Round 12: Shanghai — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 12

Shanghai

Permanent CircuitDoubleheader · Race 1 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

Shanghai

China

Weekend Format

Permanent Circuit

One scored race — the first of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

M. Evans is the clear favourite at 44% — nobody else clears 12%.

DOUBLEHEADER

The first race of the Shanghai doubleheader weekend — form shown here carries straight into the second race, on a permanent circuit.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.9 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

A. Félix da Costa

Jaguar TCS Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P9

Predicted P4

Race Winner

P. Wehrlein

Porsche

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P16

Predicted P10

J. Dennis

Andretti

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P11

Predicted P6

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Evans

44%86%

Mortara

12%40%

Martí

9%32%

Costa

9%33%

Rowland

6%22%

Dennis

5%22%

Müller

4%16%

Vries

3%13%

Drugovich

2%8%

Wehrlein

1%6%

Buemi

1%5%

Cassidy

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	44%	86%	P1–P4	High	P8
2	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	12%	40%	P1–P8	High	P15
3	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	9%	32%	P2–P9	High	P14
4	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	9%	33%	P2–P9	High	P2
5	O. Rowland Nissan	6%	22%	P2–P11	High	P13
6	J. Dennis Andretti	5%	22%	P2–P11	High	P3
7	N. Müller Porsche	4%	16%	P3–P12	High	P10
8	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	3%	13%	P3–P13	Medium	P5
9	F. Drugovich Andretti	2%	8%	P4–P14	Medium	P4
10	P. Wehrlein Porsche	1%	6%	P5–P16	Low	P1
11	S. Buemi Envision Racing	1%	5%	P5–P16	Low	P17
12	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	1%	3%	P6–P17	Low	P19
13	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	1%	3%	P7–P17	Medium	P7
14	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	3%	P7–P18	Low	P16
15	M. Günther DS Penske	1%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P9
16	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	0%	2%	P9–P19	Medium	P12
17	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	0%	2%	P10–P19	High	P6
18	N. Nato Nissan	0%	1%	P11–P20	High	P20
19	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P12–P20	High	P18
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	0%	P14–P20	High	P11

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

M. Evans

44.0% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Permanent

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Circuit

Shanghai

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A permanent race circuit — wider lines and more overtaking room than the street venues. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Evans

44%86%

Mortara

12%40%

Martí

9%32%

Costa

9%33%

Rowland

6%22%

Dennis

5%22%

Müller

4%16%

Vries

3%13%

Drugovich

2%8%

Wehrlein

1%6%

Buemi

1%5%

Cassidy

1%3%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 7 of 20 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
MAR
DAC
ROW
DEN
MUE
DEV
DRU
WEH
BUE
CAS
ERI
BAR
GUE
TIC
JEV
NAT
DIG
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	MAR	DAC	ROW	DEN	MUE	DEV	DRU	WEH
EVA	—	79	84	84	89	89	92	94	96	97
MOR	21	—	56	55	66	66	73	77	83	88
MAR	16	44	—	49	60	60	69	73	80	86
DAC	16	45	51	—	59	60	68	73	80	85
ROW	11	34	40	41	—	50	58	64	73	79
DEN	11	34	40	40	50	—	59	64	73	80
MUE	8	27	31	32	42	41	—	56	65	74
DEV	6	23	27	27	37	36	44	—	59	68
DRU	4	17	20	20	27	27	35	41	—	59
WEH	3	12	14	15	21	20	26	32	41	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
MAR
DAC
ROW
DEN
MUE
DEV
DRU
WEH
BUE
CAS
ERI
BAR
GUE
TIC
JEV
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	MAR	DAC	ROW	DEN	MUE	DEV	DRU	WEH
EVA	—	79	84	84	89	89	92	94	96	97
MOR	21	—	56	55	66	66	73	77	83	88
MAR	16	44	—	49	60	60	69	73	80	86
DAC	16	45	51	—	59	60	68	73	80	85
ROW	11	34	40	41	—	50	58	64	73	79
DEN	11	34	40	40	50	—	59	64	73	80
MUE	8	27	31	32	42	41	—	56	65	74
DEV	6	23	27	27	37	36	44	—	59	68
DRU	4	17	20	20	27	27	35	41	—	59
WEH	3	12	14	15	21	20	26	32	41	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
MAR
DAC
ROW
DEN
MUE
DEV
DRU
WEH
BUE
CAS
ERI
BAR
GUE
TIC
JEV
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	MAR	DAC	ROW	DEN	MUE	DEV	DRU	WEH
EVA	—	79	84	84	89	89	92	94	96	97
MOR	21	—	56	55	66	66	73	77	83	88
MAR	16	44	—	49	60	60	69	73	80	86
DAC	16	45	51	—	59	60	68	73	80	85
ROW	11	34	40	41	—	50	58	64	73	79
DEN	11	34	40	40	50	—	59	64	73	80
MUE	8	27	31	32	42	41	—	56	65	74
DEV	6	23	27	27	37	36	44	—	59	68
DRU	4	17	20	20	27	27	35	41	—	59
WEH	3	12	14	15	21	20	26	32	41	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
MAR
DAC
ROW
DEN
MUE
DEV
DRU
WEH
BUE
CAS
ERI
BAR
GUE
TIC
JEV
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	MAR	DAC	ROW	DEN	MUE	DEV	DRU	WEH
EVA	—	79	84	84	89	89	92	94	96	97
MOR	21	—	56	55	66	66	73	77	83	88
MAR	16	44	—	49	60	60	69	73	80	86
DAC	16	45	51	—	59	60	68	73	80	85
ROW	11	34	40	41	—	50	58	64	73	79
DEN	11	34	40	40	50	—	59	64	73	80
MUE	8	27	31	32	42	41	—	56	65	74
DEV	6	23	27	27	37	36	44	—	59	68
DRU	4	17	20	20	27	27	35	41	—	59
WEH	3	12	14	15	21	20	26	32	41	—