Round 1: Rallye Monte Carlo

Round 01

Rallye Monte Carlo

TarmacResult + Forecast

Rally

Rallye Monte Carlo

Monaco

Surface

Tarmac

One rally classification each round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated rally angles

MODEL

Model favours Elfyn Evans (16%) over Oliver Solberg (12%) for the rally win.

SURFACE

Run on tarmac — sealed tarmac rewards precision and grip over the rough-road pace that wins on gravel.

VERDICT

The rally forecast missed the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.2 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

EVA

Elfyn Evans

Toyota

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P33

Predicted P1

Race Winner

SOL

Oliver Solberg

Toyota

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P33

Predicted P2

OGI

Sébastien Ogier

Toyota

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P32

Predicted P4

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Rally

Win vs podium probability

Evans

16%35%

Solberg

12%34%

Pajari

9%34%

Ogier

7%11%

Fourmaux

5%11%

Katsuta

4%11%

Neuville

3%5%

Paddon

3%6%

Mcerlean

2%5%

Lappi

2%6%

Rossel

2%6%

Armstrong

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Crew	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	Elfyn Evans Toyota	16%	35%	P4–P33	High	P2
2	Oliver Solberg Toyota	12%	34%	P4–P33	High	P1
3	Sami Pajari Toyota	9%	34%	P4–P33	High	—
4	Sébastien Ogier Toyota	7%	11%	P4–P32	High	P3
5	Adrien Fourmaux Hyundai	5%	11%	P4–P33	High	P4
6	Takamoto Katsuta Toyota	4%	11%	P4–P33	High	P7
7	Thierry Neuville Hyundai	3%	5%	P4–P33	High	P5
8	Hayden Paddon Hyundai	3%	6%	P4–P33	High	P11
9	Joshua Mcerlean Ford	2%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
10	Esapekka Lappi Hyundai	2%	6%	P4–P33	High	—
11	Yohan Rossel Lancia	2%	6%	P4–P33	High	P18
12	Jon Armstrong Ford	2%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
13	Robert Virves Skoda	2%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
14	Léo Rossel Citroen	2%	6%	P4–P33	High	P6
15	Gus Greensmith Toyota	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
16	Mārtinš Sesks Ford	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
17	Nikolay Gryazin Lancia	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
18	Daniel Sordo Hyundai	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
19	Roope Korhonen Toyota	1%	6%	P4–P33	High	—
20	Diego Domínguez Toyota	1%	6%	P4–P33	High	—
21	Alejandro Cachón Toyota	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
22	Fau Zaldivar Skoda	1%	6%	P4–P33	High	—
23	Roberto Daprà Skoda	1%	6%	P4–P33	High	P8
24	Andreas Mikkelsen Skoda	1%	6%	P4–P33	High	—
25	Jari-Matti Latvala Toyota	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
26	Teemu Suninen Toyota	1%	6%	P4–P33	High	—
27	Alejandro Galanti Toyota	2%	6%	P4–P33	High	—
28	Arthur Pelamourgues Hyundai	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	P9
29	Matteo Fontana Ford	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	P31
30	Eric Camilli Skoda	2%	6%	P4–P33	High	P10
31	Emil Lindholm Skoda	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
32	Taylor Gill Skoda	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
33	Grégoire Munster Ford	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
34	Jourdan Serderidis Ford	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
35	Romet Jürgenson Ford	1%	5%	P4–P33	High	—
36	Lorenzo Bertelli Toyota	1%	6%	P4–P33	High	—

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Elfyn Evans

16.1% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Crews Forecast

Surface

tarmac

Tap any row in the classification above to open a crew’s per-rally forecast and season form.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Evans

16%35%

Solberg

12%34%

Pajari

9%34%

Ogier

7%11%

Fourmaux

5%11%

Katsuta

4%11%

Neuville

3%5%

Paddon

3%6%

Mcerlean

2%5%

Lappi

2%6%

Rossel

2%6%

Armstrong

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual — rally

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 8 of 13 classified within three places. ·NC marks crews not classified in the rally.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
EVA
SOL
PAJ
OGI
FOU
KAT
NEU
PAD
MCE
LAP
ROS
ARM
VIR
ROL
GRE
SES
GRN
SOR
KOR
DOD
CAC
ZAF
DAP
MIK
LAT
SUN
GAL
PEL
FON
CAM
LIN
GIL
MUN
SER
JUR
BER

