Round 7: FORUM8 Rally Japan

Round 07

FORUM8 Rally Japan

TarmacResult + Forecast

Rally

FORUM8 Rally Japan

Japan

Surface

Tarmac

One rally classification each round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated rally angles

MODEL

Model favours Takamoto Katsuta (22%) over Sami Pajari (13%) for the rally win.

SURFACE

Run on tarmac — sealed tarmac rewards precision and grip over the rough-road pace that wins on gravel.

VERDICT

The rally forecast missed the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.0 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

OGI

Sébastien Ogier

Toyota

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P16

Predicted P3

Race Winner

EVA

Elfyn Evans

Toyota

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P25

Predicted P5

PAJ

Sami Pajari

Toyota

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P13

Predicted P2

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Rally

Win vs podium probability

Katsuta

22%49%

Pajari

13%46%

Ogier

6%13%

Neuville

5%16%

Evans

12%35%

Lappi

4%9%

Rossel

4%11%

Fourmaux

6%10%

Paddon

3%8%

Virves

2%7%

Greensmith

2%7%

Gryazin

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Crew	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	Takamoto Katsuta Toyota	22%	49%	P1–P12	High	P4
2	Sami Pajari Toyota	13%	46%	P1–P13	High	P3
3	Sébastien Ogier Toyota	6%	13%	P2–P16	High	P2
4	Thierry Neuville Hyundai	5%	16%	P2–P18	High	P6
5	Elfyn Evans Toyota	12%	35%	P4–P25	Medium	P1
6	Esapekka Lappi Hyundai	4%	9%	P2–P20	Medium	—
7	Léo Rossel Citroen	4%	11%	P2–P18	High	—
8	Adrien Fourmaux Hyundai	6%	10%	P4–P26	Medium	P5
9	Hayden Paddon Hyundai	3%	8%	P3–P22	Medium	P7
10	Robert Virves Skoda	2%	7%	P3–P22	Medium	—
11	Gus Greensmith Toyota	2%	7%	P3–P22	Medium	—
12	Nikolay Gryazin Lancia	2%	7%	P3–P22	Medium	P9
13	Oliver Solberg Toyota	4%	8%	P11–P32	Medium	P21
14	Daniel Sordo Hyundai	1%	4%	P5–P27	Medium	—
15	Yohan Rossel Lancia	1%	3%	P8–P30	Medium	—
16	Fau Zaldivar Skoda	1%	6%	P4–P26	Medium	—
17	Alejandro Cachón Toyota	1%	4%	P7–P29	Medium	—
18	Roope Korhonen Toyota	1%	5%	P5–P27	Medium	—
19	Roberto Daprà Skoda	1%	4%	P6–P28	Medium	—
20	Andreas Mikkelsen Skoda	1%	5%	P5–P27	Medium	—
21	Diego Domínguez Toyota	1%	5%	P5–P27	Medium	—
22	Arthur Pelamourgues Hyundai	1%	4%	P7–P29	Medium	—
23	Jari-Matti Latvala Toyota	1%	4%	P5–P27	Medium	—
24	Alejandro Galanti Toyota	1%	5%	P5–P27	Medium	—
25	Teemu Suninen Toyota	1%	3%	P8–P30	Medium	—
26	Joshua Mcerlean Ford	0%	2%	P22–P35	High	P10
27	Eric Camilli Skoda	1%	3%	P8–P31	Low	—
28	Emil Lindholm Skoda	1%	3%	P7–P30	Low	—
29	Taylor Gill Skoda	1%	4%	P6–P29	Low	—
30	Mārtinš Sesks Ford	0%	1%	P25–P35	High	—
31	Jon Armstrong Ford	0%	1%	P30–P36	High	P8
32	Lorenzo Bertelli Toyota	0%	3%	P10–P32	Medium	—
33	Grégoire Munster Ford	0%	2%	P19–P34	High	—
34	Jourdan Serderidis Ford	0%	2%	P19–P34	High	—
35	Romet Jürgenson Ford	0%	2%	P19–P34	High	—
36	Matteo Fontana Ford	0%	1%	P34–P36	High	—

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Takamoto Katsuta

22.3% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Crews Forecast

Surface

tarmac

Tap any row in the classification above to open a crew’s per-rally forecast and season form.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Katsuta

22%49%

Pajari

13%46%

Ogier

6%13%

Neuville

5%16%

Evans

12%35%

Lappi

4%9%

Rossel

4%11%

Fourmaux

6%10%

Paddon

3%8%

Virves

2%7%

Greensmith

2%7%

Gryazin

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual — rally

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 7 of 11 classified within three places. ·NC marks crews not classified in the rally.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
KAT
PAJ
OGI
NEU
EVA
LAP
ROL
FOU
PAD
VIR
GRE
GRN
SOL
SOR
ROS
ZAF
CAC
KOR
DAP
MIK
DOD
PEL
LAT
GAL
SUN
MCE
CAM
LIN
GIL
SES
ARM
BER
MUN
SER
JUR
FON

