Round 5: Jeddah II — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 05

Jeddah II

Street CircuitDoubleheader · Race 2 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

Jeddah II

Saudi Arabia

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race — the second of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours P. Wehrlein (28%) over E. Mortara (22%).

DOUBLEHEADER

The second race of the Jeddah doubleheader weekend — drivers arrive with a race's worth of reads on these exact corners, on a walled street layout.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.0 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

S. Buemi

Envision Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P16

Predicted P10

Race Winner

A. Félix da Costa

Jaguar TCS Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P13

Predicted P8

O. Rowland

Nissan

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P15

Predicted P9

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Wehrlein

28%68%

Mortara

22%60%

Müller

13%40%

Evans

10%37%

Cassidy

6%20%

Vries

5%18%

Dennis

4%16%

Costa

3%11%

Rowland

2%5%

Buemi

2%5%

Vergne

1%4%

Barnard

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	P. Wehrlein Porsche	28%	68%	P1–P6	High	P8
2	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	22%	60%	P1–P6	High	P4
3	N. Müller Porsche	13%	40%	P1–P8	High	P16
4	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	10%	37%	P1–P8	High	P7
5	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	6%	20%	P2–P11	Medium	P14
6	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	5%	18%	P2–P11	Medium	P20
7	J. Dennis Andretti	4%	16%	P3–P11	High	P19
8	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	3%	11%	P3–P13	Medium	P1
9	O. Rowland Nissan	2%	5%	P5–P15	Medium	P3
10	S. Buemi Envision Racing	2%	5%	P5–P16	Low	P2
11	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	1%	4%	P6–P16	Medium	P9
12	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	4%	P6–P16	Medium	P10
13	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	1%	3%	P7–P17	Medium	P6
14	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	1%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P13
15	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	0%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P5
16	M. Günther DS Penske	0%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P11
17	N. Nato Nissan	0%	1%	P11–P19	High	P17
18	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P11–P20	Medium	P18
19	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P13–P20	High	P15
20	F. Drugovich Andretti	0%	0%	P14–P20	High	P12

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

P. Wehrlein

27.9% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Jeddah II

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Wehrlein

28%68%

Mortara

22%60%

Müller

13%40%

Evans

10%37%

Cassidy

6%20%

Vries

5%18%

Dennis

4%16%

Costa

3%11%

Rowland

2%5%

Buemi

2%5%

Vergne

1%4%

Barnard

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 7 of 20 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
MUE
EVA
CAS
DEV
DEN
DAC
ROW
BUE
JEV
BAR
MAR
ERI
TIC
GUE
NAT
MAL
DIG
DRU

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	MUE	EVA	CAS	DEV	DEN	DAC	ROW	BUE
WEH	—	55	68	72	82	85	85	90	95	95
MOR	45	—	64	66	79	81	82	88	94	94
MUE	32	36	—	52	68	72	73	80	89	89
EVA	28	34	48	—	66	69	70	79	88	89
CAS	18	21	32	34	—	54	55	66	79	81
DEV	15	19	28	31	46	—	51	62	77	77
DEN	15	18	27	30	45	49	—	61	75	77
DAC	10	12	20	21	34	38	39	—	67	68
ROW	5	6	11	12	21	23	25	33	—	52
BUE	5	6	11	11	19	23	23	32	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
MUE
EVA
CAS
DEV
DEN
DAC
ROW
BUE
JEV
BAR
MAR
ERI
TIC
GUE
NAT
MAL
DIG
DRU

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	MUE	EVA	CAS	DEV	DEN	DAC	ROW	BUE
WEH	—	55	68	72	82	85	85	90	95	95
MOR	45	—	64	66	79	81	82	88	94	94
MUE	32	36	—	52	68	72	73	80	89	89
EVA	28	34	48	—	66	69	70	79	88	89
CAS	18	21	32	34	—	54	55	66	79	81
DEV	15	19	28	31	46	—	51	62	77	77
DEN	15	18	27	30	45	49	—	61	75	77
DAC	10	12	20	21	34	38	39	—	67	68
ROW	5	6	11	12	21	23	25	33	—	52
BUE	5	6	11	11	19	23	23	32	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
MUE
EVA
CAS
DEV
DEN
DAC
ROW
BUE
JEV
BAR
MAR
ERI
TIC
GUE
NAT
MAL
DIG
DRU

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	MUE	EVA	CAS	DEV	DEN	DAC	ROW	BUE
WEH	—	55	68	72	82	85	85	90	95	95
MOR	45	—	64	66	79	81	82	88	94	94
MUE	32	36	—	52	68	72	73	80	89	89
EVA	28	34	48	—	66	69	70	79	88	89
CAS	18	21	32	34	—	54	55	66	79	81
DEV	15	19	28	31	46	—	51	62	77	77
DEN	15	18	27	30	45	49	—	61	75	77
DAC	10	12	20	21	34	38	39	—	67	68
ROW	5	6	11	12	21	23	25	33	—	52
BUE	5	6	11	11	19	23	23	32	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
MUE
EVA
CAS
DEV
DEN
DAC
ROW
BUE
JEV
BAR
MAR
ERI
TIC
GUE
NAT
MAL
DIG
DRU

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	MUE	EVA	CAS	DEV	DEN	DAC	ROW	BUE
WEH	—	55	68	72	82	85	85	90	95	95
MOR	45	—	64	66	79	81	82	88	94	94
MUE	32	36	—	52	68	72	73	80	89	89
EVA	28	34	48	—	66	69	70	79	88	89
CAS	18	21	32	34	—	54	55	66	79	81
DEV	15	19	28	31	46	—	51	62	77	77
DEN	15	18	27	30	45	49	—	61	75	77
DAC	10	12	20	21	34	38	39	—	67	68
ROW	5	6	11	12	21	23	25	33	—	52
BUE	5	6	11	11	19	23	23	32	48	—