RaceIQ WRC
WRC · rally
World rally on the MotorsportVerse core. Each round is a single rally classification (no sprint, no qualifying grid), driven by a leakage-safe crew-skill blend — cross-season driver-skill ratings, the car (manufacturer/tier), and a same-surface form signal, since gravel, tarmac and snow reward different crews. Because rally has no grid, the current championship order is a very strong predictor, so the production forecast ENSEMBLES the skill model with a championship-form prior — validated by walk-forward (2021-2026) to beat the standings-order baseline on the live season (win and podium Brier) while the surface/cross-season signal adds what a bare standings heuristic can't. simulated win/podium probabilities, finishing-range intervals, and a rally-by-rally drivers' + manufacturers' championship projection. Runs on the real 2026 WRC season pulled from the official wrc.com results API into a committed, reviewable snapshot (2021-2026 corpus). Deployed site + scheduled refresh pipeline; forward-eval grades every rally honestly against standings and last-rally baselines.
Datasets
- wrc.com results API (official, pulled to a committed snapshot)
- 2021-2026 WRC corpus (offline, reproducible)
Model components
- crew-skill-elo-cross-season
- surface-form
- championship-form-ensemble
- Probability calibration
- Championship simulation
- Standings projection
Shared core modules
- Probability calibration
- Championship simulation
- Standings projection
- Driver-skill ratings
- Uncertainty intervals
- Forward evaluation
- Drift monitoring
- Leakage guards
- Predictor interfaces
Tags
- rally
- mixed-surface
- one-classification-per-round
- calibrated probabilities
- race simulation
Registered 2026-06-15
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