Round 7: Cook Out 400 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 07

Cook Out 400

Short TrackResult + Forecast

Venue

Martinsville Speedway

United States

Race Format

Short TrackStages 80 / 100 / 220

3 stages, 400 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Tyler Reddick is the clear favourite at 26% — nobody else clears 10%.

SHORT TRACK

Martinsville Speedway is a short track — beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.6 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P32

Race Winner

Chase Elliott

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P31

Predicted P9

Joey Logano

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P11–P34

Predicted P23

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

26%59%

Hamlin

9%27%

Gibbs

7%24%

Blaney

10%30%

Bell

6%19%

Byron

6%19%

Keselowski

6%20%

Buescher

5%15%

Elliott

4%14%

Preece

3%9%

Larson

2%8%

Wallace

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	26%	59%	P1–P12	10%	High	P15
2	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	9%	27%	P2–P32	12%	Low	P2
3	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	7%	24%	P2–P33	13%	Low	P4
4	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	10%	30%	P2–P35	16%	Low	P6
5	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	6%	19%	P2–P33	12%	Low	P7
6	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	6%	19%	P2–P33	13%	Low	P5
7	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	6%	20%	P2–P33	15%	Low	P13
8	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	5%	15%	P2–P21	10%	High	P19
9	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	4%	14%	P3–P31	10%	Low	P1
10	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	3%	9%	P4–P32	11%	Low	P12
11	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	2%	8%	P4–P32	11%	Low	P9
12	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	3%	9%	P4–P34	16%	Low	P36
13	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	2%	5%	P6–P30	10%	Medium	P18
14	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	5%	P6–P33	12%	Medium	P11
15	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P34	16%	Low	P17
16	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	4%	P7–P33	12%	Medium	P21
17	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	1%	3%	P7–P35	17%	Low	P20
18	Justin Allgaier Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P33	15%	Medium	P22
19	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P10–P33	12%	Medium	P16
20	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P10–P33	12%	Medium	P33
21	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P10–P32	11%	Medium	P24
22	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	2%	P11–P34	14%	Medium	P14
23	Joey Logano Team Penske	1%	2%	P11–P34	13%	Medium	P3
24	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	2%	P11–P34	14%	Medium	P34
25	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P12–P33	13%	Medium	P25
26	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P12–P34	15%	Medium	P27
27	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P13–P33	13%	High	P35
28	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P13–P33	12%	High	P29
29	Austin Cindric Team Penske	0%	1%	P15–P34	13%	High	P8
30	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P34	12%	High	P23
31	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P16–P35	19%	High	P26
32	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P17–P34	11%	High	P37
33	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P17–P34	12%	High	P30
34	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P19–P35	17%	High	P10
35	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P19–P35	16%	High	P28
36	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P23–P35	13%	High	P31
37	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P25–P35	18%	High	P32

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

80 laps

1	Denny Hamlin	+10
2	William Byron	+9
3	Josh Berry	+8
4	Ty Gibbs	+7
5	Austin Cindric	+6
6	Shane Van Gisbergen	+5
7	Joey Logano	+4
8	Ryan Blaney	+3
9	Tyler Reddick	+2
10	Ryan Preece	+1

Stage 2

100 laps

1	Denny Hamlin	+10
2	Ty Gibbs	+9
3	Joey Logano	+8
4	Ryan Blaney	+7
5	William Byron	+6
6	Austin Cindric	+5
7	Tyler Reddick	+4
8	Shane Van Gisbergen	+3
9	Kyle Larson	+2
10	Josh Berry	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

26.2% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Short Track

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Short Track

Martinsville Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Short Track racing: beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

26%59%

Hamlin

9%27%

Gibbs

7%24%

Blaney

10%30%

Bell

6%19%

Byron

6%19%

Keselowski

6%20%

Buescher

5%15%

Elliott

4%14%

Preece

3%9%

Larson

2%8%

Wallace

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 16 of 37 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37
TYREDDICK
DEHAMLIN
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
CHBELL
WIBYRON
BRKESELOWSKI
CHBUESCHER
CHELLIOTT
RYPREECE
KYLARSON
BUWALLACE
MIMCDOWELL
SHGISBERGEN
CAHOCEVAR
ERJONES
DASUAREZ
JUALLGAIER
ROCHASTAIN
AUHILL
KYBUSCH
CHBRISCOE
JOLOGANO
ZASMITH
AUDILLON
AJALLMENDINGER
RIHERBST
JONEMECHEK
AUCINDRIC
TOGILLILAND
COZILISCH
TYDILLON
RISTENHOUSE
JOBERRY
NOGRAGSON
COCUSTER
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	DEHAMLIN	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	CHBELL	WIBYRON	BRKESELOWSKI	CHBUESCHER	CHELLIOTT	RYPREECE	KYLARSON	BUWALLACE
TYREDDICK	—	71	72	68	75	76	75	79	79	83	84	84
DEHAMLIN	29	—	53	49	58	58	58	62	63	70	73	72
TYGIBBS	28	47	—	46	54	55	54	60	60	67	71	70
RYBLANEY	32	51	54	—	58	58	57	62	64	69	72	70
CHBELL	25	42	46	42	—	50	50	56	55	64	68	67
WIBYRON	24	42	45	42	50	—	49	54	56	63	67	66
BRKESELOWSKI	25	42	46	43	50	51	—	54	56	64	68	67
CHBUESCHER	22	38	41	38	44	46	46	—	52	59	65	63
CHELLIOTT	21	37	40	36	45	44	44	48	—	58	64	61
RYPREECE	17	30	33	31	37	37	36	41	42	—	56	55
KYLARSON	16	27	29	28	32	33	32	35	36	44	—	48
BUWALLACE	16	28	30	30	33	34	34	37	40	46	52	—