Round 14: Tokyo — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 14

Tokyo

Street CircuitDoubleheader · Race 1 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

Tokyo

Japan

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race — the first of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

M. Evans is the clear favourite at 48% — nobody else clears 8%.

DOUBLEHEADER

The first race of the Tokyo doubleheader weekend — form shown here carries straight into the second race, on a walled street layout.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.4 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

J. Dennis

Andretti

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P11

Predicted P4

Race Winner

D. Ticktum

CUPRA KIRO

Win probability

0.0%

Range P9–P19

Predicted P16

N. Cassidy

Citroën Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P10–P19

Predicted P18

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Evans

48%88%

Costa

8%32%

Wehrlein

7%28%

Dennis

6%27%

Müller

5%22%

Drugovich

5%18%

Rowland

4%16%

Eriksson

3%14%

Mortara

3%13%

Martí

2%9%

Vries

2%7%

Buemi

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	48%	88%	P1–P4	High	P4
2	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	8%	32%	P2–P9	High	P9
3	P. Wehrlein Porsche	7%	28%	P2–P10	High	—
4	J. Dennis Andretti	6%	27%	P2–P11	High	P2
5	N. Müller Porsche	5%	22%	P2–P12	Medium	P18
6	F. Drugovich Andretti	5%	18%	P2–P12	Medium	P13
7	O. Rowland Nissan	4%	16%	P3–P13	Medium	P7
8	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	3%	14%	P3–P13	Medium	P12
9	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	3%	13%	P3–P14	Low	P5
10	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	2%	9%	P4–P15	Low	P8
11	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	2%	7%	P4–P16	Low	P17
12	S. Buemi Envision Racing	2%	7%	P4–P16	Low	P14
13	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	2%	7%	P5–P16	Low	P6
14	M. Günther DS Penske	1%	4%	P7–P18	Low	P15
15	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	3%	P8–P18	Medium	P10
16	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	0%	2%	P9–P19	Medium	P1
17	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	2%	P10–P19	High	P11
18	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	0%	2%	P10–P19	High	P3
19	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P14–P20	High	P19
20	N. Nato Nissan	0%	0%	P16–P20	High	P16

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

M. Evans

48.4% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Tokyo

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Evans

48%88%

Costa

8%32%

Wehrlein

7%28%

Dennis

6%27%

Müller

5%22%

Drugovich

5%18%

Rowland

4%16%

Eriksson

3%14%

Mortara

3%13%

Martí

2%9%

Vries

2%7%

Buemi

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 7 of 19 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DAC
WEH
DEN
MUE
DRU
ROW
ERI
MOR
MAR
DEV
BUE
JEV
GUE
BAR
TIC
DIG
CAS
MAL
NAT

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DAC	WEH	DEN	MUE	DRU	ROW	ERI	MOR	MAR
EVA	—	85	87	88	90	92	93	94	94	96
DAC	15	—	54	56	61	66	68	72	74	82
WEH	13	46	—	52	58	62	65	68	70	77
DEN	12	44	48	—	56	59	64	67	69	77
MUE	10	39	42	44	—	54	58	61	64	73
DRU	8	34	38	41	46	—	53	57	59	70
ROW	7	32	35	36	42	47	—	54	56	66
ERI	6	28	32	33	39	43	46	—	53	64
MOR	6	26	30	31	36	41	44	47	—	61
MAR	4	19	23	23	27	30	34	36	39	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DAC
WEH
DEN
MUE
DRU
ROW
ERI
MOR
MAR
DEV
BUE
JEV
GUE
BAR
TIC
DIG
CAS
MAL
NAT

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DAC	WEH	DEN	MUE	DRU	ROW	ERI	MOR	MAR
EVA	—	85	87	88	90	92	93	94	94	96
DAC	15	—	54	56	61	66	68	72	74	82
WEH	13	46	—	52	58	62	65	68	70	77
DEN	12	44	48	—	56	59	64	67	69	77
MUE	10	39	42	44	—	54	58	61	64	73
DRU	8	34	38	41	46	—	53	57	59	70
ROW	7	32	35	36	42	47	—	54	56	66
ERI	6	28	32	33	39	43	46	—	53	64
MOR	6	26	30	31	36	41	44	47	—	61
MAR	4	19	23	23	27	30	34	36	39	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DAC
WEH
DEN
MUE
DRU
ROW
ERI
MOR
MAR
DEV
BUE
JEV
GUE
BAR
TIC
DIG
CAS
MAL
NAT

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DAC	WEH	DEN	MUE	DRU	ROW	ERI	MOR	MAR
EVA	—	85	87	88	90	92	93	94	94	96
DAC	15	—	54	56	61	66	68	72	74	82
WEH	13	46	—	52	58	62	65	68	70	77
DEN	12	44	48	—	56	59	64	67	69	77
MUE	10	39	42	44	—	54	58	61	64	73
DRU	8	34	38	41	46	—	53	57	59	70
ROW	7	32	35	36	42	47	—	54	56	66
ERI	6	28	32	33	39	43	46	—	53	64
MOR	6	26	30	31	36	41	44	47	—	61
MAR	4	19	23	23	27	30	34	36	39	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DAC
WEH
DEN
MUE
DRU
ROW
ERI
MOR
MAR
DEV
BUE
JEV
GUE
BAR
TIC
DIG
CAS
MAL
NAT

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DAC	WEH	DEN	MUE	DRU	ROW	ERI	MOR	MAR
EVA	—	85	87	88	90	92	93	94	94	96
DAC	15	—	54	56	61	66	68	72	74	82
WEH	13	46	—	52	58	62	65	68	70	77
DEN	12	44	48	—	56	59	64	67	69	77
MUE	10	39	42	44	—	54	58	61	64	73
DRU	8	34	38	41	46	—	53	57	59	70
ROW	7	32	35	36	42	47	—	54	56	66
ERI	6	28	32	33	39	43	46	—	53	64
MOR	6	26	30	31	36	41	44	47	—	61
MAR	4	19	23	23	27	30	34	36	39	—