RaceIQ · MotoGP · 2026
MotoGP, forecast.
Sprint, Grand Prix and championship forecasts for the premier class of motorcycle Grand Prix racing — a win and podium probability for every rider, and the rider- and manufacturer-title fights projected to the flag. Each round runs a Saturday sprint and a Sunday Grand Prix off the same qualifying grid. 17 of 22 rounds complete, on the same MotorsportVerse core that powers RaceIQ F1.
Next round · Predicted next
Phillip Island
AU · two races, modelled separately — Saturday sprint and Sunday Grand Prix.
Race Window
This round & beyond
Race Forecast · Next Round
Predicted Podium — Phillip Island
The model's top three picks for the Grand Prix at round 18. Projected race winner plus the two riders most likely to share the rostrum.
Win probability
0.0%
Win probability
0.0%
Win probability
0.0%Race Control
Latest Official Result
Round 17 · Lombok Grand Prix · ID
| Pos | Rider | Status |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | Marco Bezzecchi | WINNER |
| P2 |  Raul Fernandez | FINISHED |
| P3 | Jorge Martin | FINISHED |
| P4 |  Ai Ogura | FINISHED |
| P5 |  Pedro Acosta | FINISHED |
| P6 | Marc Marquez | FINISHED |
| P7 |  Alex Marquez | FINISHED |
| P8 |  Fabio Di Giannantonio | FINISHED |
| P9 |  Fabio Quartararo | FINISHED |
| P10 |  Enea Bastianini | FINISHED |
Championship Snapshot
Where the season stands
Championship
Riders · Top 5
- 10
Jorge Martin
Aprilia
- 20
Marc Marquez
Ducati
- 30
Marco Bezzecchi
Aprilia
- 40
Ai Ogura
Aprilia
- 50
Pedro Acosta
KTM
Manufacturers
Team Standings
P1
Aprilia
0
P2
Ducati
0
P3
KTM
0
Next Round
R18
Phillip Island
Podium Accuracy
0%
17 rounds graded
Biggest Mover
Marco Bezzecchi
+0 pts last round
Title Favourite
0%
Jorge Martin
Championship Leader
Jorge Martin
Aprilia · Aprilia leads teams
0
Projected Final Points · Jorge Martin
0
projected (429–471 range) · 355 pts now · 5 of 22 rounds left
Constellation
The manufacturers behind the grid
5 manufacturers build the 2026 MotoGP field — Ducati, Aprilia, KTM, Yamaha and Honda, each chasing its own world title alongside the riders.
Track record
Graded against every result
Every forecast is scored against the official classification once the chequered flag drops on both races of the round — sprint and Grand Prix — no cherry-picking. The figures below cover the season so far.
How it works
Results → model → forecast
From each round's finishing orders to a probability for every car — here is the path each forecast travels before it reaches you.
Step 1 / 3
MotoGP results
- 1
MotoGP results
Sprint and Grand Prix finishing orders, grids and championship standings ingested after every round.
- 2
The model
A rider-form model — qualifying position, recent form and head-to-head history carry the signal. It re-trains as the season unfolds, then weighs every rider in the field.
- 3
Race forecast
Probabilities for win, podium, top six and top ten — for both the Saturday sprint and the Sunday Grand Prix.
What you get
Every read, one tap away
How the model works
Under the hood
Built to be checked
No black box, no cherry-picked highlights. The system is automated, time-stamped and open — so you can verify every claim yourself.
Re-trained every round
An automated pipeline folds in the latest sprint and Grand Prix result before the next round — recent form and grid position, no manual intervention.
Time-stamped forecasts
Every forecast carries the moment it was generated, so freshness is never ambiguous. Last refreshed Oct 13, 2026.
Open methodology, open source
The full pipeline and the exact accuracy scoring are public on GitHub — every number on this site is reproducible.
One MotorsportVerse core
Built on the same motorsport-core that powers RaceIQ F1, with 17 MotoGP rounds graded so far this season.
Questions
Good to know
Is this betting or gambling advice?
No. RaceIQ MotoGP is a personal project published for education and entertainment. The forecasts are model outputs and should not be used for betting or any form of gambling. The project is not affiliated with MotoGP, Dorna, the FIM, or any team.
How accurate is it, really?
Every predicted finishing order is graded against the official classification once each race is over — both the sprint and the Grand Prix of every round. The live numbers are published in full on the accuracy report, including the races where the model got it wrong.
Why is MotoGP a good fit for a model?
MotoGP packs a deep field of world-class riders into a tight, repeatable format — a Saturday sprint and a Sunday Grand Prix off the same grid, at the same circuits every year. Rider form, qualifying position and head-to-head history carry a strong, learnable signal, and the two races are modelled separately because they reward slightly different things.
How fresh are the forecasts?
Forecasts are regenerated every race round and time-stamped, so you always know how recent a prediction is. “Next up” is the upcoming round; results land for both races as soon as they are official.
Is it open source?
Yes. The full data pipeline, the model, and the exact accuracy scoring are public on GitHub, so every figure on this site is reproducible. RaceIQ MotoGP runs on the same MotorsportVerse core that powers RaceIQ F1.
What data feeds the model?
Sprint and Grand Prix results, starting grids and championship standings, ingested after every round of the MotoGP season.
Lights out
Ready before the grid forms
Open the next-round forecast — sprint and Grand Prix — then judge it against the result. That is the whole deal.