Round 13: Shanghai II — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 13

Shanghai II

Permanent CircuitDoubleheader · Race 2 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

Shanghai II

China

Weekend Format

Permanent Circuit

One scored race — the second of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

M. Evans is the clear favourite at 38% — nobody else clears 17%.

DOUBLEHEADER

The second race of the Shanghai doubleheader weekend — drivers arrive with a race's worth of reads on these exact corners, on a permanent circuit.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.6 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

J-É. Vergne

Citroën Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P7–P18

Predicted P14

Race Winner

L. Di Grassi

Lola Yamaha ABT

Win probability

0.0%

Range P14–P20

Predicted P20

J. Eriksson

Envision Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P16

Predicted P11

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Evans

38%79%

Costa

17%51%

Dennis

10%36%

Mortara

6%22%

Vries

5%18%

Wehrlein

4%16%

Müller

4%15%

Rowland

4%15%

Drugovich

4%14%

Martí

3%11%

Eriksson

2%6%

Buemi

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	38%	79%	P1–P5	High	—
2	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	17%	51%	P1–P7	High	P14
3	J. Dennis Andretti	10%	36%	P1–P9	High	P13
4	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	6%	22%	P2–P11	High	P16
5	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	5%	18%	P2–P12	Medium	P18
6	P. Wehrlein Porsche	4%	16%	P3–P12	High	P4
7	N. Müller Porsche	4%	15%	P3–P12	High	P7
8	O. Rowland Nissan	4%	15%	P3–P13	Medium	P8
9	F. Drugovich Andretti	4%	14%	P3–P13	Medium	P6
10	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	3%	11%	P3–P14	Low	P12
11	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	2%	6%	P5–P16	Low	P3
12	S. Buemi Envision Racing	1%	3%	P6–P17	Low	P5
13	M. Günther DS Penske	1%	3%	P7–P18	Low	P10
14	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	1%	3%	P7–P18	Low	P2
15	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	1%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P11
16	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	1%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P15
17	T. Barnard DS Penske	0%	2%	P9–P19	Medium	P9
18	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P13–P20	High	—
19	N. Nato Nissan	0%	1%	P14–P20	High	P17
20	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P14–P20	High	P1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

M. Evans

37.7% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Permanent

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Circuit

Shanghai II

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A permanent race circuit — wider lines and more overtaking room than the street venues. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Evans

38%79%

Costa

17%51%

Dennis

10%36%

Mortara

6%22%

Vries

5%18%

Wehrlein

4%16%

Müller

4%15%

Rowland

4%15%

Drugovich

4%14%

Martí

3%11%

Eriksson

2%6%

Buemi

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 8 of 18 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DAC
DEN
MOR
DEV
WEH
MUE
ROW
DRU
MAR
ERI
BUE
GUE
JEV
TIC
CAS
BAR
MAL
NAT
DIG

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DAC	DEN	MOR	DEV	WEH	MUE	ROW	DRU	MAR
EVA	—	69	78	86	88	89	90	90	91	93
DAC	31	—	61	72	76	79	79	81	81	85
DEN	22	39	—	64	68	71	71	73	74	79
MOR	14	28	36	—	55	59	58	61	61	68
DEV	12	24	32	46	—	53	55	56	57	63
WEH	11	21	29	41	47	—	51	54	53	60
MUE	10	21	29	42	45	49	—	52	52	60
ROW	10	19	27	39	44	46	48	—	49	57
DRU	9	19	26	39	43	47	48	51	—	56
MAR	7	15	21	32	37	40	40	43	44	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DAC
DEN
MOR
DEV
WEH
MUE
ROW
DRU
MAR
ERI
BUE
GUE
JEV
TIC
CAS
BAR
MAL
NAT
DIG

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DAC	DEN	MOR	DEV	WEH	MUE	ROW	DRU	MAR
EVA	—	69	78	86	88	89	90	90	91	93
DAC	31	—	61	72	76	79	79	81	81	85
DEN	22	39	—	64	68	71	71	73	74	79
MOR	14	28	36	—	55	59	58	61	61	68
DEV	12	24	32	46	—	53	55	56	57	63
WEH	11	21	29	41	47	—	51	54	53	60
MUE	10	21	29	42	45	49	—	52	52	60
ROW	10	19	27	39	44	46	48	—	49	57
DRU	9	19	26	39	43	47	48	51	—	56
MAR	7	15	21	32	37	40	40	43	44	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DAC
DEN
MOR
DEV
WEH
MUE
ROW
DRU
MAR
ERI
BUE
GUE
JEV
TIC
CAS
BAR
MAL
NAT
DIG

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DAC	DEN	MOR	DEV	WEH	MUE	ROW	DRU	MAR
EVA	—	69	78	86	88	89	90	90	91	93
DAC	31	—	61	72	76	79	79	81	81	85
DEN	22	39	—	64	68	71	71	73	74	79
MOR	14	28	36	—	55	59	58	61	61	68
DEV	12	24	32	46	—	53	55	56	57	63
WEH	11	21	29	41	47	—	51	54	53	60
MUE	10	21	29	42	45	49	—	52	52	60
ROW	10	19	27	39	44	46	48	—	49	57
DRU	9	19	26	39	43	47	48	51	—	56
MAR	7	15	21	32	37	40	40	43	44	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
DAC
DEN
MOR
DEV
WEH
MUE
ROW
DRU
MAR
ERI
BUE
GUE
JEV
TIC
CAS
BAR
MAL
NAT
DIG

beats ↓ / →	EVA	DAC	DEN	MOR	DEV	WEH	MUE	ROW	DRU	MAR
EVA	—	69	78	86	88	89	90	90	91	93
DAC	31	—	61	72	76	79	79	81	81	85
DEN	22	39	—	64	68	71	71	73	74	79
MOR	14	28	36	—	55	59	58	61	61	68
DEV	12	24	32	46	—	53	55	56	57	63
WEH	11	21	29	41	47	—	51	54	53	60
MUE	10	21	29	42	45	49	—	52	52	60
ROW	10	19	27	39	44	46	48	—	49	57
DRU	9	19	26	39	43	47	48	51	—	56
MAR	7	15	21	32	37	40	40	43	44	—