NASCAR Predictions
NASCAR · stock
Stock-car racing on the MotorsportVerse core: a field-relative driver-skill blend with per-track-type ratings (superspeedway, intermediate, short track, road course), attrition modeled as a first-class component of every forecast, and manufacturer effects. Title odds run through a format-aware championship simulator that encodes the 2026 Chase and the 2017-2025 elimination playoffs for historical backtesting, with the playoff projection gated on a passing seven-season backtest. Runs on the real 2026 Cup season: official results flow from NASCAR's public feeds into a committed, reviewable snapshot with per-stage results captured. Deployed site, scheduled refresh pipeline, and public forward-eval grading every round.
Datasets
- NASCAR official feeds (results + stages, snapshotted to committed files)
- Cup Series history 2018 onward (backfilled archive)
Model components
- Driver-skill model
- track-type-ratings
- dnf-hazard-composition
- chase-championship-monte-carlo
- Standings projection
Shared core modules
- Probability calibration
- Championship simulation
- Standings projection
- Driver-skill ratings
- Uncertainty intervals
- Forward evaluation
- Drift monitoring
- Gated model promotion
- Leakage guards
- Predictor interfaces
Tags
- stock-car
- ovals
- stage-racing
- chase-playoffs
- calibrated probabilities
- race simulation
Registered 2026-06-15
Related projects
View all →
F1 Predictions
Formula 1
Calibrated race-outcome forecasts for every Formula 1 Grand Prix.
Formula E Predictions
Formula E
Race and championship forecasts for the ABB FIA Formula E World Championship.
IndyCar Predictions
IndyCar
Race and championship forecasts for the NTT IndyCar Series.