RaceIQ · NASCAR Cup Series · Season 2026
Stock cars, forecast.
Race and championship forecasts for the NASCAR Cup Series — all 36 races, from the Daytona 500 to the Chase finale at Homestead, across superspeedways, intermediates, short tracks and road courses. 32 of 36 rounds complete, on the same MotorsportVerse core that powers RaceIQ F1.
Next round · Predicted next
Freeway Insurance 500
Phoenix Raceway · three stages, one points race — a full-field forecast before the green flag, retirement risk included.
Race Window
This round & beyond
Race Forecast · Next Round
Predicted Podium — Phoenix Raceway
The model's top three picks for Freeway Insurance 500 at round 33. Projected race winner plus the two drivers most likely to share the podium.
Win probability
0.0%
Win probability
0.0%
Win probability
0.0%Race Control
Latest Official Result
Round 32 · Bank of America 400 · Charlotte Motor Speedway
| Pos | Driver | Status |
|---|---|---|
| P1 |  Chase Briscoe | WINNER |
| P2 | Christopher Bell | FINISHED |
| P3 |  Ryan Blaney | FINISHED |
| P4 |  Josh Berry | FINISHED |
| P5 | Denny Hamlin | FINISHED |
| P6 |  Kyle Larson | FINISHED |
| P7 |  Shane Van Gisbergen | FINISHED |
| P8 | Tyler Reddick | FINISHED |
| P9 |  Joey Logano | FINISHED |
| P10 |  Chris Buescher | FINISHED |
Championship Snapshot
Where the season stands
Championship
Drivers · Top 5
- 10
Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing
- 20
Ryan Blaney
Team Penske
- 30
Tyler Reddick
23XI Racing
- 4
0Ty Gibbs
Joe Gibbs Racing
- 50
Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports
Teams
Team Standings
P1
Joe Gibbs Racing
0
P2
Hendrick Motorsports
0
P3
Team Penske
0
Next Round
R33
Phoenix Raceway
Podium Accuracy
0%
32 rounds graded
Biggest Mover
Chase Briscoe
+0 pts last round
Title Favourite
0%
Kyle Larson
Championship Leader
Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing · Joe Gibbs Racing leads teams
0
Projected Final Points · Kyle Larson
0
projected (1038–1038 range) · 1038 pts now · 4 of 36 rounds left
Constellation
The teams behind the grid
20 teams contest the 2026 Cup season — every car on the grid, in orbit. Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota split the garage, so the owners' title is a genuine three-make fight.
Track record
Graded against every result
Every forecast is scored against the official classification once the checkered flag drops on each race — no cherry-picking. The figures below cover the season so far.
How it works
Results → model → forecast
From each round's finishing orders to a probability for every car — here is the path each forecast travels before it reaches you.
Step 1 / 3
NASCAR Cup results
- 1
NASCAR Cup results
Race finishing orders, stage results, grids and championship standings ingested after every checkered flag.
- 2
The model
A track-type-aware driver model — superspeedways, intermediates, short tracks and road courses reward different things, and the forecast is tuned separately for each. A per-driver retirement hazard rides along, and it re-trains as the season unfolds.
- 3
Race forecast
Probabilities for win, podium, top six and top ten for every driver — calibrated on the season's real results.
What you get
Every read, one tap away
How the model works
Under the hood
Built to be checked
No black box, no cherry-picked highlights. The system is automated, time-stamped and open — so you can verify every claim yourself.
Re-trained every round
An automated pipeline folds in the latest race result before the next round — recent form and grid position, no manual intervention.
Time-stamped forecasts
Every forecast carries the moment it was generated, so freshness is never ambiguous. Last refreshed Oct 13, 2026.
Open methodology, open source
The full pipeline and the exact accuracy scoring are public on GitHub — every number on this site is reproducible.
One MotorsportVerse core
Built on the same motorsport-core that powers RaceIQ F1, with 32 Cup rounds graded so far this season.
Questions
Good to know
Is this betting or gambling advice?
No. RaceIQ NASCAR is a personal project published for education and entertainment. The forecasts are model outputs and should not be used for betting or any form of gambling. The project is not affiliated with NASCAR or any team.
How accurate is it, really?
Every predicted finishing order is graded against the official classification once each race is over. The live numbers are published in full on the accuracy report, including the races where the model got it wrong — and the current health warnings sit right beside the wins.
What makes NASCAR hard to forecast?
Forty-car fields, pack racing and cautions. At Daytona and Talladega anyone in the draft can win — and anyone can be collected by a wreck that wasn’t theirs. The forecast reflects that: probabilities are tuned separately for the four track types, every driver carries a modelled retirement risk, and the predicted finishing ranges honestly widen where chaos reigns.
How do stages and the Chase work?
Every race runs in three stages, and the top ten of each stage score championship points on the spot. After 26 regular-season races, the top sixteen drivers enter the ten-race Chase playoff that decides the title. The standings page draws today’s playoff cut line and every driver’s odds of making it — and winning it all.
How fresh are the forecasts?
Forecasts are regenerated every race round and time-stamped, so you always know how recent a prediction is. “Next up” is the upcoming Cup race; results land as soon as they are official.
Is it open source?
Yes. The full data pipeline, the model, and the exact accuracy scoring are public on GitHub, so every figure on this site is reproducible. RaceIQ NASCAR runs on the same MotorsportVerse core that powers RaceIQ F1.
What data feeds the model?
Race results, stage results, starting grids and championship standings, ingested after every round of the NASCAR Cup Series season.
Lights out
Ready before the grid forms
Open the next Cup race forecast, then judge it against the result. That is the whole deal.