Round 1: Rallye Monte Carlo

Round 01

Rallye Monte Carlo

TarmacResult + Forecast

Rally

Rallye Monte Carlo

Monaco

Surface

Tarmac

One rally classification each round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated rally angles

MODEL

Model favours Elfyn Evans (17%) over Sami Pajari (12%) for the rally win.

SURFACE

Run on tarmac — sealed tarmac rewards precision and grip over the rough-road pace that wins on gravel.

VERDICT

The rally forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.2 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

EVA

Elfyn Evans

Toyota

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P31

Predicted P1

Race Winner

SOL

Oliver Solberg

Toyota

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P31

Predicted P4

OGI

Sébastien Ogier

Toyota

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P31

Predicted P5

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Rally

Win vs podium probability

Evans

17%36%

Pajari

12%35%

Katsuta

9%35%

Solberg

7%11%

Ogier

5%11%

Fourmaux

4%11%

Neuville

3%5%

Lappi

3%6%

Paddon

2%6%

Mcerlean

2%6%

Rossel

2%5%

Rossel

2%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Crew	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	Elfyn Evans Toyota	17%	36%	P4–P31	High	P2
2	Sami Pajari Toyota	12%	35%	P4–P31	High	—
3	Takamoto Katsuta Toyota	9%	35%	P4–P31	High	P7
4	Oliver Solberg Toyota	7%	11%	P4–P31	High	P1
5	Sébastien Ogier Toyota	5%	11%	P4–P31	High	P3
6	Adrien Fourmaux Hyundai	4%	11%	P4–P31	High	P4
7	Thierry Neuville Hyundai	3%	5%	P4–P31	High	P5
8	Esapekka Lappi Hyundai	3%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
9	Hayden Paddon Hyundai	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	P11
10	Joshua Mcerlean Ford	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
11	Yohan Rossel Lancia	2%	5%	P4–P31	High	P18
12	Léo Rossel Citroen	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	P6
13	Jon Armstrong Ford	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
14	Robert Virves Skoda	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
15	Mārtinš Sesks Ford	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
16	Nikolay Gryazin Lancia	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
17	Daniel Sordo Hyundai	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
18	Gus Greensmith Toyota	1%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
19	Alejandro Cachón Toyota	1%	5%	P4–P31	High	—
20	Fau Zaldivar Skoda	1%	5%	P4–P31	High	—
21	Roberto Daprà Skoda	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	P8
22	Roope Korhonen Toyota	1%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
23	Andreas Mikkelsen Skoda	1%	5%	P4–P31	High	—
24	Jari-Matti Latvala Toyota	1%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
25	Diego Domínguez Toyota	1%	5%	P4–P31	High	—
26	Arthur Pelamourgues Hyundai	1%	6%	P4–P31	High	P9
27	Teemu Suninen Toyota	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
28	Matteo Fontana Ford	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	P31
29	Eric Camilli Skoda	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	P10
30	Emil Lindholm Skoda	2%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
31	Jourdan Serderidis Ford	1%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
32	Grégoire Munster Ford	1%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
33	Lorenzo Bertelli Toyota	1%	6%	P4–P31	High	—
34	Romet Jürgenson Ford	1%	6%	P4–P31	High	—

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Elfyn Evans

16.8% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Crews Forecast

Surface

tarmac

Tap any row in the classification above to open a crew’s per-rally forecast and season form.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Evans

17%36%

Pajari

12%35%

Katsuta

9%35%

Solberg

7%11%

Ogier

5%11%

Fourmaux

4%11%

Neuville

3%5%

Lappi

3%6%

Paddon

2%6%

Mcerlean

2%6%

Rossel

2%5%

Rossel

2%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual — rally

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 7 of 13 classified within three places. ·NC marks crews not classified in the rally.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34
EVA
PAJ
KAT
SOL
OGI
FOU
NEU
LAP
PAD
MCE
ROS
ROL
ARM
VIR
SES
GRN
SOR
GRE
CAC
ZAF
DAP
KOR
MIK
LAT
DOD
PEL
SUN
FON
CAM
LIN
SER
MUN
BER
JUR

