IndyCar Predictions
IndyCar · open-wheel
American open-wheel racing on the MotorsportVerse core, built snapshot-first: fifteen seasons of hand-verified historical data are the committed source of truth, and live updates land only behind strict parse-validation gates. The model's signature is a dual rating system that scores oval and road/street ability separately - validated to materially beat a single rating in walk-forward testing - alongside attrition modeling tuned to oval risk and Chevrolet/Honda engine effects. Covers the full 2026 season including the Indianapolis 500's 33-car field. Deployed site, scheduled refresh pipeline, and public forward-eval grading every round.
Datasets
- Hand-verified season archives 2012-2026 (committed, standings-checked)
- indycar.com / Wikipedia race classifications (validated refresh path)
Model components
- dual-surface-elo
- dnf-hazard-composition
- Probability calibration
- Championship simulation
- Standings projection
Shared core modules
- Probability calibration
- Championship simulation
- Standings projection
- Driver-skill ratings
- Uncertainty intervals
- Forward evaluation
- Drift monitoring
- Gated model promotion
- Leakage guards
- Predictor interfaces
Tags
- open-wheel
- ovals
- indy-500
- calibrated probabilities
- race simulation
Registered 2026-06-15
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