
No. RaceIQ WRC is a personal project published for education and entertainment. The forecasts are model outputs and should not be used for betting or any form of gambling. The project is not affiliated with the WRC, the FIA, the WRC Promoter, or any team.
How accurate is it, really?
Every predicted finishing order is graded against the official classification once the rally is over. The live numbers are published in full on the accuracy report, including the rallies where the model got it wrong.
Why is the WRC a good fit for a model?
The championship pits a deep field of Rally1 crews against each other over a repeatable calendar, but every round changes surface — gravel, tarmac or snow. Recent crew form, the surface underfoot and championship position carry a strong, learnable signal, and reading them together is exactly the kind of problem a model is built for.
How fresh are the forecasts?
Forecasts are regenerated every round and time-stamped, so you always know how recent a prediction is. “Next up” is the upcoming rally; the classification lands as soon as the result is official.
Is it open source?
Yes. The full data pipeline, the model, and the exact accuracy scoring are public on GitHub, so every figure on this site is reproducible. RaceIQ WRC runs on the same MotorsportVerse core that powers RaceIQ F1.
What data feeds the model?
Rally classifications, the surface each round is run on, and championship standings, ingested after every round of the WRC season.
Start line
Ready before the first stage
Open the next rally's forecast, then judge it against the classification. That is the whole deal.