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	EVA	PAJ	KAT	SOL	OGI	FOU	NEU	LAP	PAD	MCE	ROS	ROL
EVA	—	50	51	50	51	50	50	50	50	51	51	51
PAJ	50	—	50	50	51	50	51	50	49	50	51	51
KAT	49	50	—	49	51	50	50	50	49	50	50	50
SOL	50	50	51	—	52	50	51	52	50	51	51	51
OGI	49	49	49	48	—	49	49	50	49	50	50	49
FOU	50	50	50	50	51	—	51	50	50	50	51	50
NEU	50	49	50	49	51	49	—	50	49	49	50	50
LAP	50	50	50	48	50	50	50	—	49	50	50	49
PAD	50	51	51	50	51	50	51	51	—	51	51	51
MCE	49	50	50	49	50	50	51	50	49	—	51	50
ROS	49	49	50	49	50	49	50	50	49	49	—	50
ROL	49	49	50	49	51	50	50	51	49	50	50	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34
EVA
PAJ
KAT
SOL
OGI
FOU
NEU
LAP
PAD
MCE
ROS
ROL
ARM
VIR
SES
GRN
SOR
GRE
CAC
ZAF
DAP
KOR
MIK
LAT
DOD
PEL
SUN
FON
CAM
LIN
SER
MUN
BER
JUR

beats ↓ / →	EVA	PAJ	KAT	SOL	OGI	FOU	NEU	LAP	PAD	MCE	ROS	ROL
EVA	—	50	51	50	51	50	50	50	50	51	51	51
PAJ	50	—	50	50	51	50	51	50	49	50	51	51
KAT	49	50	—	49	51	50	50	50	49	50	50	50
SOL	50	50	51	—	52	50	51	52	50	51	51	51
OGI	49	49	49	48	—	49	49	50	49	50	50	49
FOU	50	50	50	50	51	—	51	50	50	50	51	50
NEU	50	49	50	49	51	49	—	50	49	49	50	50
LAP	50	50	50	48	50	50	50	—	49	50	50	49
PAD	50	51	51	50	51	50	51	51	—	51	51	51
MCE	49	50	50	49	50	50	51	50	49	—	51	50
ROS	49	49	50	49	50	49	50	50	49	49	—	50
ROL	49	49	50	49	51	50	50	51	49	50	50	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34
EVA
PAJ
KAT
SOL
OGI
FOU
NEU
LAP
PAD
MCE
ROS
ROL
ARM
VIR
SES
GRN
SOR
GRE
CAC
ZAF
DAP
KOR
MIK
LAT
DOD
PEL
SUN
FON
CAM
LIN
SER
MUN
BER
JUR

beats ↓ / →	EVA	PAJ	KAT	SOL	OGI	FOU	NEU	LAP	PAD	MCE	ROS	ROL
EVA	—	50	51	50	51	50	50	50	50	51	51	51
PAJ	50	—	50	50	51	50	51	50	49	50	51	51
KAT	49	50	—	49	51	50	50	50	49	50	50	50
SOL	50	50	51	—	52	50	51	52	50	51	51	51
OGI	49	49	49	48	—	49	49	50	49	50	50	49
FOU	50	50	50	50	51	—	51	50	50	50	51	50
NEU	50	49	50	49	51	49	—	50	49	49	50	50
LAP	50	50	50	48	50	50	50	—	49	50	50	49
PAD	50	51	51	50	51	50	51	51	—	51	51	51
MCE	49	50	50	49	50	50	51	50	49	—	51	50
ROS	49	49	50	49	50	49	50	50	49	49	—	50
ROL	49	49	50	49	51	50	50	51	49	50	50	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34
EVA
PAJ
KAT
SOL
OGI
FOU
NEU
LAP
PAD
MCE
ROS
ROL
ARM
VIR
SES
GRN
SOR
GRE
CAC
ZAF
DAP
KOR
MIK
LAT
DOD
PEL
SUN
FON
CAM
LIN
SER
MUN
BER
JUR

beats ↓ / →	EVA	PAJ	KAT	SOL	OGI	FOU	NEU	LAP	PAD	MCE	ROS	ROL
EVA	—	50	51	50	51	50	50	50	50	51	51	51
PAJ	50	—	50	50	51	50	51	50	49	50	51	51
KAT	49	50	—	49	51	50	50	50	49	50	50	50
SOL	50	50	51	—	52	50	51	52	50	51	51	51
OGI	49	49	49	48	—	49	49	50	49	50	50	49
FOU	50	50	50	50	51	—	51	50	50	50	51	50
NEU	50	49	50	49	51	49	—	50	49	49	50	50
LAP	50	50	50	48	50	50	50	—	49	50	50	49
PAD	50	51	51	50	51	50	51	51	—	51	51	51
MCE	49	50	50	49	50	50	51	50	49	—	51	50
ROS	49	49	50	49	50	49	50	50	49	49	—	50
ROL	49	49	50	49	51	50	50	51	49	50	50	—