Round 11: Sanya — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 11

Sanya

Street CircuitResult + Forecast

Venue

Sanya

China

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

M. Evans is the clear favourite at 50% — nobody else clears 11%.

STREET

Sanya is a walled street E-Prix — grid position and clean racecraft count for more here, and the forecast ranges widen accordingly.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.3 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

J. M. Martí

CUPRA KIRO

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P11

Predicted P5

Race Winner

J. Dennis

Andretti

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P13

Predicted P7

N. de Vries

Mahindra Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P15

Predicted P11

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Evans

50%89%

Mortara

11%41%

Costa

7%28%

Rowland

6%25%

Martí

6%24%

Müller

4%18%

Dennis

3%13%

Wehrlein

3%12%

Buemi

2%10%

Drugovich

2%9%

Vries

2%8%

Eriksson

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	50%	89%	P1–P4	High	—
2	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	11%	41%	P1–P8	High	—
3	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	7%	28%	P2–P10	High	P4
4	O. Rowland Nissan	6%	25%	P2–P11	High	—
5	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	6%	24%	P2–P11	High	P2
6	N. Müller Porsche	4%	18%	P2–P12	Medium	P7
7	J. Dennis Andretti	3%	13%	P3–P13	Medium	P1
8	P. Wehrlein Porsche	3%	12%	P3–P14	Low	P14
9	S. Buemi Envision Racing	2%	10%	P4–P14	Medium	P13
10	F. Drugovich Andretti	2%	9%	P4–P15	Low	P5
11	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	2%	8%	P4–P15	Low	P3
12	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	2%	7%	P4–P16	Low	P12
13	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	1%	4%	P6–P17	Low	P15
14	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	1%	3%	P6–P17	Low	—
15	T. Barnard DS Penske	0%	2%	P8–P18	Medium	P9
16	M. Günther DS Penske	1%	2%	P10–P19	High	P6
17	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	0%	1%	P11–P19	High	P8
18	N. Nato Nissan	0%	1%	P11–P20	High	—
19	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P13–P20	High	P10
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	0%	P15–P20	High	P11

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

M. Evans

49.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Sanya

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Evans

50%89%

Mortara

11%41%

Costa

7%28%

Rowland

6%25%

Martí

6%24%

Müller

4%18%

Dennis

3%13%

Wehrlein

3%12%

Buemi

2%10%

Drugovich

2%9%

Vries

2%8%

Eriksson

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 5 of 15 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
DAC
ROW
MAR
MUE
DEN
WEH
BUE
DRU
DEV
ERI
TIC
CAS
BAR
GUE
JEV
NAT
DIG
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	DAC	ROW	MAR	MUE	DEN	WEH	BUE	DRU
EVA	—	82	87	90	89	93	94	94	96	96
MOR	18	—	62	65	66	71	78	79	83	84
DAC	13	38	—	53	55	62	69	72	76	78
ROW	10	35	47	—	52	58	65	68	72	76
MAR	11	34	45	48	—	57	64	66	70	73
MUE	7	29	38	42	43	—	58	61	66	69
DEN	6	22	31	35	36	42	—	54	58	62
WEH	6	21	28	32	34	39	46	—	54	58
BUE	4	17	24	28	30	34	42	46	—	52
DRU	4	16	22	24	27	31	38	42	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
DAC
ROW
MAR
MUE
DEN
WEH
BUE
DRU
DEV
ERI
TIC
CAS
BAR
GUE
JEV
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	DAC	ROW	MAR	MUE	DEN	WEH	BUE	DRU
EVA	—	82	87	90	89	93	94	94	96	96
MOR	18	—	62	65	66	71	78	79	83	84
DAC	13	38	—	53	55	62	69	72	76	78
ROW	10	35	47	—	52	58	65	68	72	76
MAR	11	34	45	48	—	57	64	66	70	73
MUE	7	29	38	42	43	—	58	61	66	69
DEN	6	22	31	35	36	42	—	54	58	62
WEH	6	21	28	32	34	39	46	—	54	58
BUE	4	17	24	28	30	34	42	46	—	52
DRU	4	16	22	24	27	31	38	42	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
DAC
ROW
MAR
MUE
DEN
WEH
BUE
DRU
DEV
ERI
TIC
CAS
BAR
GUE
JEV
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	DAC	ROW	MAR	MUE	DEN	WEH	BUE	DRU
EVA	—	82	87	90	89	93	94	94	96	96
MOR	18	—	62	65	66	71	78	79	83	84
DAC	13	38	—	53	55	62	69	72	76	78
ROW	10	35	47	—	52	58	65	68	72	76
MAR	11	34	45	48	—	57	64	66	70	73
MUE	7	29	38	42	43	—	58	61	66	69
DEN	6	22	31	35	36	42	—	54	58	62
WEH	6	21	28	32	34	39	46	—	54	58
BUE	4	17	24	28	30	34	42	46	—	52
DRU	4	16	22	24	27	31	38	42	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
DAC
ROW
MAR
MUE
DEN
WEH
BUE
DRU
DEV
ERI
TIC
CAS
BAR
GUE
JEV
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	DAC	ROW	MAR	MUE	DEN	WEH	BUE	DRU
EVA	—	82	87	90	89	93	94	94	96	96
MOR	18	—	62	65	66	71	78	79	83	84
DAC	13	38	—	53	55	62	69	72	76	78
ROW	10	35	47	—	52	58	65	68	72	76
MAR	11	34	45	48	—	57	64	66	70	73
MUE	7	29	38	42	43	—	58	61	66	69
DEN	6	22	31	35	36	42	—	54	58	62
WEH	6	21	28	32	34	39	46	—	54	58
BUE	4	17	24	28	30	34	42	46	—	52
DRU	4	16	22	24	27	31	38	42	48	—