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	KAT	PAJ	OGI	NEU	EVA	LAP	ROL	FOU	PAD	VIR	GRE	GRN
KAT	—	56	62	70	83	72	69	85	76	78	79	79
PAJ	44	—	58	64	80	67	63	82	73	74	73	74
OGI	38	42	—	57	75	61	56	76	66	67	68	68
NEU	30	36	43	—	69	53	49	72	59	60	62	62
EVA	17	20	26	31	—	34	30	54	40	41	41	43
LAP	28	33	39	47	66	—	47	69	56	57	59	59
ROL	31	37	44	51	70	53	—	72	60	62	62	62
FOU	15	18	24	28	46	31	28	—	36	37	38	39
PAD	24	27	34	41	60	44	40	64	—	51	52	53
VIR	22	26	33	40	59	43	39	63	49	—	51	51
GRE	21	27	32	38	59	41	38	62	48	49	—	51
GRN	21	26	32	38	57	41	38	61	47	49	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
KAT
PAJ
OGI
NEU
EVA
LAP
ROL
FOU
PAD
VIR
GRE
GRN
SOL
SOR
ROS
ZAF
CAC
KOR
DAP
MIK
DOD
PEL
LAT
GAL
SUN
MCE
CAM
LIN
GIL
SES
ARM
BER
MUN
SER
JUR
FON

beats ↓ / →	KAT	PAJ	OGI	NEU	EVA	LAP	ROL	FOU	PAD	VIR	GRE	GRN
KAT	—	56	62	70	83	72	69	85	76	78	79	79
PAJ	44	—	58	64	80	67	63	82	73	74	73	74
OGI	38	42	—	57	75	61	56	76	66	67	68	68
NEU	30	36	43	—	69	53	49	72	59	60	62	62
EVA	17	20	26	31	—	34	30	54	40	41	41	43
LAP	28	33	39	47	66	—	47	69	56	57	59	59
ROL	31	37	44	51	70	53	—	72	60	62	62	62
FOU	15	18	24	28	46	31	28	—	36	37	38	39
PAD	24	27	34	41	60	44	40	64	—	51	52	53
VIR	22	26	33	40	59	43	39	63	49	—	51	51
GRE	21	27	32	38	59	41	38	62	48	49	—	51
GRN	21	26	32	38	57	41	38	61	47	49	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
KAT
PAJ
OGI
NEU
EVA
LAP
ROL
FOU
PAD
VIR
GRE
GRN
SOL
SOR
ROS
ZAF
CAC
KOR
DAP
MIK
DOD
PEL
LAT
GAL
SUN
MCE
CAM
LIN
GIL
SES
ARM
BER
MUN
SER
JUR
FON

beats ↓ / →	KAT	PAJ	OGI	NEU	EVA	LAP	ROL	FOU	PAD	VIR	GRE	GRN
KAT	—	56	62	70	83	72	69	85	76	78	79	79
PAJ	44	—	58	64	80	67	63	82	73	74	73	74
OGI	38	42	—	57	75	61	56	76	66	67	68	68
NEU	30	36	43	—	69	53	49	72	59	60	62	62
EVA	17	20	26	31	—	34	30	54	40	41	41	43
LAP	28	33	39	47	66	—	47	69	56	57	59	59
ROL	31	37	44	51	70	53	—	72	60	62	62	62
FOU	15	18	24	28	46	31	28	—	36	37	38	39
PAD	24	27	34	41	60	44	40	64	—	51	52	53
VIR	22	26	33	40	59	43	39	63	49	—	51	51
GRE	21	27	32	38	59	41	38	62	48	49	—	51
GRN	21	26	32	38	57	41	38	61	47	49	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
KAT
PAJ
OGI
NEU
EVA
LAP
ROL
FOU
PAD
VIR
GRE
GRN
SOL
SOR
ROS
ZAF
CAC
KOR
DAP
MIK
DOD
PEL
LAT
GAL
SUN
MCE
CAM
LIN
GIL
SES
ARM
BER
MUN
SER
JUR
FON

beats ↓ / →	KAT	PAJ	OGI	NEU	EVA	LAP	ROL	FOU	PAD	VIR	GRE	GRN
KAT	—	56	62	70	83	72	69	85	76	78	79	79
PAJ	44	—	58	64	80	67	63	82	73	74	73	74
OGI	38	42	—	57	75	61	56	76	66	67	68	68
NEU	30	36	43	—	69	53	49	72	59	60	62	62
EVA	17	20	26	31	—	34	30	54	40	41	41	43
LAP	28	33	39	47	66	—	47	69	56	57	59	59
ROL	31	37	44	51	70	53	—	72	60	62	62	62
FOU	15	18	24	28	46	31	28	—	36	37	38	39
PAD	24	27	34	41	60	44	40	64	—	51	52	53
VIR	22	26	33	40	59	43	39	63	49	—	51	51
GRE	21	27	32	38	59	41	38	62	48	49	—	51
GRN	21	26	32	38	57	41	38	61	47	49	49	—