Round 19: Sepang — RaceIQ MotoGP

Round 19

🏁Sepang

Sprint + Grand PrixUpcoming Forecast

Venue

Sepang

Weekend Format

Grand PrixSprint

Two scored races each round.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Wide-open Grand Prix: Marco Bezzecchi leads the win market at just 13%, with Jorge Martin right behind on 12%.

TITLE

Title fight: Jorge Martin (69%) vs Marco Bezzecchi (24%), 29 riders still mathematically in it.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Jorge Martin

Aprilia

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P11

Projected Winner

Marco Bezzecchi

Aprilia

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P11

Ai Ogura

Aprilia

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P12

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Bezzecchi

13%36%

Martin

12%35%

Ogura

11%31%

Fernandez

9%26%

Marquez

8%25%

Giannantonio

8%24%

Marquez

8%24%

Acosta

6%16%

Bagnaia

5%15%

Aldeguer

4%13%

Zarco

2%6%

Bastianini

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Rider	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence
1	Marco Bezzecchi Aprilia	13%	36%	P1–P11	High
2	Jorge Martin Aprilia	12%	35%	P1–P11	High
3	Ai Ogura Aprilia	11%	31%	P1–P12	High
4	Raul Fernandez Aprilia	9%	26%	P2–P13	High
5	Marc Marquez Ducati	8%	25%	P2–P13	High
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio Ducati	8%	24%	P2–P14	High
7	Alex Marquez Ducati	8%	24%	P2–P13	High
8	Pedro Acosta KTM	6%	16%	P2–P16	Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia Ducati	5%	15%	P3–P16	Medium
10	Fermin Aldeguer Ducati	4%	13%	P3–P18	Medium
11	Johann Zarco Honda	2%	6%	P5–P22	Low
12	Enea Bastianini KTM	2%	5%	P6–P22	Medium
13	Brad Binder KTM	2%	5%	P6–P22	Medium
14	Franco Morbidelli Ducati	2%	5%	P6–P22	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona Ducati	1%	4%	P6–P23	Low
16	Luca Marini Honda	1%	5%	P6–P23	Low
17	Joan Mir Honda	1%	4%	P7–P23	Medium
18	Diogo Moreira Honda	1%	4%	P8–P24	Medium
19	Lorenzo Savadori Aprilia	1%	3%	P8–P25	Low
20	Pol Espargaro KTM	1%	3%	P9–P26	Low
21	Fabio Quartararo Yamaha	1%	2%	P11–P27	Medium
22	Maverick Viñales KTM	1%	2%	P12–P28	Medium
23	Jonas Folger KTM	0%	1%	P13–P28	Medium
24	Jack Miller Yamaha	0%	1%	P13–P28	Medium
25	Michele Pirro Ducati	0%	1%	P14–P28	Medium
26	Alex Rins Yamaha	0%	1%	P14–P29	Medium
27	Toprak Razgatlioglu Yamaha	0%	1%	P17–P29	High
28	Augusto Fernandez Yamaha	0%	1%	P17–P29	High
29	Cal Crutchlow Honda	0%	1%	P17–P29	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Marco Bezzecchi

13.1% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Riders Forecast

Race

Grand Prix

Tap any row in the classification above to open a rider’s per-race forecast and season form.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Bezzecchi

13%36%

Martin

12%35%

Ogura

11%31%

Fernandez

9%26%

Marquez

8%25%

Giannantonio

8%24%

Marquez

8%24%

Acosta

6%16%

Bagnaia

5%15%

Aldeguer

4%13%

Zarco

2%6%

Bastianini

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round — Grand Prix

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
BEZ
MAR
OGU
FE2
MAM
GIA
MAA
ACO
BAG
ALD
ZAR
BAS
BIN
MOF
LEC
MAL
MIR
MOR
SAV
ESP
QUA
VIN
FOL
MIL
PIR
RIN
RAZ
FER
CRU

