Round 7: Berlin — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 07

🏁Berlin

Street CircuitDoubleheader · Race 1 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

Berlin

Germany

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race — the first of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours E. Mortara (21%) over P. Wehrlein (21%).

DOUBLEHEADER

The first race of the Berlin doubleheader weekend — form shown here carries straight into the second race, on a walled street layout.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.0 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

N. Cassidy

Citroën Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P16

Predicted P11

Race Winner

N. Müller

Porsche

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P12

Predicted P6

O. Rowland

Nissan

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P15

Predicted P10

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Wehrlein

21%59%

Mortara

21%56%

Evans

16%48%

Costa

16%47%

Ticktum

5%17%

Müller

5%15%

Buemi

4%14%

Martí

3%10%

Dennis

2%8%

Rowland

2%6%

Cassidy

2%5%

Vergne

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	P. Wehrlein Porsche	21%	59%	P1–P6	High	P19
2	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	21%	56%	P1–P6	High	P4
3	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	16%	48%	P1–P7	High	P6
4	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	16%	47%	P1–P7	High	P10
5	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	5%	17%	P2–P11	High	—
6	N. Müller Porsche	5%	15%	P3–P12	High	P1
7	S. Buemi Envision Racing	4%	14%	P3–P12	High	P12
8	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	3%	10%	P4–P13	High	P7
9	J. Dennis Andretti	2%	8%	P4–P14	Low	P5
10	O. Rowland Nissan	2%	6%	P5–P15	Low	P3
11	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	2%	5%	P6–P16	Low	P2
12	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	1%	4%	P6–P17	Low	P14
13	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	1%	3%	P7–P17	Low	P16
14	M. Günther DS Penske	1%	2%	P8–P18	Low	P11
15	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	2%	P9–P18	High	P8
16	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	0%	1%	P9–P19	Low	P9
17	N. Nato Nissan	0%	1%	P10–P19	High	P18
18	F. Drugovich Andretti	0%	1%	P11–P20	High	P13
19	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P12–P20	High	P17
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	0%	P15–P20	High	P15

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

P. Wehrlein

20.9% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Berlin

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Wehrlein

21%59%

Mortara

21%56%

Evans

16%48%

Costa

16%47%

Ticktum

5%17%

Müller

5%15%

Buemi

4%14%

Martí

3%10%

Dennis

2%8%

Rowland

2%6%

Cassidy

2%5%

Vergne

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 8 of 19 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
EVA
DAC
TIC
MUE
BUE
MAR
DEN
ROW
CAS
JEV
ERI
GUE
BAR
DEV
NAT
DRU
DIG
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	EVA	DAC	TIC	MUE	BUE	MAR	DEN	ROW
WEH	—	50	57	58	81	83	84	89	91	93
MOR	50	—	56	57	80	82	84	88	90	93
EVA	43	44	—	50	77	79	80	85	88	91
DAC	42	43	50	—	75	79	80	84	87	91
TIC	19	20	23	25	—	52	55	63	69	75
MUE	17	18	21	21	48	—	53	61	67	73
BUE	16	17	20	20	45	47	—	58	64	70
MAR	12	12	15	16	37	39	42	—	56	63
DEN	9	10	12	13	31	33	36	44	—	57
ROW	7	7	9	9	25	27	30	37	43	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
EVA
DAC
TIC
MUE
BUE
MAR
DEN
ROW
CAS
JEV
ERI
GUE
BAR
DEV
NAT
DRU
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	EVA	DAC	TIC	MUE	BUE	MAR	DEN	ROW
WEH	—	50	57	58	81	83	84	89	91	93
MOR	50	—	56	57	80	82	84	88	90	93
EVA	43	44	—	50	77	79	80	85	88	91
DAC	42	43	50	—	75	79	80	84	87	91
TIC	19	20	23	25	—	52	55	63	69	75
MUE	17	18	21	21	48	—	53	61	67	73
BUE	16	17	20	20	45	47	—	58	64	70
MAR	12	12	15	16	37	39	42	—	56	63
DEN	9	10	12	13	31	33	36	44	—	57
ROW	7	7	9	9	25	27	30	37	43	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
EVA
DAC
TIC
MUE
BUE
MAR
DEN
ROW
CAS
JEV
ERI
GUE
BAR
DEV
NAT
DRU
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	EVA	DAC	TIC	MUE	BUE	MAR	DEN	ROW
WEH	—	50	57	58	81	83	84	89	91	93
MOR	50	—	56	57	80	82	84	88	90	93
EVA	43	44	—	50	77	79	80	85	88	91
DAC	42	43	50	—	75	79	80	84	87	91
TIC	19	20	23	25	—	52	55	63	69	75
MUE	17	18	21	21	48	—	53	61	67	73
BUE	16	17	20	20	45	47	—	58	64	70
MAR	12	12	15	16	37	39	42	—	56	63
DEN	9	10	12	13	31	33	36	44	—	57
ROW	7	7	9	9	25	27	30	37	43	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
EVA
DAC
TIC
MUE
BUE
MAR
DEN
ROW
CAS
JEV
ERI
GUE
BAR
DEV
NAT
DRU
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	EVA	DAC	TIC	MUE	BUE	MAR	DEN	ROW
WEH	—	50	57	58	81	83	84	89	91	93
MOR	50	—	56	57	80	82	84	88	90	93
EVA	43	44	—	50	77	79	80	85	88	91
DAC	42	43	50	—	75	79	80	84	87	91
TIC	19	20	23	25	—	52	55	63	69	75
MUE	17	18	21	21	48	—	53	61	67	73
BUE	16	17	20	20	45	47	—	58	64	70
MAR	12	12	15	16	37	39	42	—	56	63
DEN	9	10	12	13	31	33	36	44	—	57
ROW	7	7	9	9	25	27	30	37	43	—