Round 15: Tokyo II — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 15

Tokyo II

Street CircuitDoubleheader · Race 2 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

Tokyo II

Japan

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race — the second of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

M. Evans is the clear favourite at 51% — nobody else clears 11%.

DOUBLEHEADER

The second race of the Tokyo doubleheader weekend — drivers arrive with a race's worth of reads on these exact corners, on a walled street layout.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.9 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

N. Cassidy

Citroën Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P17

Predicted P14

Race Winner

N. de Vries

Mahindra Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P18

Predicted P15

J. Dennis

Andretti

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P8

Predicted P2

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Evans

51%90%

Dennis

11%42%

Costa

8%30%

Wehrlein

7%26%

Mortara

4%20%

Rowland

4%19%

Martí

3%12%

Vergne

2%9%

Drugovich

2%9%

Müller

2%8%

Eriksson

2%7%

Ticktum

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	51%	90%	P1–P4	High	—
2	J. Dennis Andretti	11%	42%	P1–P8	High	P3
3	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	8%	30%	P2–P10	High	P14
4	P. Wehrlein Porsche	7%	26%	P2–P11	High	P13
5	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	4%	20%	P2–P12	Medium	—
6	O. Rowland Nissan	4%	19%	P3–P12	High	P4
7	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	3%	12%	P3–P14	Medium	—
8	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	2%	9%	P4–P15	Medium	P5
9	F. Drugovich Andretti	2%	9%	P4–P15	Medium	P16
10	N. Müller Porsche	2%	8%	P4–P15	Medium	P7
11	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	2%	7%	P4–P16	Low	—
12	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	2%	7%	P4–P16	Low	P12
13	S. Buemi Envision Racing	1%	5%	P5–P17	Low	P15
14	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	1%	5%	P6–P17	Medium	P2
15	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	1%	4%	P6–P18	Low	P1
16	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	3%	P7–P18	Medium	P8
17	M. Günther DS Penske	0%	2%	P9–P18	High	P9
18	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	2%	P10–P19	High	P11
19	N. Nato Nissan	0%	1%	P17–P20	High	P6
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	0%	P17–P20	High	P10

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

M. Evans

50.5% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Tokyo II

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Evans

51%90%

Dennis

11%42%

Costa

8%30%

Wehrlein

7%26%

Mortara

4%20%

Rowland

4%19%

Martí

3%12%

Vergne

2%9%

Drugovich

2%9%

Müller

2%8%

Eriksson

2%7%

Ticktum

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 6 of 16 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DEN
DAC
WEH
MOR
ROW
MAR
JEV
DRU
MUE
ERI
TIC
BUE
CAS
DEV
BAR
GUE
DIG
NAT
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DEN	DAC	WEH	MOR	ROW	MAR	JEV	DRU	MUE
EVA	—	83	87	89	92	92	94	96	96	97
DEN	17	—	60	63	70	72	79	84	85	85
DAC	13	40	—	54	62	64	72	78	78	80
WEH	11	37	46	—	57	59	70	75	76	77
MOR	8	30	38	43	—	53	62	69	70	70
ROW	8	28	36	41	47	—	61	66	69	70
MAR	6	21	28	30	38	39	—	57	58	59
JEV	4	16	22	25	31	34	43	—	52	53
DRU	4	15	22	24	30	31	42	48	—	51
MUE	3	15	20	23	30	30	41	47	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DEN
DAC
WEH
MOR
ROW
MAR
JEV
DRU
MUE
ERI
TIC
BUE
CAS
DEV
BAR
GUE
DIG
NAT
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DEN	DAC	WEH	MOR	ROW	MAR	JEV	DRU	MUE
EVA	—	83	87	89	92	92	94	96	96	97
DEN	17	—	60	63	70	72	79	84	85	85
DAC	13	40	—	54	62	64	72	78	78	80
WEH	11	37	46	—	57	59	70	75	76	77
MOR	8	30	38	43	—	53	62	69	70	70
ROW	8	28	36	41	47	—	61	66	69	70
MAR	6	21	28	30	38	39	—	57	58	59
JEV	4	16	22	25	31	34	43	—	52	53
DRU	4	15	22	24	30	31	42	48	—	51
MUE	3	15	20	23	30	30	41	47	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DEN
DAC
WEH
MOR
ROW
MAR
JEV
DRU
MUE
ERI
TIC
BUE
CAS
DEV
BAR
GUE
DIG
NAT
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DEN	DAC	WEH	MOR	ROW	MAR	JEV	DRU	MUE
EVA	—	83	87	89	92	92	94	96	96	97
DEN	17	—	60	63	70	72	79	84	85	85
DAC	13	40	—	54	62	64	72	78	78	80
WEH	11	37	46	—	57	59	70	75	76	77
MOR	8	30	38	43	—	53	62	69	70	70
ROW	8	28	36	41	47	—	61	66	69	70
MAR	6	21	28	30	38	39	—	57	58	59
JEV	4	16	22	25	31	34	43	—	52	53
DRU	4	15	22	24	30	31	42	48	—	51
MUE	3	15	20	23	30	30	41	47	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DEN
DAC
WEH
MOR
ROW
MAR
JEV
DRU
MUE
ERI
TIC
BUE
CAS
DEV
BAR
GUE
DIG
NAT
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DEN	DAC	WEH	MOR	ROW	MAR	JEV	DRU	MUE
EVA	—	83	87	89	92	92	94	96	96	97
DEN	17	—	60	63	70	72	79	84	85	85
DAC	13	40	—	54	62	64	72	78	78	80
WEH	11	37	46	—	57	59	70	75	76	77
MOR	8	30	38	43	—	53	62	69	70	70
ROW	8	28	36	41	47	—	61	66	69	70
MAR	6	21	28	30	38	39	—	57	58	59
JEV	4	16	22	25	31	34	43	—	52	53
DRU	4	15	22	24	30	31	42	48	—	51
MUE	3	15	20	23	30	30	41	47	49	—