Round 10: Monaco II — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 10

Monaco II

Street CircuitDoubleheader · Race 2 of 2Result + Forecast

Venue

Monaco II

Monaco

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race — the second of two at this venue.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

M. Evans is the clear favourite at 50% — nobody else clears 8%.

DOUBLEHEADER

The second race of the Monaco doubleheader weekend — drivers arrive with a race's worth of reads on these exact corners, on a walled street layout.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.6 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

F. Drugovich

Andretti

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P17

Predicted P15

Race Winner

O. Rowland

Nissan

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P14

Predicted P9

A. Félix da Costa

Jaguar TCS Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P13

Predicted P6

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Evans

50%89%

Mortara

8%34%

Martí

6%26%

Buemi

6%25%

Dennis

5%22%

Costa

3%16%

Müller

4%14%

Wehrlein

3%14%

Rowland

2%12%

Cassidy

3%12%

Vries

2%8%

Ticktum

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	50%	89%	P1–P4	High	P4
2	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	8%	34%	P2–P10	High	P5
3	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	6%	26%	P2–P11	High	—
4	S. Buemi Envision Racing	6%	25%	P2–P11	High	P17
5	J. Dennis Andretti	5%	22%	P2–P12	Medium	P12
6	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	3%	16%	P3–P13	Medium	P3
7	N. Müller Porsche	4%	14%	P3–P14	Medium	P6
8	P. Wehrlein Porsche	3%	14%	P3–P14	Medium	P11
9	O. Rowland Nissan	2%	12%	P3–P14	Medium	P1
10	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	3%	12%	P3–P15	Low	P18
11	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	2%	8%	P4–P16	Low	P8
12	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	2%	8%	P4–P16	Low	P14
13	T. Barnard DS Penske	1%	6%	P5–P17	Low	P15
14	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	1%	5%	P5–P17	Low	P7
15	F. Drugovich Andretti	1%	5%	P6–P17	Medium	P2
16	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	1%	2%	P9–P19	Medium	P16
17	M. Günther DS Penske	0%	2%	P9–P19	Medium	P13
18	N. Nato Nissan	0%	1%	P12–P19	High	—
19	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	1%	P15–P20	High	P9
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	0%	0%	P18–P20	High	P10

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

M. Evans

49.9% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

Monaco II

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Evans

50%89%

Mortara

8%34%

Martí

6%26%

Buemi

6%25%

Dennis

5%22%

Costa

3%16%

Müller

4%14%

Wehrlein

3%14%

Rowland

2%12%

Cassidy

3%12%

Vries

2%8%

Ticktum

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 9 of 18 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
MAR
BUE
DEN
DAC
MUE
WEH
ROW
CAS
DEV
TIC
BAR
ERI
DRU
JEV
GUE
NAT
DIG
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	MAR	BUE	DEN	DAC	MUE	WEH	ROW	CAS
EVA	—	85	89	89	91	93	94	94	95	95
MOR	15	—	57	58	63	70	71	73	75	77
MAR	11	43	—	51	56	62	65	66	69	70
BUE	11	42	49	—	55	62	64	67	68	70
DEN	9	37	44	45	—	56	60	62	64	66
DAC	7	30	38	38	44	—	54	55	57	59
MUE	6	29	35	36	40	46	—	52	54	56
WEH	6	27	34	33	38	45	48	—	53	54
ROW	5	25	31	32	36	43	46	47	—	52
CAS	5	24	30	30	35	41	44	46	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
MAR
BUE
DEN
DAC
MUE
WEH
ROW
CAS
DEV
TIC
BAR
ERI
DRU
JEV
GUE
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	MAR	BUE	DEN	DAC	MUE	WEH	ROW	CAS
EVA	—	85	89	89	91	93	94	94	95	95
MOR	15	—	57	58	63	70	71	73	75	77
MAR	11	43	—	51	56	62	65	66	69	70
BUE	11	42	49	—	55	62	64	67	68	70
DEN	9	37	44	45	—	56	60	62	64	66
DAC	7	30	38	38	44	—	54	55	57	59
MUE	6	29	35	36	40	46	—	52	54	56
WEH	6	27	34	33	38	45	48	—	53	54
ROW	5	25	31	32	36	43	46	47	—	52
CAS	5	24	30	30	35	41	44	46	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
MAR
BUE
DEN
DAC
MUE
WEH
ROW
CAS
DEV
TIC
BAR
ERI
DRU
JEV
GUE
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	MAR	BUE	DEN	DAC	MUE	WEH	ROW	CAS
EVA	—	85	89	89	91	93	94	94	95	95
MOR	15	—	57	58	63	70	71	73	75	77
MAR	11	43	—	51	56	62	65	66	69	70
BUE	11	42	49	—	55	62	64	67	68	70
DEN	9	37	44	45	—	56	60	62	64	66
DAC	7	30	38	38	44	—	54	55	57	59
MUE	6	29	35	36	40	46	—	52	54	56
WEH	6	27	34	33	38	45	48	—	53	54
ROW	5	25	31	32	36	43	46	47	—	52
CAS	5	24	30	30	35	41	44	46	48	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
EVA
MOR
MAR
BUE
DEN
DAC
MUE
WEH
ROW
CAS
DEV
TIC
BAR
ERI
DRU
JEV
GUE
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	EVA	MOR	MAR	BUE	DEN	DAC	MUE	WEH	ROW	CAS
EVA	—	85	89	89	91	93	94	94	95	95
MOR	15	—	57	58	63	70	71	73	75	77
MAR	11	43	—	51	56	62	65	66	69	70
BUE	11	42	49	—	55	62	64	67	68	70
DEN	9	37	44	45	—	56	60	62	64	66
DAC	7	30	38	38	44	—	54	55	57	59
MUE	6	29	35	36	40	46	—	52	54	56
WEH	6	27	34	33	38	45	48	—	53	54
ROW	5	25	31	32	36	43	46	47	—	52
CAS	5	24	30	30	35	41	44	46	48	—