Round 4: Jeddah — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 04

Jeddah

Street CircuitDoubleheader · Race 1 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

Jeddah

Saudi Arabia

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race — the first of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours P. Wehrlein (21%) over E. Mortara (19%).

DOUBLEHEADER

The first race of the Jeddah doubleheader weekend — form shown here carries straight into the second race, on a walled street layout.

VERDICT

The forecast called the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 4.0 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

E. Mortara

Mahindra Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P8

Race Winner

P. Wehrlein

Porsche

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P7

M. Evans

Jaguar TCS Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P11

Predicted P4

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Wehrlein

21%55%

Mortara

19%50%

Müller

12%35%

Evans

7%26%

Dennis

8%26%

Rowland

7%23%

Vries

6%19%

Cassidy

6%18%

Martí

3%12%

Eriksson

3%10%

Costa

1%6%

Ticktum

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	P. Wehrlein Porsche	21%	55%	P1–P7	High	P1
2	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	19%	50%	P1–P8	High	P2
3	N. Müller Porsche	12%	35%	P1–P9	High	P4
4	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	7%	26%	P2–P11	Medium	P3
5	J. Dennis Andretti	8%	26%	P2–P11	Medium	P9
6	O. Rowland Nissan	7%	23%	P2–P11	Medium	P17
7	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	6%	19%	P2–P12	Medium	—
8	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	6%	18%	P2–P12	Medium	P6
9	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	3%	12%	P3–P14	Low	P14
10	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	3%	10%	P3–P14	Low	P18
11	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	1%	6%	P5–P16	Low	P5
12	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	2%	5%	P5–P16	Low	P12
13	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	4%	P7–P17	Medium	P10
14	S. Buemi Envision Racing	1%	3%	P7–P17	Medium	P7
15	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	1%	3%	P8–P18	Medium	P8
16	M. Günther DS Penske	1%	1%	P10–P19	Medium	P11
17	N. Nato Nissan	0%	1%	P12–P19	High	P13
18	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P13–P20	High	—
19	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P13–P20	High	P16
20	F. Drugovich Andretti	0%	0%	P16–P20	High	P15

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

P. Wehrlein

20.5% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Jeddah

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Wehrlein

21%55%

Mortara

19%50%

Müller

12%35%

Evans

7%26%

Dennis

8%26%

Rowland

7%23%

Vries

6%19%

Cassidy

6%18%

Martí

3%12%

Eriksson

3%10%

Costa

1%6%

Ticktum

2%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 8 of 18 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
MUE
EVA
DEN
ROW
DEV
CAS
MAR
ERI
DAC
TIC
BAR
BUE
JEV
GUE
NAT
MAL
DIG
DRU

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	MUE	EVA	DEN	ROW	DEV	CAS	MAR	ERI
WEH	—	53	64	72	72	73	77	79	85	86
MOR	47	—	61	70	69	72	75	77	84	85
MUE	36	39	—	58	59	61	66	67	77	79
EVA	28	31	42	—	50	52	58	60	71	72
DEN	28	31	41	50	—	53	58	59	71	72
ROW	27	28	39	48	47	—	55	56	67	70
DEV	23	25	34	42	42	45	—	50	63	65
CAS	22	23	33	40	41	44	50	—	63	65
MAR	15	16	23	29	29	33	37	37	—	52
ERI	14	15	21	28	28	30	35	35	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
MUE
EVA
DEN
ROW
DEV
CAS
MAR
ERI
DAC
TIC
BAR
BUE
JEV
GUE
NAT
MAL
DIG
DRU

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	MUE	EVA	DEN	ROW	DEV	CAS	MAR	ERI
WEH	—	53	64	72	72	73	77	79	85	86
MOR	47	—	61	70	69	72	75	77	84	85
MUE	36	39	—	58	59	61	66	67	77	79
EVA	28	31	42	—	50	52	58	60	71	72
DEN	28	31	41	50	—	53	58	59	71	72
ROW	27	28	39	48	47	—	55	56	67	70
DEV	23	25	34	42	42	45	—	50	63	65
CAS	22	23	33	40	41	44	50	—	63	65
MAR	15	16	23	29	29	33	37	37	—	52
ERI	14	15	21	28	28	30	35	35	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
MUE
EVA
DEN
ROW
DEV
CAS
MAR
ERI
DAC
TIC
BAR
BUE
JEV
GUE
NAT
MAL
DIG
DRU

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	MUE	EVA	DEN	ROW	DEV	CAS	MAR	ERI
WEH	—	53	64	72	72	73	77	79	85	86
MOR	47	—	61	70	69	72	75	77	84	85
MUE	36	39	—	58	59	61	66	67	77	79
EVA	28	31	42	—	50	52	58	60	71	72
DEN	28	31	41	50	—	53	58	59	71	72
ROW	27	28	39	48	47	—	55	56	67	70
DEV	23	25	34	42	42	45	—	50	63	65
CAS	22	23	33	40	41	44	50	—	63	65
MAR	15	16	23	29	29	33	37	37	—	52
ERI	14	15	21	28	28	30	35	35	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
WEH
MOR
MUE
EVA
DEN
ROW
DEV
CAS
MAR
ERI
DAC
TIC
BAR
BUE
JEV
GUE
NAT
MAL
DIG
DRU

beats ↓ / →	WEH	MOR	MUE	EVA	DEN	ROW	DEV	CAS	MAR	ERI
WEH	—	53	64	72	72	73	77	79	85	86
MOR	47	—	61	70	69	72	75	77	84	85
MUE	36	39	—	58	59	61	66	67	77	79
EVA	28	31	42	—	50	52	58	60	71	72
DEN	28	31	41	50	—	53	58	59	71	72
ROW	27	28	39	48	47	—	55	56	67	70
DEV	23	25	34	42	42	45	—	50	63	65
CAS	22	23	33	40	41	44	50	—	63	65
MAR	15	16	23	29	29	33	37	37	—	52
ERI	14	15	21	28	28	30	35	35	48	—