Round 34: YellaWood 500 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 34

YellaWood 500

SuperspeedwayPlayoffsUpcoming Forecast

Venue

Talladega Superspeedway

United States

Race Format

SuperspeedwayStages 60 / 60 / 68

3 stages, 188 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Denny Hamlin (25%) over Ty Gibbs (12%).

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Talladega Superspeedway is a superspeedway — pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field.

PLAYOFFS

A Chase playoff round — the championship picture, not just the race win, moves on every stage point scored here.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Ty Gibbs

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P35

Projected Winner

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P34

Ryan Blaney

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P35

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

25%58%

Gibbs

12%35%

Blaney

11%33%

Bell

9%29%

Reddick

8%22%

Buescher

4%14%

Elliott

3%9%

Heim

4%12%

Cindric

3%10%

Logano

3%9%

Hocevar

2%8%

Briscoe

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	25%	58%	P1–P34	14%	Low
2	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	12%	35%	P1–P35	17%	Low
3	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	11%	33%	P1–P35	18%	Low
4	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	9%	29%	P2–P34	16%	Low
5	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	8%	22%	P2–P34	14%	Low
6	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	4%	14%	P3–P33	13%	Medium
7	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	3%	9%	P4–P34	14%	Medium
8	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	4%	12%	P3–P36	20%	Low
9	Austin Cindric Team Penske	3%	10%	P4–P34	16%	Medium
10	Joey Logano Team Penske	3%	9%	P4–P35	16%	Low
11	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	2%	8%	P4–P35	18%	Low
12	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	8%	P4–P35	17%	Low
13	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	1%	6%	P5–P35	18%	Medium
14	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	6%	P5–P34	16%	Medium
15	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	5%	P6–P34	16%	Medium
16	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	2%	6%	P5–P35	19%	Medium
17	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P34	16%	Medium
18	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P35	15%	Medium
19	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P33	14%	Medium
20	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	3%	P8–P35	18%	Medium
21	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	2%	P9–P35	16%	Medium
22	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P9–P34	14%	Medium
23	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	2%	P9–P34	16%	Medium
24	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	2%	P10–P34	17%	Medium
25	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P11–P33	14%	High
26	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P11–P35	17%	Medium
27	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	1%	P12–P35	20%	High
28	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P12–P34	16%	High
29	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P12–P34	14%	High
30	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P35	19%	High
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P34	16%	High
32	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P16–P35	18%	High
33	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P16–P35	18%	High
34	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P17–P34	14%	High
35	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P18–P35	16%	High
36	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P23–P35	18%	High
37	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P24–P36	25%	High
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P27–P36	19%	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

24.8% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Superspeedway

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Superspeedway

Talladega Superspeedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Superspeedway racing: pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

25%58%

Gibbs

12%35%

Blaney

11%33%

Bell

9%29%

Reddick

8%22%

Buescher

4%14%

Elliott

3%9%

Heim

4%12%

Cindric

3%10%

Logano

3%9%

Hocevar

2%8%

Briscoe

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
DEHAMLIN
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
CHBELL
TYREDDICK
CHBUESCHER
CHELLIOTT
COHEIM
AUCINDRIC
JOLOGANO
CAHOCEVAR
CHBRISCOE
DASUAREZ
RYPREECE
SHGISBERGEN
BUWALLACE
WIBYRON
KYLARSON
MIMCDOWELL
BRKESELOWSKI
ROCHASTAIN
KYBUSCH
ERJONES
ALBOWMAN
TOGILLILAND
ZASMITH
JOBERRY
AUDILLON
JONEMECHEK
NOGRAGSON
RISTENHOUSE
AJALLMENDINGER
RIHERBST
TYDILLON
COCUSTER
AUHILL
COZILISCH
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	CHBELL	TYREDDICK	CHBUESCHER	CHELLIOTT	COHEIM	AUCINDRIC	JOLOGANO	CAHOCEVAR	CHBRISCOE
DEHAMLIN	—	65	66	67	72	77	80	79	80	81	81	81
TYGIBBS	35	—	52	54	58	66	71	69	72	72	73	73
RYBLANEY	34	48	—	51	56	65	70	69	72	71	72	73
CHBELL	33	46	49	—	54	64	69	67	70	70	71	72
TYREDDICK	28	42	44	46	—	59	66	64	67	67	68	69
CHBUESCHER	23	34	35	36	41	—	57	55	60	59	59	62
CHELLIOTT	20	29	30	31	34	43	—	48	53	52	54	56
COHEIM	21	31	31	33	36	45	52	—	53	53	54	56
AUCINDRIC	20	28	28	30	33	40	47	47	—	50	51	54
JOLOGANO	19	28	29	30	33	41	48	47	50	—	51	53
CAHOCEVAR	19	27	28	29	32	41	46	46	50	49	—	52
CHBRISCOE	19	27	27	28	31	38	44	44	46	47	48	—