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	EVA	SOL	PAJ	OGI	FOU	KAT	NEU	PAD	MCE	LAP	ROS	ARM
EVA	—	51	49	48	50	49	50	50	51	50	51	51
SOL	50	—	49	48	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	51
PAJ	51	51	—	50	50	51	51	51	51	51	51	52
OGI	52	52	50	—	51	52	52	51	53	52	51	52
FOU	51	50	50	49	—	50	50	50	51	50	51	51
KAT	51	50	49	48	50	—	51	50	51	50	50	50
NEU	50	50	49	48	50	49	—	50	50	50	49	50
PAD	50	50	49	49	50	50	50	—	51	50	50	50
MCE	49	50	49	47	49	49	50	49	—	49	50	51
LAP	50	50	49	48	50	50	50	50	51	—	51	50
ROS	49	50	49	49	49	50	51	50	50	49	—	49
ARM	49	49	48	48	49	50	50	50	49	50	51	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
EVA
SOL
PAJ
OGI
FOU
KAT
NEU
PAD
MCE
LAP
ROS
ARM
VIR
ROL
GRE
SES
GRN
SOR
KOR
DOD
CAC
ZAF
DAP
MIK
LAT
SUN
GAL
PEL
FON
CAM
LIN
GIL
MUN
SER
JUR
BER

beats ↓ / →	EVA	SOL	PAJ	OGI	FOU	KAT	NEU	PAD	MCE	LAP	ROS	ARM
EVA	—	51	49	48	50	49	50	50	51	50	51	51
SOL	50	—	49	48	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	51
PAJ	51	51	—	50	50	51	51	51	51	51	51	52
OGI	52	52	50	—	51	52	52	51	53	52	51	52
FOU	51	50	50	49	—	50	50	50	51	50	51	51
KAT	51	50	49	48	50	—	51	50	51	50	50	50
NEU	50	50	49	48	50	49	—	50	50	50	49	50
PAD	50	50	49	49	50	50	50	—	51	50	50	50
MCE	49	50	49	47	49	49	50	49	—	49	50	51
LAP	50	50	49	48	50	50	50	50	51	—	51	50
ROS	49	50	49	49	49	50	51	50	50	49	—	49
ARM	49	49	48	48	49	50	50	50	49	50	51	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
EVA
SOL
PAJ
OGI
FOU
KAT
NEU
PAD
MCE
LAP
ROS
ARM
VIR
ROL
GRE
SES
GRN
SOR
KOR
DOD
CAC
ZAF
DAP
MIK
LAT
SUN
GAL
PEL
FON
CAM
LIN
GIL
MUN
SER
JUR
BER

beats ↓ / →	EVA	SOL	PAJ	OGI	FOU	KAT	NEU	PAD	MCE	LAP	ROS	ARM
EVA	—	51	49	48	50	49	50	50	51	50	51	51
SOL	50	—	49	48	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	51
PAJ	51	51	—	50	50	51	51	51	51	51	51	52
OGI	52	52	50	—	51	52	52	51	53	52	51	52
FOU	51	50	50	49	—	50	50	50	51	50	51	51
KAT	51	50	49	48	50	—	51	50	51	50	50	50
NEU	50	50	49	48	50	49	—	50	50	50	49	50
PAD	50	50	49	49	50	50	50	—	51	50	50	50
MCE	49	50	49	47	49	49	50	49	—	49	50	51
LAP	50	50	49	48	50	50	50	50	51	—	51	50
ROS	49	50	49	49	49	50	51	50	50	49	—	49
ARM	49	49	48	48	49	50	50	50	49	50	51	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
EVA
SOL
PAJ
OGI
FOU
KAT
NEU
PAD
MCE
LAP
ROS
ARM
VIR
ROL
GRE
SES
GRN
SOR
KOR
DOD
CAC
ZAF
DAP
MIK
LAT
SUN
GAL
PEL
FON
CAM
LIN
GIL
MUN
SER
JUR
BER

beats ↓ / →	EVA	SOL	PAJ	OGI	FOU	KAT	NEU	PAD	MCE	LAP	ROS	ARM
EVA	—	51	49	48	50	49	50	50	51	50	51	51
SOL	50	—	49	48	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	51
PAJ	51	51	—	50	50	51	51	51	51	51	51	52
OGI	52	52	50	—	51	52	52	51	53	52	51	52
FOU	51	50	50	49	—	50	50	50	51	50	51	51
KAT	51	50	49	48	50	—	51	50	51	50	50	50
NEU	50	50	49	48	50	49	—	50	50	50	49	50
PAD	50	50	49	49	50	50	50	—	51	50	50	50
MCE	49	50	49	47	49	49	50	49	—	49	50	51
LAP	50	50	49	48	50	50	50	50	51	—	51	50
ROS	49	50	49	49	49	50	51	50	50	49	—	49
ARM	49	49	48	48	49	50	50	50	49	50	51	—