Round 8: Berlin II — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 08

🏁Berlin II

Street CircuitDoubleheader · Race 2 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

Berlin II

Germany

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race — the second of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours E. Mortara (28%) over M. Evans (17%).

DOUBLEHEADER

The second race of the Berlin doubleheader weekend — drivers arrive with a race's worth of reads on these exact corners, on a walled street layout.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.8 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

O. Rowland

Nissan

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P13

Predicted P9

Race Winner

M. Evans

Jaguar TCS Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P8

Predicted P2

P. Wehrlein

Porsche

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P11

Predicted P6

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Mortara

28%66%

Evans

17%51%

Costa

11%35%

Müller

9%30%

Ticktum

7%21%

Wehrlein

6%20%

Martí

5%16%

Dennis

4%12%

Rowland

3%13%

Cassidy

3%11%

Buemi

3%10%

Barnard

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	28%	66%	P1–P6	High	P7
2	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	17%	51%	P1–P8	High	P1
3	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	11%	35%	P1–P9	High	P18
4	N. Müller Porsche	9%	30%	P2–P10	High	P13
5	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	7%	21%	P2–P11	Medium	P14
6	P. Wehrlein Porsche	6%	20%	P2–P11	Medium	P3
7	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	5%	16%	P2–P12	Medium	P12
8	J. Dennis Andretti	4%	12%	P3–P13	Medium	P6
9	O. Rowland Nissan	3%	13%	P3–P13	Medium	P2
10	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	3%	11%	P3–P13	Medium	—
11	S. Buemi Envision Racing	3%	10%	P4–P14	Medium	P4
12	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	3%	P7–P17	Medium	P11
13	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	1%	3%	P7–P17	Medium	P8
14	M. Günther DS Penske	1%	3%	P8–P18	Medium	P15
15	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	1%	3%	P8–P18	Medium	—
16	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	1%	2%	P9–P18	Medium	P10
17	F. Drugovich Andretti	0%	1%	P12–P19	High	P9
18	N. Nato Nissan	0%	0%	P13–P20	High	P5
19	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P14–P20	High	P16
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	0%	P16–P20	High	P17

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

E. Mortara

27.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Berlin II

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Mortara

28%66%

Evans

17%51%

Costa

11%35%

Müller

9%30%

Ticktum

7%21%

Wehrlein

6%20%

Martí

5%16%

Dennis

4%12%

Rowland

3%13%

Cassidy

3%11%

Buemi

3%10%

Barnard

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 7 of 18 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
MOR
EVA
DAC
MUE
TIC
WEH
MAR
DEN
ROW
CAS
BUE
BAR
JEV
GUE
DEV
ERI
DRU
NAT
DIG
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	MOR	EVA	DAC	MUE	TIC	WEH	MAR	DEN	ROW	CAS
MOR	—	61	70	75	81	82	86	89	89	90
EVA	39	—	61	66	73	74	79	83	82	84
DAC	30	39	—	55	64	64	70	76	76	78
MUE	25	34	45	—	58	60	67	72	72	74
TIC	19	27	36	42	—	50	58	64	64	66
WEH	18	26	36	40	50	—	58	63	64	65
MAR	14	21	30	33	42	42	—	56	57	57
DEN	12	17	24	28	36	37	44	—	50	53
ROW	11	18	24	28	36	36	43	50	—	52
CAS	10	16	22	26	34	35	43	47	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
MOR
EVA
DAC
MUE
TIC
WEH
MAR
DEN
ROW
CAS
BUE
BAR
JEV
GUE
DEV
ERI
DRU
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	MOR	EVA	DAC	MUE	TIC	WEH	MAR	DEN	ROW	CAS
MOR	—	61	70	75	81	82	86	89	89	90
EVA	39	—	61	66	73	74	79	83	82	84
DAC	30	39	—	55	64	64	70	76	76	78
MUE	25	34	45	—	58	60	67	72	72	74
TIC	19	27	36	42	—	50	58	64	64	66
WEH	18	26	36	40	50	—	58	63	64	65
MAR	14	21	30	33	42	42	—	56	57	57
DEN	12	17	24	28	36	37	44	—	50	53
ROW	11	18	24	28	36	36	43	50	—	52
CAS	10	16	22	26	34	35	43	47	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
MOR
EVA
DAC
MUE
TIC
WEH
MAR
DEN
ROW
CAS
BUE
BAR
JEV
GUE
DEV
ERI
DRU
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	MOR	EVA	DAC	MUE	TIC	WEH	MAR	DEN	ROW	CAS
MOR	—	61	70	75	81	82	86	89	89	90
EVA	39	—	61	66	73	74	79	83	82	84
DAC	30	39	—	55	64	64	70	76	76	78
MUE	25	34	45	—	58	60	67	72	72	74
TIC	19	27	36	42	—	50	58	64	64	66
WEH	18	26	36	40	50	—	58	63	64	65
MAR	14	21	30	33	42	42	—	56	57	57
DEN	12	17	24	28	36	37	44	—	50	53
ROW	11	18	24	28	36	36	43	50	—	52
CAS	10	16	22	26	34	35	43	47	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
MOR
EVA
DAC
MUE
TIC
WEH
MAR
DEN
ROW
CAS
BUE
BAR
JEV
GUE
DEV
ERI
DRU
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	MOR	EVA	DAC	MUE	TIC	WEH	MAR	DEN	ROW	CAS
MOR	—	61	70	75	81	82	86	89	89	90
EVA	39	—	61	66	73	74	79	83	82	84
DAC	30	39	—	55	64	64	70	76	76	78
MUE	25	34	45	—	58	60	67	72	72	74
TIC	19	27	36	42	—	50	58	64	64	66
WEH	18	26	36	40	50	—	58	63	64	65
MAR	14	21	30	33	42	42	—	56	57	57
DEN	12	17	24	28	36	37	44	—	50	53
ROW	11	18	24	28	36	36	43	50	—	52
CAS	10	16	22	26	34	35	43	47	49	—