Round 9: AdventHealth 400

Round 09

AdventHealth 400

IntermediateResult + Forecast

Venue

Kansas Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 80 / 85 / 109

3 stages, 274 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Tyler Reddick (21%) over Denny Hamlin (13%).

INTERMEDIATE

Kansas Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast called the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 7.2 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Kyle Larson

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P31

Predicted P9

Race Winner

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P12

Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P34

Predicted P12

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

21%53%

Hamlin

13%37%

Gibbs

13%37%

Blaney

10%31%

Elliott

5%15%

Buescher

4%13%

Keselowski

5%19%

Preece

4%13%

Larson

2%9%

Bell

3%9%

Byron

3%10%

Briscoe

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	21%	53%	P1–P12	9%	High	P1
2	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	13%	37%	P1–P32	12%	Low	P4
3	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	13%	37%	P1–P33	12%	Low	P9
4	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	10%	31%	P1–P34	16%	Low	P24
5	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	5%	15%	P3–P30	10%	Medium	P8
6	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	4%	13%	P3–P20	9%	High	P10
7	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	5%	19%	P2–P34	14%	Low	P6
8	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	4%	13%	P3–P32	11%	Low	P11
9	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	2%	9%	P4–P31	11%	Medium	P2
10	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	9%	P4–P32	12%	Low	P20
11	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	3%	10%	P4–P33	12%	Low	P7
12	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	9%	P4–P34	13%	Low	P3
13	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	2%	7%	P4–P34	15%	Low	P13
14	Joey Logano Team Penske	2%	6%	P5–P32	12%	Medium	P30
15	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P35	17%	Low	P19
16	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	3%	P7–P33	12%	Medium	P12
17	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	4%	P7–P34	17%	Medium	P5
18	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P29	10%	Medium	P34
19	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P8–P33	12%	Medium	P23
20	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P9–P33	12%	Medium	P26
21	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P9–P32	12%	Medium	P36
22	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P34	13%	Medium	P32
23	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P33	12%	Medium	P17
24	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P12–P33	12%	Medium	P16
25	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P12–P34	14%	Medium	P31
26	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P13–P32	11%	High	P35
27	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P16–P34	13%	High	P14
28	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	1%	P16–P35	17%	High	P27
29	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P17–P33	12%	High	P22
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P17–P34	12%	High	P21
31	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P17–P34	15%	High	P28
32	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P17–P34	17%	High	P29
33	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	0%	0%	P17–P34	16%	High	P15
34	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P20–P34	12%	High	P33
35	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P21–P35	12%	High	P25
36	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	0%	P22–P35	14%	High	P18
37	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P26–P35	17%	High	P37

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

80 laps

1	Denny Hamlin	+10
2	Kyle Larson	+9
3	Tyler Reddick	+8
4	Ty Gibbs	+7
5	Christopher Bell	+6
6	Chase Elliott	+5
7	Chase Briscoe	+4
8	Carson Hocevar	+3
9	Bubba Wallace	+2
10	Corey Heim	+0

Stage 2

85 laps

1	Kyle Larson	+10
2	Denny Hamlin	+9
3	Tyler Reddick	+8
4	Chase Elliott	+7
5	Christopher Bell	+6
6	Bubba Wallace	+5
7	Brad Keselowski	+4
8	Ty Gibbs	+3
9	Chris Buescher	+2
10	Carson Hocevar	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

21.3% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Kansas Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

21%53%

Hamlin

13%37%

Gibbs

13%37%

Blaney

10%31%

Elliott

5%15%

Buescher

4%13%

Keselowski

5%19%

Preece

4%13%

Larson

2%9%

Bell

3%9%

Byron

3%10%

Briscoe

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 11 of 37 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37
TYREDDICK
DEHAMLIN
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
CHELLIOTT
CHBUESCHER
BRKESELOWSKI
RYPREECE
KYLARSON
CHBELL
WIBYRON
CHBRISCOE
CAHOCEVAR
JOLOGANO
DASUAREZ
AUCINDRIC
BUWALLACE
MIMCDOWELL
ERJONES
ROCHASTAIN
SHGISBERGEN
ZASMITH
TOGILLILAND
AUDILLON
AJALLMENDINGER
KYBUSCH
RIHERBST
JOBERRY
JONEMECHEK
RISTENHOUSE
NOGRAGSON
COZILISCH
COHEIM
TYDILLON
COCUSTER
ALBOWMAN
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	DEHAMLIN	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	CHELLIOTT	CHBUESCHER	BRKESELOWSKI	RYPREECE	KYLARSON	CHBELL	WIBYRON	CHBRISCOE
TYREDDICK	—	60	61	65	76	77	74	79	82	82	82	82
DEHAMLIN	40	—	51	56	68	70	66	71	76	75	76	76
TYGIBBS	39	49	—	55	68	69	65	71	75	74	75	75
RYBLANEY	35	44	45	—	63	64	60	65	71	71	72	70
CHELLIOTT	24	32	32	37	—	52	47	53	61	61	61	61
CHBUESCHER	23	30	31	36	48	—	46	52	60	60	60	60
BRKESELOWSKI	26	34	35	40	53	54	—	57	63	62	62	62
RYPREECE	21	29	29	35	47	48	43	—	58	57	58	57
KYLARSON	18	24	25	29	39	40	37	42	—	49	50	50
CHBELL	18	25	26	29	39	40	38	43	51	—	51	50
WIBYRON	18	24	25	28	39	40	38	42	50	49	—	50
CHBRISCOE	18	24	25	30	39	40	38	43	50	50	50	—