Round 6: Madrid — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 06

Madrid

Permanent CircuitResult + Forecast

Venue

Madrid

Spain

Weekend Format

Permanent Circuit

One scored race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours E. Mortara (29%) over P. Wehrlein (20%).

CIRCUIT

Madrid runs on a permanent circuit — more overtaking room than the street venues, so race pace can recover a poor grid slot.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 4.1 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

M. Evans

Jaguar TCS Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P8

Predicted P3

Race Winner

A. Félix da Costa

Jaguar TCS Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P9

Predicted P4

P. Wehrlein

Porsche

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P7

Predicted P2

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Mortara

29%70%

Wehrlein

20%57%

Evans

14%42%

Costa

10%33%

Müller

5%16%

Buemi

4%14%

Rowland

4%14%

Martí

3%10%

Cassidy

3%10%

Ticktum

2%9%

Vergne

2%6%

Barnard

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	29%	70%	P1–P5	High	P5
2	P. Wehrlein Porsche	20%	57%	P1–P7	High	P3
3	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	14%	42%	P1–P8	High	P2
4	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	10%	33%	P2–P9	High	P1
5	N. Müller Porsche	5%	16%	P2–P12	Medium	P8
6	S. Buemi Envision Racing	4%	14%	P3–P13	Medium	P7
7	O. Rowland Nissan	4%	14%	P3–P13	Medium	P16
8	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	3%	10%	P3–P14	Low	P9
9	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	3%	10%	P3–P14	Low	P17
10	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	2%	9%	P4–P14	Medium	P4
11	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	2%	6%	P5–P16	Low	P14
12	T. Barnard DS Penske	2%	5%	P5–P16	Low	P19
13	J. Dennis Andretti	2%	5%	P5–P16	Low	P6
14	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	1%	3%	P7–P17	Medium	P18
15	M. Günther DS Penske	1%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P13
16	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	0%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P10
17	F. Drugovich Andretti	0%	1%	P12–P20	Medium	P15
18	N. Nato Nissan	0%	1%	P13–P20	High	P11
19	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P15–P20	High	P12
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	0%	P15–P20	High	P20

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

E. Mortara

28.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Permanent

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Circuit

Madrid

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A permanent race circuit — wider lines and more overtaking room than the street venues. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Mortara

29%70%

Wehrlein

20%57%

Evans

14%42%

Costa

10%33%

Müller

5%16%

Buemi

4%14%

Rowland

4%14%

Martí

3%10%

Cassidy

3%10%

Ticktum

2%9%

Vergne

2%6%

Barnard

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 10 of 20 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
MOR
WEH
EVA
DAC
MUE
BUE
ROW
MAR
CAS
TIC
JEV
BAR
DEN
DEV
GUE
ERI
DRU
NAT
DIG
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	MOR	WEH	EVA	DAC	MUE	BUE	ROW	MAR	CAS	TIC
MOR	—	60	69	75	86	89	89	91	91	92
WEH	40	—	61	66	82	84	84	87	87	89
EVA	31	39	—	56	74	78	76	81	82	84
DAC	26	34	44	—	69	72	71	77	77	81
MUE	14	18	26	31	—	53	53	59	59	63
BUE	11	16	22	28	47	—	51	57	58	61
ROW	11	16	24	29	47	49	—	57	57	62
MAR	9	13	19	23	41	43	43	—	50	55
CAS	9	13	18	23	41	42	43	50	—	55
TIC	8	11	16	19	37	39	38	45	45	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
MOR
WEH
EVA
DAC
MUE
BUE
ROW
MAR
CAS
TIC
JEV
BAR
DEN
DEV
GUE
ERI
DRU
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	MOR	WEH	EVA	DAC	MUE	BUE	ROW	MAR	CAS	TIC
MOR	—	60	69	75	86	89	89	91	91	92
WEH	40	—	61	66	82	84	84	87	87	89
EVA	31	39	—	56	74	78	76	81	82	84
DAC	26	34	44	—	69	72	71	77	77	81
MUE	14	18	26	31	—	53	53	59	59	63
BUE	11	16	22	28	47	—	51	57	58	61
ROW	11	16	24	29	47	49	—	57	57	62
MAR	9	13	19	23	41	43	43	—	50	55
CAS	9	13	18	23	41	42	43	50	—	55
TIC	8	11	16	19	37	39	38	45	45	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
MOR
WEH
EVA
DAC
MUE
BUE
ROW
MAR
CAS
TIC
JEV
BAR
DEN
DEV
GUE
ERI
DRU
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	MOR	WEH	EVA	DAC	MUE	BUE	ROW	MAR	CAS	TIC
MOR	—	60	69	75	86	89	89	91	91	92
WEH	40	—	61	66	82	84	84	87	87	89
EVA	31	39	—	56	74	78	76	81	82	84
DAC	26	34	44	—	69	72	71	77	77	81
MUE	14	18	26	31	—	53	53	59	59	63
BUE	11	16	22	28	47	—	51	57	58	61
ROW	11	16	24	29	47	49	—	57	57	62
MAR	9	13	19	23	41	43	43	—	50	55
CAS	9	13	18	23	41	42	43	50	—	55
TIC	8	11	16	19	37	39	38	45	45	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
MOR
WEH
EVA
DAC
MUE
BUE
ROW
MAR
CAS
TIC
JEV
BAR
DEN
DEV
GUE
ERI
DRU
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	MOR	WEH	EVA	DAC	MUE	BUE	ROW	MAR	CAS	TIC
MOR	—	60	69	75	86	89	89	91	91	92
WEH	40	—	61	66	82	84	84	87	87	89
EVA	31	39	—	56	74	78	76	81	82	84
DAC	26	34	44	—	69	72	71	77	77	81
MUE	14	18	26	31	—	53	53	59	59	63
BUE	11	16	22	28	47	—	51	57	58	61
ROW	11	16	24	29	47	49	—	57	57	62
MAR	9	13	19	23	41	43	43	—	50	55
CAS	9	13	18	23	41	42	43	50	—	55
TIC	8	11	16	19	37	39	38	45	45	—