Round 32: Bank of America 400

Round 32

Bank of America 400

IntermediatePlayoffsResult + Forecast

Venue

Charlotte Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 25 / 25 / 217

3 stages, 267 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Denny Hamlin (14%) over Kyle Larson (10%).

INTERMEDIATE

Charlotte Motor Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 8.7 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P35

Predicted P8

Race Winner

Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P35

Predicted P5

Ryan Blaney

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P36

Predicted P6

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

14%39%

Larson

10%27%

Reddick

8%24%

Cindric

7%20%

Briscoe

9%23%

Blaney

6%19%

Gibbs

5%15%

Bell

4%15%

Wallace

5%15%

Byron

4%13%

Logano

4%13%

Elliott

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	14%	39%	P1–P33	10%	Low	P5
2	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	10%	27%	P2–P33	11%	Low	P6
3	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	8%	24%	P2–P31	10%	Medium	P8
4	Austin Cindric Team Penske	7%	20%	P2–P33	11%	Low	P17
5	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	9%	23%	P2–P35	14%	Low	P1
6	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	6%	19%	P2–P36	15%	Low	P3
7	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	5%	15%	P3–P35	13%	Low	P34
8	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	15%	P3–P35	12%	Low	P2
9	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	5%	15%	P3–P36	15%	Low	P37
10	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	4%	13%	P3–P35	13%	Low	P39
11	Joey Logano Team Penske	4%	13%	P3–P35	12%	Low	P9
12	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	3%	9%	P4–P35	11%	Low	P12
13	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	3%	9%	P4–P36	15%	Low	P11
14	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	2%	5%	P6–P31	10%	Medium	P10
15	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P36	14%	Low	P13
16	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P35	14%	Medium	P14
17	GRGAULDING	1%	5%	P6–P36	16%	Medium	P36
18	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	5%	P6–P33	11%	Medium	P15
19	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	2%	5%	P7–P35	13%	Medium	P38
20	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P8–P34	11%	Medium	P7
21	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	4%	P7–P36	14%	Medium	P29
22	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	3%	P10–P32	10%	High	P19
23	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P10–P35	12%	Medium	P24
24	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P10–P35	12%	Medium	P26
25	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	2%	P11–P34	12%	Medium	P16
26	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	2%	P11–P35	14%	Medium	P28
27	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P12–P33	10%	High	P35
28	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	1%	P14–P36	14%	High	P18
29	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P35	10%	High	P22
30	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	1%	P16–P36	15%	High	P4
31	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P18–P35	11%	High	P27
32	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P20–P36	13%	High	P32
33	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P19–P36	15%	High	P25
34	BJ McLeod Live Fast Motorsports	0%	0%	P19–P37	24%	High	P33
35	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	0%	P22–P36	11%	High	P23
36	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P21–P36	14%	High	P20
37	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P23–P36	11%	High	P30
38	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P24–P37	19%	High	P21
39	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P28–P37	15%	High	P31

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

25 laps

1	Kyle Larson	+10
2	Chase Briscoe	+9
3	Christopher Bell	+8
4	Austin Cindric	+7
5	Tyler Reddick	+6
6	Daniel Suárez	+5
7	Corey Heim	+0
8	Carson Hocevar	+3
9	Chris Buescher	+2
10	Ryan Blaney	+1

Stage 2

25 laps

1	Christopher Bell	+10
2	Ryan Blaney	+9
3	Denny Hamlin	+8
4	Kyle Larson	+7
5	Tyler Reddick	+6
6	Austin Cindric	+5
7	Chase Briscoe	+4
8	Josh Berry	+3
9	Chase Elliott	+2
10	Carson Hocevar	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

14.2% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

14%39%

Larson

10%27%

Reddick

8%24%

Cindric

7%20%

Briscoe

9%23%

Blaney

6%19%

Gibbs

5%15%

Bell

4%15%

Wallace

5%15%

Byron

4%13%

Logano

4%13%

Elliott

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 13 of 39 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39
DEHAMLIN
KYLARSON
TYREDDICK
AUCINDRIC
CHBRISCOE
RYBLANEY
TYGIBBS
CHBELL
BUWALLACE
WIBYRON
JOLOGANO
CHELLIOTT
COHEIM
CHBUESCHER
DASUAREZ
CAHOCEVAR
GRGAULDING
RYPREECE
ALBOWMAN
SHGISBERGEN
BRKESELOWSKI
MIMCDOWELL
ERJONES
AUDILLON
ROCHASTAIN
AJALLMENDINGER
JONEMECHEK
RIHERBST
TOGILLILAND
JOBERRY
COCUSTER
AUHILL
NOGRAGSON
BJMCLEOD
RISTENHOUSE
ZASMITH
TYDILLON
COZILISCH
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	KYLARSON	TYREDDICK	AUCINDRIC	CHBRISCOE	RYBLANEY	TYGIBBS	CHBELL	BUWALLACE	WIBYRON	JOLOGANO	CHELLIOTT
DEHAMLIN	—	59	61	65	62	67	69	71	70	72	73	76
KYLARSON	41	—	53	56	54	59	62	64	63	65	66	70
TYREDDICK	39	47	—	53	52	56	60	62	61	61	64	67
AUCINDRIC	35	44	47	—	48	53	55	57	58	60	61	65
CHBRISCOE	38	46	48	52	—	55	58	60	59	61	62	66
RYBLANEY	33	41	44	47	45	—	53	54	55	56	57	62
TYGIBBS	31	38	40	45	42	47	—	53	53	52	54	59
CHBELL	29	36	38	43	40	46	47	—	49	51	52	57
BUWALLACE	30	37	39	42	41	45	47	51	—	51	53	57
WIBYRON	28	35	39	40	39	44	48	49	49	—	51	55
JOLOGANO	27	34	36	39	38	43	46	48	47	49	—	55
CHELLIOTT	24	30	33	35	34	38	41	43	43	45	45	—