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RaceIQ WRC

WRC · rally

Experimental

World rally on the MotorsportVerse core. Each round is a single rally classification (no sprint, no qualifying grid), driven by a leakage-safe crew-skill blend — cross-season driver-skill ratings, the car (manufacturer/tier), and a same-surface form signal, since gravel, tarmac and snow reward different crews. Because rally has no grid, the current championship order is a very strong predictor, so the production forecast ENSEMBLES the skill model with a championship-form prior — validated by walk-forward (2021-2026) to beat the standings-order baseline on the live season (win and podium Brier) while the surface/cross-season signal adds what a bare standings heuristic can't. simulated win/podium probabilities, finishing-range intervals, and a rally-by-rally drivers' + manufacturers' championship projection. Runs on the real 2026 WRC season pulled from the official wrc.com results API into a committed, reviewable snapshot (2021-2026 corpus). Deployed site + scheduled refresh pipeline; forward-eval grades every rally honestly against standings and last-rally baselines.

Experimental. This product runs on the real season, but its forward accuracy is still accruing over live rounds — read the forecasts with that track record in mind.
rally
Category
2
Datasets
6
Model components
9
Core modules

Datasets

  • wrc.com results API (official, pulled to a committed snapshot)
  • 2021-2026 WRC corpus (offline, reproducible)

Model components

  • crew-skill-elo-cross-season
  • surface-form
  • championship-form-ensemble
  • Probability calibration
  • Championship simulation
  • Standings projection

Shared core modules

  • Probability calibration
  • Championship simulation
  • Standings projection
  • Driver-skill ratings
  • Uncertainty intervals
  • Forward evaluation
  • Drift monitoring
  • Leakage guards
  • Predictor interfaces

Tags

  • rally
  • mixed-surface
  • one-classification-per-round
  • calibrated probabilities
  • race simulation
Maintained byMotorsportVerse

Registered 2026-06-15

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