Round 1: São Paulo — RaceIQ Formula E

Round 01

São Paulo

Street CircuitResult + Forecast

Venue

São Paulo

Brazil

Weekend Format

Street Circuit

One scored race this weekend.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Wide-open race: N. Cassidy leads the win market at just 13%, with N. de Vries right behind on 8%.

STREET

São Paulo is a walled street E-Prix — grid position and clean racecraft count for more here, and the forecast ranges widen accordingly.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.1 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

O. Rowland

Nissan

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P16

Predicted P7

Race Winner

J. Dennis

Andretti

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P17

Predicted P10

N. Cassidy

Citroën Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P11

Predicted P1

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Cassidy

13%36%

Vries

8%25%

Günther

8%25%

Mortara

6%18%

Evans

6%18%

Wehrlein

6%18%

Rowland

6%19%

Costa

6%18%

Barnard

6%17%

Dennis

5%16%

Buemi

5%16%

Vergne

5%14%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	Confidence	Actual
1	N. Cassidy Citroën Racing	13%	36%	P1–P11	High	P3
2	N. de Vries Mahindra Racing	8%	25%	P2–P14	High	P9
3	M. Günther DS Penske	8%	25%	P2–P14	High	P6
4	E. Mortara Mahindra Racing	6%	18%	P2–P16	High	—
5	M. Evans Jaguar TCS Racing	6%	18%	P2–P16	High	—
6	P. Wehrlein Porsche	6%	18%	P2–P16	High	P4
7	O. Rowland Nissan	6%	19%	P2–P16	High	P2
8	A. Félix da Costa Jaguar TCS Racing	6%	18%	P2–P16	High	P11
9	T. Barnard DS Penske	6%	17%	P2–P16	High	P13
10	J. Dennis Andretti	5%	16%	P3–P17	High	P1
11	S. Buemi Envision Racing	5%	16%	P2–P17	Low	P8
12	J-É. Vergne Citroën Racing	5%	14%	P3–P17	High	—
13	J. Eriksson Envision Racing	4%	12%	P3–P18	Low	P7
14	F. Drugovich Andretti	4%	12%	P3–P18	Low	P12
15	N. Müller Porsche	2%	8%	P4–P19	Low	P5
16	D. Ticktum CUPRA KIRO	3%	8%	P4–P19	Low	—
17	J. M. Martí CUPRA KIRO	2%	8%	P4–P19	Low	—
18	N. Nato Nissan	2%	7%	P5–P19	High	—
19	L. Di Grassi Lola Yamaha ABT	1%	4%	P7–P20	High	—
20	Z. Maloney Lola Yamaha ABT	1%	2%	P12–P20	High	P10

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

N. Cassidy

12.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Circuit Type

Street

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Circuit & Telemetry

Street Circuit

São Paulo

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

A temporary street layout — tight walls, low grip off-line and little room for error. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, sector times, energy traces) isn’t published for Formula E, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Cassidy

13%36%

Vries

8%25%

Günther

8%25%

Mortara

6%18%

Evans

6%18%

Wehrlein

6%18%

Rowland

6%19%

Costa

6%18%

Barnard

6%17%

Dennis

5%16%

Buemi

5%16%

Vergne

5%14%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 6 of 13 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
CAS
DEV
GUE
MOR
EVA
WEH
ROW
DAC
BAR
DEN
BUE
JEV
ERI
DRU
MUE
TIC
MAR
NAT
DIG
MAL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	CAS	DEV	GUE	MOR	EVA	WEH	ROW	DAC	BAR	DEN
CAS	—	60	61	68	68	69	69	69	69	71
DEV	40	—	51	59	58	59	60	59	60	62
GUE	39	49	—	58	58	59	58	59	59	62
MOR	32	41	42	—	51	51	51	51	51	53
EVA	32	42	42	49	—	51	51	51	50	53
WEH	31	41	41	49	49	—	50	51	51	52
ROW	31	40	42	49	49	50	—	50	50	52
DAC	31	41	41	49	49	49	50	—	51	53
BAR	31	40	41	49	50	49	50	49	—	51
DEN	29	38	38	47	47	48	48	47	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
CAS
DEV
GUE
MOR
EVA
WEH
ROW
DAC
BAR
DEN
BUE
JEV
ERI
DRU
MUE
TIC
MAR
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	CAS	DEV	GUE	MOR	EVA	WEH	ROW	DAC	BAR	DEN
CAS	—	60	61	68	68	69	69	69	69	71
DEV	40	—	51	59	58	59	60	59	60	62
GUE	39	49	—	58	58	59	58	59	59	62
MOR	32	41	42	—	51	51	51	51	51	53
EVA	32	42	42	49	—	51	51	51	50	53
WEH	31	41	41	49	49	—	50	51	51	52
ROW	31	40	42	49	49	50	—	50	50	52
DAC	31	41	41	49	49	49	50	—	51	53
BAR	31	40	41	49	50	49	50	49	—	51
DEN	29	38	38	47	47	48	48	47	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
CAS
DEV
GUE
MOR
EVA
WEH
ROW
DAC
BAR
DEN
BUE
JEV
ERI
DRU
MUE
TIC
MAR
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	CAS	DEV	GUE	MOR	EVA	WEH	ROW	DAC	BAR	DEN
CAS	—	60	61	68	68	69	69	69	69	71
DEV	40	—	51	59	58	59	60	59	60	62
GUE	39	49	—	58	58	59	58	59	59	62
MOR	32	41	42	—	51	51	51	51	51	53
EVA	32	42	42	49	—	51	51	51	50	53
WEH	31	41	41	49	49	—	50	51	51	52
ROW	31	40	42	49	49	50	—	50	50	52
DAC	31	41	41	49	49	49	50	—	51	53
BAR	31	40	41	49	50	49	50	49	—	51
DEN	29	38	38	47	47	48	48	47	49	—

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
CAS
DEV
GUE
MOR
EVA
WEH
ROW
DAC
BAR
DEN
BUE
JEV
ERI
DRU
MUE
TIC
MAR
NAT
DIG
MAL

beats ↓ / →	CAS	DEV	GUE	MOR	EVA	WEH	ROW	DAC	BAR	DEN
CAS	—	60	61	68	68	69	69	69	69	71
DEV	40	—	51	59	58	59	60	59	60	62
GUE	39	49	—	58	58	59	58	59	59	62
MOR	32	41	42	—	51	51	51	51	51	53
EVA	32	42	42	49	—	51	51	51	50	53
WEH	31	41	41	49	49	—	50	51	51	52
ROW	31	40	42	49	49	50	—	50	50	52
DAC	31	41	41	49	49	49	50	—	51	53
BAR	31	40	41	49	50	49	50	49	—	51
DEN	29	38	38	47	47	48	48	47	49	—