Round 34: YellaWood 500 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 34

YellaWood 500

SuperspeedwayPlayoffsUpcoming Forecast

Venue

Talladega Superspeedway

United States

Race Format

SuperspeedwayStages 60 / 60 / 68

3 stages, 188 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Denny Hamlin (23%) over Tyler Reddick (14%).

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Talladega Superspeedway is a superspeedway — pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field.

PLAYOFFS

A Chase playoff round — the championship picture, not just the race win, moves on every stage point scored here.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P34

Projected Winner

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P33

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P34

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

23%54%

Reddick

14%39%

Bell

8%25%

Cindric

7%20%

Briscoe

7%21%

Blaney

6%19%

Logano

4%12%

Elliott

3%11%

Suárez

3%12%

Heim

4%12%

Preece

3%9%

Larson

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	23%	54%	P1–P33	14%	Low
2	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	14%	39%	P1–P34	13%	Low
3	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	25%	P2–P34	15%	Low
4	Austin Cindric Team Penske	7%	20%	P2–P34	15%	Low
5	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	7%	21%	P2–P35	17%	Low
6	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	6%	19%	P2–P35	19%	Low
7	Joey Logano Team Penske	4%	12%	P3–P35	15%	Low
8	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P34	14%	Low
9	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	3%	12%	P3–P35	18%	Low
10	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	4%	12%	P3–P36	19%	Low
11	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	3%	9%	P4–P34	15%	Medium
12	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	3%	9%	P4–P34	14%	Medium
13	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	2%	7%	P4–P33	13%	Medium
14	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	7%	P5–P35	17%	Medium
15	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P33	13%	Medium
16	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	5%	P6–P34	15%	Medium
17	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P35	17%	Medium
18	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	4%	P6–P35	19%	Medium
19	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P34	17%	Medium
20	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P8–P35	15%	Medium
21	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P9–P34	14%	Medium
22	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	3%	P9–P35	17%	Medium
23	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	1%	2%	P9–P35	19%	Medium
24	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	3%	P9–P34	15%	Medium
25	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	2%	P10–P34	18%	Medium
26	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P12–P33	14%	High
27	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P12–P34	15%	High
28	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P12–P34	14%	High
29	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P34	15%	High
30	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P15–P35	18%	High
31	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P16–P34	15%	High
32	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P16–P35	17%	High
33	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P18–P35	17%	High
34	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P18–P35	19%	High
35	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P20–P35	14%	High
36	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P20–P36	23%	High
37	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P22–P35	16%	High
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P28–P36	19%	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

22.7% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Superspeedway

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Superspeedway

Talladega Superspeedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Superspeedway racing: pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

23%54%

Reddick

14%39%

Bell

8%25%

Cindric

7%20%

Briscoe

7%21%

Blaney

6%19%

Logano

4%12%

Elliott

3%11%

Suárez

3%12%

Heim

4%12%

Preece

3%9%

Larson

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
DEHAMLIN
TYREDDICK
CHBELL
AUCINDRIC
CHBRISCOE
RYBLANEY
JOLOGANO
CHELLIOTT
DASUAREZ
COHEIM
RYPREECE
KYLARSON
CHBUESCHER
TYGIBBS
MIMCDOWELL
SHGISBERGEN
CAHOCEVAR
BUWALLACE
WIBYRON
ROCHASTAIN
KYBUSCH
BRKESELOWSKI
JOBERRY
AUDILLON
ALBOWMAN
TOGILLILAND
ERJONES
JONEMECHEK
RISTENHOUSE
RIHERBST
COCUSTER
AJALLMENDINGER
ZASMITH
NOGRAGSON
TYDILLON
COZILISCH
AUHILL
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYREDDICK	CHBELL	AUCINDRIC	CHBRISCOE	RYBLANEY	JOLOGANO	CHELLIOTT	DASUAREZ	COHEIM	RYPREECE	KYLARSON
DEHAMLIN	—	59	68	71	71	74	78	79	78	78	80	80
TYREDDICK	41	—	61	65	64	66	72	73	73	73	76	75
CHBELL	32	39	—	54	54	57	63	65	63	64	67	67
AUCINDRIC	29	35	46	—	51	52	59	61	59	59	63	64
CHBRISCOE	29	36	46	49	—	52	59	59	58	59	63	63
RYBLANEY	26	34	43	48	48	—	56	58	57	57	62	61
JOLOGANO	22	28	37	41	41	44	—	52	50	51	55	56
CHELLIOTT	21	27	35	39	41	42	48	—	49	48	53	54
DASUAREZ	22	27	37	41	42	43	50	51	—	50	54	55
COHEIM	22	27	36	41	41	43	49	52	50	—	55	54
RYPREECE	20	24	33	37	37	38	45	47	46	45	—	50
KYLARSON	20	25	33	36	37	39	44	46	45	46	50	—