Round 2: Mexico City — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 02

Mexico City

Permanent CircuitResult + Forecast

Venue

Mexico City

Mexico

Weekend Format

Permanent Circuit

One scored race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours N. Cassidy (16%) over J. Dennis (14%).

CIRCUIT

Mexico City runs on a permanent circuit — more overtaking room than the street venues, so race pace can recover a poor grid slot.

VERDICT

The forecast called the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 3.8 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

E. Mortara

Mahindra Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P14

Predicted P5

Race Winner

N. Cassidy

Citroën Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P9

O. Rowland

Nissan

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P10

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Cassidy

16%45%

Dennis

14%41%

Rowland

12%36%

Wehrlein

8%26%

Mortara

7%22%

Günther

6%19%

Evans

6%19%

Vergne

6%16%

Müller

4%14%

Eriksson

4%12%

Vries

3%10%

Buemi

3%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	16%	45%	P1–P9	High	P1
2	J. Dennis Andretti	14%	41%	P1–P9	High	P5
3	O. Rowland Nissan	12%	36%	P1–P10	High	P3
4	P. Wehrlein Porsche	8%	26%	P2–P12	High	P6
5	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	7%	22%	P2–P14	Medium	P2
6	M. Günther DS Penske	6%	19%	P2–P14	Medium	P12
7	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	6%	19%	P2–P14	Medium	P11
8	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	6%	16%	P2–P15	Low	P8
9	N. Müller Porsche	4%	14%	P3–P15	Medium	P9
10	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	4%	12%	P3–P16	Low	P14
11	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	3%	10%	P3–P17	Low	—
12	S. Buemi Envision Racing	3%	8%	P4–P17	Low	P17
13	N. Nato Nissan	2%	6%	P5–P18	Low	P10
14	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	2%	6%	P5–P18	Low	—
15	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	2%	5%	P6–P18	Medium	P7
16	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	1%	4%	P6–P19	Low	—
17	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	1%	4%	P8–P20	Medium	P13
18	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	2%	P9–P20	High	P4
19	F. Drugovich Andretti	1%	3%	P9–P20	High	P15
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	1%	2%	P11–P20	High	P16

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

N. Cassidy

16.1% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Permanent

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Circuit

Mexico City

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A permanent race circuit — wider lines and more overtaking room than the street venues. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Cassidy

16%45%

Dennis

14%41%

Rowland

12%36%

Wehrlein

8%26%

Mortara

7%22%

Günther

6%19%

Evans

6%19%

Vergne

6%16%

Müller

4%14%

Eriksson

4%12%

Vries

3%10%

Buemi

3%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 4 exact, 8 of 17 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
CAS
DEN
ROW
WEH
MOR
GUE
EVA
JEV
MUE
ERI
DEV
BUE
NAT
TIC
MAR
DAC
DIG
BAR
DRU
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	CAS	DEN	ROW	WEH	MOR	GUE	EVA	JEV	MUE	ERI
CAS	—	54	57	67	70	73	74	75	80	82
DEN	46	—	54	64	69	71	72	73	77	80
ROW	43	46	—	60	66	68	68	72	74	78
WEH	33	36	40	—	55	57	59	62	66	70
MOR	30	31	34	45	—	52	53	57	60	64
GUE	27	29	32	43	48	—	51	55	58	63
EVA	26	28	32	41	47	49	—	52	58	60
JEV	25	27	28	38	43	45	48	—	54	59
MUE	21	23	26	34	40	42	42	47	—	55
ERI	18	20	22	30	36	37	40	41	45	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
CAS
DEN
ROW
WEH
MOR
GUE
EVA
JEV
MUE
ERI
DEV
BUE
NAT
TIC
MAR
DAC
DIG
BAR
DRU
MAL

beats ↓ / →	CAS	DEN	ROW	WEH	MOR	GUE	EVA	JEV	MUE	ERI
CAS	—	54	57	67	70	73	74	75	80	82
DEN	46	—	54	64	69	71	72	73	77	80
ROW	43	46	—	60	66	68	68	72	74	78
WEH	33	36	40	—	55	57	59	62	66	70
MOR	30	31	34	45	—	52	53	57	60	64
GUE	27	29	32	43	48	—	51	55	58	63
EVA	26	28	32	41	47	49	—	52	58	60
JEV	25	27	28	38	43	45	48	—	54	59
MUE	21	23	26	34	40	42	42	47	—	55
ERI	18	20	22	30	36	37	40	41	45	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
CAS
DEN
ROW
WEH
MOR
GUE
EVA
JEV
MUE
ERI
DEV
BUE
NAT
TIC
MAR
DAC
DIG
BAR
DRU
MAL

beats ↓ / →	CAS	DEN	ROW	WEH	MOR	GUE	EVA	JEV	MUE	ERI
CAS	—	54	57	67	70	73	74	75	80	82
DEN	46	—	54	64	69	71	72	73	77	80
ROW	43	46	—	60	66	68	68	72	74	78
WEH	33	36	40	—	55	57	59	62	66	70
MOR	30	31	34	45	—	52	53	57	60	64
GUE	27	29	32	43	48	—	51	55	58	63
EVA	26	28	32	41	47	49	—	52	58	60
JEV	25	27	28	38	43	45	48	—	54	59
MUE	21	23	26	34	40	42	42	47	—	55
ERI	18	20	22	30	36	37	40	41	45	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
CAS
DEN
ROW
WEH
MOR
GUE
EVA
JEV
MUE
ERI
DEV
BUE
NAT
TIC
MAR
DAC
DIG
BAR
DRU
MAL

beats ↓ / →	CAS	DEN	ROW	WEH	MOR	GUE	EVA	JEV	MUE	ERI
CAS	—	54	57	67	70	73	74	75	80	82
DEN	46	—	54	64	69	71	72	73	77	80
ROW	43	46	—	60	66	68	68	72	74	78
WEH	33	36	40	—	55	57	59	62	66	70
MOR	30	31	34	45	—	52	53	57	60	64
GUE	27	29	32	43	48	—	51	55	58	63
EVA	26	28	32	41	47	49	—	52	58	60
JEV	25	27	28	38	43	45	48	—	54	59
MUE	21	23	26	34	40	42	42	47	—	55
ERI	18	20	22	30	36	37	40	41	45	—