Round 8: Food City 500 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 08

Food City 500

Short TrackResult + Forecast

Venue

Bristol Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

Short TrackStages 125 / 125 / 255

3 stages, 505 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Denny Hamlin (13%) over Tyler Reddick (12%).

SHORT TRACK

Bristol Motor Speedway is a short track — beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 8.8 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Ryan Blaney

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P34

Predicted P6

Race Winner

Ty Gibbs

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P33

Predicted P4

Kyle Larson

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P32

Predicted P11

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

12%35%

Hamlin

13%36%

Elliott

10%27%

Gibbs

10%29%

Byron

8%23%

Blaney

10%30%

Bell

7%23%

Keselowski

5%15%

Buescher

3%9%

Preece

3%11%

Larson

3%10%

Gisbergen

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	12%	35%	P1–P14	9%	High	P4
2	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	13%	36%	P1–P33	12%	Low	P9
3	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	10%	27%	P2–P16	10%	High	P22
4	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	10%	29%	P1–P33	13%	Low	P1
5	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	8%	23%	P2–P33	13%	Low	P30
6	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	10%	30%	P1–P34	16%	Low	P2
7	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	7%	23%	P2–P33	12%	Low	P27
8	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	5%	15%	P3–P34	14%	Low	P14
9	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	3%	9%	P4–P22	9%	High	P13
10	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	3%	11%	P3–P32	11%	Low	P8
11	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	3%	10%	P4–P32	11%	Low	P3
12	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	7%	P5–P32	12%	Low	P34
13	Joey Logano Team Penske	2%	6%	P5–P33	13%	Low	P7
14	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	2%	4%	P6–P28	10%	Medium	P24
15	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P34	15%	Low	P10
16	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	3%	P7–P33	14%	Medium	P5
17	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P8–P33	12%	Medium	P23
18	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P9–P32	12%	Medium	P20
19	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	3%	P9–P33	13%	Medium	P16
20	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P35	17%	Low	P12
21	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	2%	P10–P35	17%	Medium	P11
22	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P12–P32	11%	Medium	P25
23	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	2%	P11–P35	17%	Medium	P32
24	Chad Finchum Garage 66	1%	2%	P11–P35	18%	Medium	P36
25	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P13–P33	13%	Medium	P18
26	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P13–P34	14%	Medium	P15
27	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P14–P33	12%	High	P35
28	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P33	12%	High	P6
29	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P34	14%	High	P19
30	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P16–P35	18%	High	P33
31	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	0%	P18–P34	14%	High	P21
32	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P18–P34	15%	High	P26
33	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	0%	P18–P34	12%	High	P17
34	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	0%	P19–P34	13%	High	P37
35	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P20–P34	12%	High	P29
36	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P22–P35	13%	High	P28
37	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P24–P35	18%	High	P31

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

125 laps

1	Kyle Larson	+10
2	Christopher Bell	+9
3	Ryan Blaney	+8
4	Chase Briscoe	+7
5	Josh Berry	+6
6	Denny Hamlin	+5
7	Carson Hocevar	+4
8	Riley Herbst	+3
9	Bubba Wallace	+2
10	Austin Cindric	+1

Stage 2

125 laps

1	Kyle Larson	+10
2	Ryan Blaney	+9
3	Denny Hamlin	+8
4	Carson Hocevar	+7
5	Chase Briscoe	+6
6	Josh Berry	+5
7	Ty Gibbs	+4
8	Joey Logano	+3
9	Bubba Wallace	+2
10	Austin Cindric	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

12.3% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Short Track

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Short Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Short Track racing: beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

12%35%

Hamlin

13%36%

Elliott

10%27%

Gibbs

10%29%

Byron

8%23%

Blaney

10%30%

Bell

7%23%

Keselowski

5%15%

Buescher

3%9%

Preece

3%11%

Larson

3%10%

Gisbergen

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 8 of 37 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37
TYREDDICK
DEHAMLIN
CHELLIOTT
TYGIBBS
WIBYRON
RYBLANEY
CHBELL
BRKESELOWSKI
CHBUESCHER
RYPREECE
KYLARSON
SHGISBERGEN
JOLOGANO
MIMCDOWELL
CAHOCEVAR
CHBRISCOE
ERJONES
ROCHASTAIN
AUCINDRIC
DASUAREZ
BUWALLACE
KYBUSCH
JOBERRY
CHFINCHUM
AUDILLON
AJALLMENDINGER
JONEMECHEK
TOGILLILAND
ZASMITH
COZILISCH
RIHERBST
NOGRAGSON
RISTENHOUSE
ALBOWMAN
TYDILLON
COCUSTER
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	DEHAMLIN	CHELLIOTT	TYGIBBS	WIBYRON	RYBLANEY	CHBELL	BRKESELOWSKI	CHBUESCHER	RYPREECE	KYLARSON	SHGISBERGEN
TYREDDICK	—	50	57	56	61	56	62	70	76	75	75	80
DEHAMLIN	50	—	57	55	60	55	61	69	75	74	74	77
CHELLIOTT	43	43	—	49	54	49	56	64	71	71	71	76
TYGIBBS	44	45	51	—	54	51	55	65	71	69	70	75
WIBYRON	39	40	46	46	—	45	52	60	67	66	66	72
RYBLANEY	44	45	51	49	55	—	55	63	70	68	69	73
CHBELL	38	39	44	45	48	45	—	59	65	65	66	72
BRKESELOWSKI	30	31	36	35	40	37	41	—	58	57	57	64
CHBUESCHER	24	25	29	29	33	30	35	42	—	48	49	57
RYPREECE	25	26	30	31	34	32	35	43	52	—	51	58
KYLARSON	25	26	29	30	34	31	34	43	51	49	—	57
SHGISBERGEN	20	23	24	25	28	27	28	36	43	42	43	—