Round 16: London — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 16

London

Street CircuitDoubleheader · Race 1 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

London

United Kingdom

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race — the first of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

M. Evans is the clear favourite at 53% — nobody else clears 16%.

DOUBLEHEADER

The first race of the London doubleheader weekend — form shown here carries straight into the second race, on a walled street layout.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 4.4 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

J. Dennis

Andretti

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P7

Race Winner

P. Wehrlein

Porsche

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P13

Predicted P6

A. Félix da Costa

Jaguar TCS Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P13

Predicted P5

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Evans

53%92%

Dennis

16%55%

Rowland

6%26%

Mortara

5%22%

Costa

3%14%

Wehrlein

3%14%

Vergne

2%13%

Martí

2%11%

Vries

2%10%

Müller

2%10%

Cassidy

2%9%

Eriksson

1%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	53%	92%	P1–P3	High	P8
2	J. Dennis Andretti	16%	55%	P1–P7	High	P2
3	O. Rowland Nissan	6%	26%	P2–P10	High	P10
4	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	5%	22%	P2–P11	High	P7
5	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	3%	14%	P3–P13	Medium	P3
6	P. Wehrlein Porsche	3%	14%	P3–P13	Medium	P1
7	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	2%	13%	P3–P14	Medium	—
8	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	2%	11%	P3–P14	Medium	—
9	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	2%	10%	P4–P15	Medium	P13
10	N. Müller Porsche	2%	10%	P3–P15	Low	P11
11	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	2%	9%	P4–P15	Medium	P9
12	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	1%	7%	P4–P16	Low	P14
13	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	1%	4%	P6–P17	Medium	P6
14	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	3%	P7–P18	Medium	P5
15	F. Drugovich Andretti	1%	3%	P7–P18	Medium	P16
16	S. Buemi Envision Racing	1%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P4
17	M. Günther DS Penske	0%	2%	P8–P19	Medium	P12
18	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P11–P19	High	—
19	N. Nato Nissan	0%	1%	P14–P20	High	P15
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	0%	P16–P20	High	—

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

M. Evans

53.0% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

London

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Evans

53%92%

Dennis

16%55%

Rowland

6%26%

Mortara

5%22%

Costa

3%14%

Wehrlein

3%14%

Vergne

2%13%

Martí

2%11%

Vries

2%10%

Müller

2%10%

Cassidy

2%9%

Eriksson

1%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 7 of 16 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DEN
ROW
MOR
DAC
WEH
JEV
MAR
DEV
MUE
CAS
ERI
TIC
BAR
DRU
BUE
GUE
DIG
NAT
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DEN	ROW	MOR	DAC	WEH	JEV	MAR	DEV	MUE
EVA	—	78	91	92	95	95	95	96	96	96
DEN	22	—	72	76	82	83	84	86	88	87
ROW	9	28	—	55	64	66	69	71	73	73
MOR	8	24	45	—	60	61	63	68	70	70
DAC	5	18	36	40	—	52	54	57	61	61
WEH	5	17	34	39	48	—	53	56	59	59
JEV	5	16	31	37	46	47	—	53	56	57
MAR	4	14	29	33	43	44	47	—	53	54
DEV	4	12	27	30	39	41	44	47	—	50
MUE	4	13	27	30	39	41	43	46	50	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DEN
ROW
MOR
DAC
WEH
JEV
MAR
DEV
MUE
CAS
ERI
TIC
BAR
DRU
BUE
GUE
DIG
NAT
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DEN	ROW	MOR	DAC	WEH	JEV	MAR	DEV	MUE
EVA	—	78	91	92	95	95	95	96	96	96
DEN	22	—	72	76	82	83	84	86	88	87
ROW	9	28	—	55	64	66	69	71	73	73
MOR	8	24	45	—	60	61	63	68	70	70
DAC	5	18	36	40	—	52	54	57	61	61
WEH	5	17	34	39	48	—	53	56	59	59
JEV	5	16	31	37	46	47	—	53	56	57
MAR	4	14	29	33	43	44	47	—	53	54
DEV	4	12	27	30	39	41	44	47	—	50
MUE	4	13	27	30	39	41	43	46	50	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DEN
ROW
MOR
DAC
WEH
JEV
MAR
DEV
MUE
CAS
ERI
TIC
BAR
DRU
BUE
GUE
DIG
NAT
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DEN	ROW	MOR	DAC	WEH	JEV	MAR	DEV	MUE
EVA	—	78	91	92	95	95	95	96	96	96
DEN	22	—	72	76	82	83	84	86	88	87
ROW	9	28	—	55	64	66	69	71	73	73
MOR	8	24	45	—	60	61	63	68	70	70
DAC	5	18	36	40	—	52	54	57	61	61
WEH	5	17	34	39	48	—	53	56	59	59
JEV	5	16	31	37	46	47	—	53	56	57
MAR	4	14	29	33	43	44	47	—	53	54
DEV	4	12	27	30	39	41	44	47	—	50
MUE	4	13	27	30	39	41	43	46	50	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DEN
ROW
MOR
DAC
WEH
JEV
MAR
DEV
MUE
CAS
ERI
TIC
BAR
DRU
BUE
GUE
DIG
NAT
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DEN	ROW	MOR	DAC	WEH	JEV	MAR	DEV	MUE
EVA	—	78	91	92	95	95	95	96	96	96
DEN	22	—	72	76	82	83	84	86	88	87
ROW	9	28	—	55	64	66	69	71	73	73
MOR	8	24	45	—	60	61	63	68	70	70
DAC	5	18	36	40	—	52	54	57	61	61
WEH	5	17	34	39	48	—	53	56	59	59
JEV	5	16	31	37	46	47	—	53	56	57
MAR	4	14	29	33	43	44	47	—	53	54
DEV	4	12	27	30	39	41	44	47	—	50
MUE	4	13	27	30	39	41	43	46	50	—