Evidence
—Over 12 paired rounds, the model does NOT beat the baseline (grid order).
| Baseline | Race | Rounds | Model | Baseline | Gain | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grid order | race | 12 | 3.61 | 3.39 | -0.22 | does NOT beat the baseline |
| Last race order | race | 11 | 3.53 | 4.84 | +1.31 | beats the baseline |
| Standings order | race | 11 | 3.53 | 4.19 | +0.66 | beats the baseline |
Paired bootstrap on the round-by-round difference: -0.221, 95% CI [-0.418, -0.039] in positions gained. Positive means the model is closer to the real finishing order than grid order is; the whole interval is BELOW zero, so the shortfall is measured, not noise.
forward evaluation — each round was forecast before it ran and scored afterwards; not a backtest. Historical replays and the forward record are computed separately and never merged.
- The model does not beat grid order on every measured comparison. That is stated rather than hidden.
- Metrics are only comparable within this series. A position error over this field size means nothing next to another series' number.
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Historical Evaluation
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Forecast Calibration
Probability Calibration
A well-calibrated model assigns probabilities that match observed frequencies. Bins close to the dashed reference line indicate good calibration.
Calibration Error
0.0334
Lower is better
Forecast Sharpness
0.1118
Lower is better
vs Uniform Baseline
—
Baseline not provided
Sample size: 263 observations
Note: Each round is calibrated strictly out-of-sample: the calibrator is fit only on rounds that completed BEFORE it (expanding window), never on its own result. A round with fewer than --min-completed-rounds prior races publishes raw Monte Carlo probabilities (calibration.applied=false) — publishing raw is strictly better than over-fitting a handful of events. Published probabilities carry a small floor (no driver is ever 0.0) and are renormalized per market (win sums to 1, podium to 3, top6 to 6, top10 to 10). The metrics below score the FINAL PUBLISHED probabilities against actual results, not the raw inputs.
Generated: 8/23/2026, 4:17:31 PM