Round 9: Monaco — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 09

Monaco

Street CircuitDoubleheader · Race 1 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

Monaco

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race — the first of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours M. Evans (29%) over E. Mortara (23%).

DOUBLEHEADER

The first race of the Monaco doubleheader weekend — form shown here carries straight into the second race, on a walled street layout.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 7.4 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

M. Evans

Jaguar TCS Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P6

Predicted P1

Race Winner

N. de Vries

Mahindra Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P8–P18

Predicted P15

J. M. Martí

CUPRA KIRO

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P15

Predicted P11

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Evans

29%70%

Mortara

23%63%

Wehrlein

10%32%

Rowland

7%24%

Müller

5%19%

Dennis

5%17%

Buemi

4%16%

Costa

4%13%

Cassidy

3%11%

Ticktum

2%9%

Martí

2%8%

Vergne

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	29%	70%	P1–P6	High	P2
2	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	23%	63%	P1–P6	High	P17
3	P. Wehrlein Porsche	10%	32%	P2–P9	High	P18
4	O. Rowland Nissan	7%	24%	P2–P11	High	P15
5	N. Müller Porsche	5%	19%	P2–P12	Medium	P11
6	J. Dennis Andretti	5%	17%	P2–P12	Medium	—
7	S. Buemi Envision Racing	4%	16%	P3–P12	High	P5
8	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	4%	13%	P3–P13	Medium	—
9	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	3%	11%	P3–P14	Low	P9
10	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	2%	9%	P4–P14	Medium	P12
11	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	2%	8%	P4–P15	Low	P3
12	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	1%	4%	P6–P17	Low	P16
13	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	3%	P7–P18	Low	P7
14	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	1%	3%	P8–P18	Medium	P6
15	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	1%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P1
16	F. Drugovich Andretti	0%	2%	P9–P18	High	P4
17	M. Günther DS Penske	0%	2%	P9–P19	Medium	P10
18	N. Nato Nissan	0%	2%	P9–P19	Medium	P14
19	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	0%	P15–P20	High	P8
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	0%	P17–P20	High	P13

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

M. Evans

29.4% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Monaco

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Evans

29%70%

Mortara

23%63%

Wehrlein

10%32%

Rowland

7%24%

Müller

5%19%

Dennis

5%17%

Buemi

4%16%

Costa

4%13%

Cassidy

3%11%

Ticktum

2%9%

Martí

2%8%

Vergne

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 4 of 18 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
WEH
ROW
MUE
DEN
BUE
DAC
CAS
TIC
MAR
JEV
BAR
ERI
DEV
DRU
GUE
NAT
DIG
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	WEH	ROW	MUE	DEN	BUE	DAC	CAS	TIC
EVA	—	55	75	81	84	85	86	89	91	92
MOR	45	—	71	77	82	84	84	87	89	91
WEH	25	29	—	59	65	68	68	72	75	79
ROW	19	23	41	—	56	59	59	64	68	74
MUE	16	18	35	44	—	53	53	58	63	67
DEN	15	16	32	41	47	—	51	54	59	65
BUE	14	16	32	41	47	49	—	55	59	65
DAC	11	13	28	36	42	46	45	—	54	61
CAS	9	12	25	32	37	41	41	46	—	57
TIC	8	9	21	27	33	35	35	39	43	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
WEH
ROW
MUE
DEN
BUE
DAC
CAS
TIC
MAR
JEV
BAR
ERI
DEV
DRU
GUE
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	WEH	ROW	MUE	DEN	BUE	DAC	CAS	TIC
EVA	—	55	75	81	84	85	86	89	91	92
MOR	45	—	71	77	82	84	84	87	89	91
WEH	25	29	—	59	65	68	68	72	75	79
ROW	19	23	41	—	56	59	59	64	68	74
MUE	16	18	35	44	—	53	53	58	63	67
DEN	15	16	32	41	47	—	51	54	59	65
BUE	14	16	32	41	47	49	—	55	59	65
DAC	11	13	28	36	42	46	45	—	54	61
CAS	9	12	25	32	37	41	41	46	—	57
TIC	8	9	21	27	33	35	35	39	43	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
WEH
ROW
MUE
DEN
BUE
DAC
CAS
TIC
MAR
JEV
BAR
ERI
DEV
DRU
GUE
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	WEH	ROW	MUE	DEN	BUE	DAC	CAS	TIC
EVA	—	55	75	81	84	85	86	89	91	92
MOR	45	—	71	77	82	84	84	87	89	91
WEH	25	29	—	59	65	68	68	72	75	79
ROW	19	23	41	—	56	59	59	64	68	74
MUE	16	18	35	44	—	53	53	58	63	67
DEN	15	16	32	41	47	—	51	54	59	65
BUE	14	16	32	41	47	49	—	55	59	65
DAC	11	13	28	36	42	46	45	—	54	61
CAS	9	12	25	32	37	41	41	46	—	57
TIC	8	9	21	27	33	35	35	39	43	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
WEH
ROW
MUE
DEN
BUE
DAC
CAS
TIC
MAR
JEV
BAR
ERI
DEV
DRU
GUE
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	WEH	ROW	MUE	DEN	BUE	DAC	CAS	TIC
EVA	—	55	75	81	84	85	86	89	91	92
MOR	45	—	71	77	82	84	84	87	89	91
WEH	25	29	—	59	65	68	68	72	75	79
ROW	19	23	41	—	56	59	59	64	68	74
MUE	16	18	35	44	—	53	53	58	63	67
DEN	15	16	32	41	47	—	51	54	59	65
BUE	14	16	32	41	47	49	—	55	59	65
DAC	11	13	28	36	42	46	45	—	54	61
CAS	9	12	25	32	37	41	41	46	—	57
TIC	8	9	21	27	33	35	35	39	43	—