Round 33: Freeway Insurance 500

Round 33

Freeway Insurance 500

Short TrackPlayoffsUpcoming Forecast

Venue

Phoenix Raceway

United States

Race Format

Short TrackStages 60 / 125 / 127

3 stages, 312 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 30% — nobody else clears 13%.

SHORT TRACK

Phoenix Raceway is a short track — beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace.

PLAYOFFS

A Chase playoff round — the championship picture, not just the race win, moves on every stage point scored here.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Ryan Blaney

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P34

Projected Winner

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P10

Ty Gibbs

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P34

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

30%67%

Blaney

13%38%

Gibbs

12%38%

Bell

9%29%

Reddick

4%13%

Heim

5%18%

Briscoe

3%12%

Logano

3%10%

Wallace

3%9%

Buescher

2%8%

Cindric

2%7%

Larson

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	30%	67%	P1–P10	10%	High
2	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	13%	38%	P1–P34	14%	Low
3	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	12%	38%	P1–P34	13%	Low
4	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	9%	29%	P2–P33	12%	Low
5	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	4%	13%	P3–P22	9%	High
6	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	5%	18%	P2–P35	15%	Low
7	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	12%	P3–P34	13%	Low
8	Joey Logano Team Penske	3%	10%	P4–P34	12%	Low
9	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	3%	9%	P4–P35	15%	Low
10	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	2%	8%	P4–P24	9%	High
11	Austin Cindric Team Penske	2%	7%	P4–P33	11%	Low
12	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P34	11%	Low
13	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	7%	P5–P33	11%	Low
14	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P5–P31	10%	Medium
15	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P35	14%	Low
16	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P33	12%	Medium
17	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	3%	P7–P35	14%	Low
18	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P8–P33	11%	Medium
19	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	1%	2%	P9–P35	16%	Medium
20	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	0%	2%	P10–P32	9%	Medium
21	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P35	13%	Medium
22	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P10–P34	13%	Medium
23	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P11–P32	10%	Medium
24	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P11–P34	13%	Medium
25	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P35	14%	Medium
26	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P33	10%	High
27	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P13–P34	12%	Medium
28	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P14–P34	11%	High
29	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P15–P35	14%	High
30	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P15–P34	12%	High
31	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P16–P34	10%	High
32	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P16–P35	13%	High
33	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P18–P35	11%	High
34	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P20–P35	11%	High
35	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P21–P35	10%	High
36	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P21–P35	13%	High
37	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P26–P36	20%	High
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P28–P36	15%	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

30.0% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Short Track

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Short Track

Phoenix Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Short Track racing: beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

30%67%

Blaney

13%38%

Gibbs

12%38%

Bell

9%29%

Reddick

4%13%

Heim

5%18%

Briscoe

3%12%

Logano

3%10%

Wallace

3%9%

Buescher

2%8%

Cindric

2%7%

Larson

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
DEHAMLIN
RYBLANEY
TYGIBBS
CHBELL
TYREDDICK
COHEIM
CHBRISCOE
JOLOGANO
BUWALLACE
CHBUESCHER
AUCINDRIC
KYLARSON
RYPREECE
CHELLIOTT
DASUAREZ
WIBYRON
BRKESELOWSKI
SHGISBERGEN
JOBERRY
MIMCDOWELL
CAHOCEVAR
ALBOWMAN
KYBUSCH
ZASMITH
NOGRAGSON
TOGILLILAND
ROCHASTAIN
ERJONES
AJALLMENDINGER
AUDILLON
JONEMECHEK
RIHERBST
RISTENHOUSE
COCUSTER
TYDILLON
AUHILL
COZILISCH
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	RYBLANEY	TYGIBBS	CHBELL	TYREDDICK	COHEIM	CHBRISCOE	JOLOGANO	BUWALLACE	CHBUESCHER	AUCINDRIC	KYLARSON
DEHAMLIN	—	68	68	73	82	79	83	84	84	86	86	87
RYBLANEY	32	—	50	57	69	66	72	74	76	77	78	78
TYGIBBS	32	50	—	56	70	65	71	74	75	77	77	78
CHBELL	27	43	44	—	65	60	68	70	71	75	75	76
TYREDDICK	18	31	31	35	—	44	53	56	57	63	64	64
COHEIM	21	34	35	40	56	—	59	61	63	66	67	68
CHBRISCOE	17	28	29	32	47	41	—	52	54	59	59	61
JOLOGANO	16	26	26	30	44	39	48	—	52	57	58	60
BUWALLACE	16	24	25	29	43	37	46	48	—	55	57	56
CHBUESCHER	14	23	23	25	37	34	41	43	45	—	52	52
AUCINDRIC	14	22	23	25	36	33	41	42	43	48	—	50
KYLARSON	13	22	22	24	36	33	39	40	44	48	50	—