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	BEZ	MAR	OGU	FE2	MAM	GIA	MAA	ACO	BAG	ALD	ZAR	BAS
BEZ	—	53	54	59	60	62	62	72	72	77	88	89
MAR	48	—	52	58	59	60	60	70	70	76	87	88
OGU	46	48	—	55	55	58	58	68	69	73	85	87
FE2	41	42	45	—	51	53	53	64	65	70	83	84
MAM	40	41	45	49	—	51	52	63	63	69	82	84
GIA	39	40	42	47	49	—	50	61	62	68	81	83
MAA	38	40	42	47	48	50	—	61	61	67	81	83
ACO	28	30	32	36	37	39	39	—	51	57	74	75
BAG	28	30	32	35	37	38	39	49	—	57	74	74
ALD	23	24	27	30	31	32	33	43	43	—	68	70
ZAR	12	13	15	17	18	19	19	26	26	33	—	51
BAS	11	12	13	16	16	17	17	25	26	30	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
BEZ
MAR
OGU
FE2
MAM
GIA
MAA
ACO
BAG
ALD
ZAR
BAS
BIN
MOF
LEC
MAL
MIR
MOR
SAV
ESP
QUA
VIN
FOL
MIL
PIR
RIN
RAZ
FER
CRU

beats ↓ / →	BEZ	MAR	OGU	FE2	MAM	GIA	MAA	ACO	BAG	ALD	ZAR	BAS
BEZ	—	53	54	59	60	62	62	72	72	77	88	89
MAR	48	—	52	58	59	60	60	70	70	76	87	88
OGU	46	48	—	55	55	58	58	68	69	73	85	87
FE2	41	42	45	—	51	53	53	64	65	70	83	84
MAM	40	41	45	49	—	51	52	63	63	69	82	84
GIA	39	40	42	47	49	—	50	61	62	68	81	83
MAA	38	40	42	47	48	50	—	61	61	67	81	83
ACO	28	30	32	36	37	39	39	—	51	57	74	75
BAG	28	30	32	35	37	38	39	49	—	57	74	74
ALD	23	24	27	30	31	32	33	43	43	—	68	70
ZAR	12	13	15	17	18	19	19	26	26	33	—	51
BAS	11	12	13	16	16	17	17	25	26	30	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
BEZ
MAR
OGU
FE2
MAM
GIA
MAA
ACO
BAG
ALD
ZAR
BAS
BIN
MOF
LEC
MAL
MIR
MOR
SAV
ESP
QUA
VIN
FOL
MIL
PIR
RIN
RAZ
FER
CRU

beats ↓ / →	BEZ	MAR	OGU	FE2	MAM	GIA	MAA	ACO	BAG	ALD	ZAR	BAS
BEZ	—	53	54	59	60	62	62	72	72	77	88	89
MAR	48	—	52	58	59	60	60	70	70	76	87	88
OGU	46	48	—	55	55	58	58	68	69	73	85	87
FE2	41	42	45	—	51	53	53	64	65	70	83	84
MAM	40	41	45	49	—	51	52	63	63	69	82	84
GIA	39	40	42	47	49	—	50	61	62	68	81	83
MAA	38	40	42	47	48	50	—	61	61	67	81	83
ACO	28	30	32	36	37	39	39	—	51	57	74	75
BAG	28	30	32	35	37	38	39	49	—	57	74	74
ALD	23	24	27	30	31	32	33	43	43	—	68	70
ZAR	12	13	15	17	18	19	19	26	26	33	—	51
BAS	11	12	13	16	16	17	17	25	26	30	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
BEZ
MAR
OGU
FE2
MAM
GIA
MAA
ACO
BAG
ALD
ZAR
BAS
BIN
MOF
LEC
MAL
MIR
MOR
SAV
ESP
QUA
VIN
FOL
MIL
PIR
RIN
RAZ
FER
CRU

beats ↓ / →	BEZ	MAR	OGU	FE2	MAM	GIA	MAA	ACO	BAG	ALD	ZAR	BAS
BEZ	—	53	54	59	60	62	62	72	72	77	88	89
MAR	48	—	52	58	59	60	60	70	70	76	87	88
OGU	46	48	—	55	55	58	58	68	69	73	85	87
FE2	41	42	45	—	51	53	53	64	65	70	83	84
MAM	40	41	45	49	—	51	52	63	63	69	82	84
GIA	39	40	42	47	49	—	50	61	62	68	81	83
MAA	38	40	42	47	48	50	—	61	61	67	81	83
ACO	28	30	32	36	37	39	39	—	51	57	74	75
BAG	28	30	32	35	37	38	39	49	—	57	74	74
ALD	23	24	27	30	31	32	33	43	43	—	68	70
ZAR	12	13	15	17	18	19	19	26	26	33	—	51
BAS	11	12	13	16	16	17	17	25	26	30	49	—