Round 6: Goodyear 400 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 06

Goodyear 400

IntermediateResult + Forecast

Venue

Darlington Raceway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 90 / 95 / 108

3 stages, 293 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Tyler Reddick (18%) over Denny Hamlin (12%).

INTERMEDIATE

Darlington Raceway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast called the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 9.7 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Brad Keselowski

RFK Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P34

Predicted P10

Race Winner

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P16

Ryan Blaney

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P34

Predicted P12

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

18%46%

Hamlin

12%34%

Elliott

9%28%

Bell

10%27%

Wallace

9%28%

Larson

6%18%

Buescher

5%14%

Byron

5%17%

Gibbs

5%15%

Keselowski

3%11%

Preece

2%9%

Blaney

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	18%	46%	P1–P16	10%	High	P1
2	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	12%	34%	P1–P33	12%	Low	P11
3	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	9%	28%	P2–P31	11%	Low	P15
4	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	10%	27%	P2–P33	12%	Low	P19
5	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	9%	28%	P2–P34	17%	Low	P34
6	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	6%	18%	P2–P32	11%	Low	P32
7	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	5%	14%	P3–P22	10%	High	P9
8	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	5%	17%	P2–P33	13%	Low	P8
9	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	5%	15%	P2–P33	13%	Low	P6
10	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	3%	11%	P3–P34	15%	Low	P2
11	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	9%	P4–P31	11%	Low	P13
12	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	3%	9%	P4–P34	17%	Low	P3
13	Joey Logano Team Penske	2%	5%	P6–P33	13%	Low	P33
14	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P31	11%	Medium	P20
15	Justin Allgaier Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P34	15%	Low	P24
16	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P33	14%	Medium	P22
17	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	3%	P9–P34	14%	Medium	P12
18	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	3%	P9–P34	15%	Medium	P30
19	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	2%	P9–P33	13%	Medium	P35
20	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P34	17%	Medium	P7
21	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P10–P33	12%	Medium	P10
22	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P10–P33	13%	Medium	P25
23	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P10–P33	12%	Medium	P16
24	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	0%	2%	P10–P34	16%	Medium	P4
25	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P10–P33	12%	Medium	P27
26	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P12–P33	12%	High	P14
27	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P12–P33	11%	High	P21
28	Timmy Hill Garage 66	0%	1%	P12–P34	13%	Medium	P37
29	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P15–P33	11%	High	P31
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P16–P33	12%	High	P29
31	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P16–P35	16%	High	P26
32	Austin Cindric Team Penske	0%	0%	P17–P34	13%	High	P5
33	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P18–P34	12%	High	P23
34	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P20–P34	13%	High	P28
35	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P22–P35	17%	High	P17
36	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P22–P35	19%	High	P18
37	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P22–P35	18%	High	P36

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

90 laps

1	Brad Keselowski	+10
2	Tyler Reddick	+9
3	Ryan Blaney	+8
4	Bubba Wallace	+7
5	Kyle Larson	+6
6	Chris Buescher	+5
7	Chase Elliott	+4
8	Austin Cindric	+3
9	Daniel Suárez	+2
10	William Byron	+1

Stage 2

95 laps

1	Brad Keselowski	+10
2	Chris Buescher	+9
3	Kyle Larson	+8
4	Chase Briscoe	+7
5	Tyler Reddick	+6
6	Ryan Preece	+5
7	William Byron	+4
8	Austin Cindric	+3
9	Ty Gibbs	+2
10	Daniel Suárez	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

18.1% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Darlington Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

18%46%

Hamlin

12%34%

Elliott

9%28%

Bell

10%27%

Wallace

9%28%

Larson

6%18%

Buescher

5%14%

Byron

5%17%

Gibbs

5%15%

Keselowski

3%11%

Preece

2%9%

Blaney

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 10 of 37 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37
TYREDDICK
DEHAMLIN
CHELLIOTT
CHBELL
BUWALLACE
KYLARSON
CHBUESCHER
WIBYRON
TYGIBBS
BRKESELOWSKI
RYPREECE
RYBLANEY
JOLOGANO
MIMCDOWELL
JUALLGAIER
ZASMITH
CHBRISCOE
AJALLMENDINGER
RIHERBST
DASUAREZ
ERJONES
AUDILLON
ROCHASTAIN
CAHOCEVAR
JONEMECHEK
SHGISBERGEN
KYBUSCH
TIHILL
TYDILLON
RISTENHOUSE
NOGRAGSON
AUCINDRIC
TOGILLILAND
COCUSTER
JOBERRY
COZILISCH
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	DEHAMLIN	CHELLIOTT	CHBELL	BUWALLACE	KYLARSON	CHBUESCHER	WIBYRON	TYGIBBS	BRKESELOWSKI	RYPREECE	RYBLANEY
TYREDDICK	—	58	63	63	63	71	75	72	74	77	80	80
DEHAMLIN	42	—	55	56	55	63	67	66	67	71	73	75
CHELLIOTT	37	45	—	50	51	58	64	62	63	68	71	72
CHBELL	37	44	50	—	50	58	63	61	63	68	70	71
BUWALLACE	37	45	49	50	—	57	62	61	63	67	69	69
KYLARSON	29	37	42	42	43	—	55	53	54	60	64	65
CHBUESCHER	25	33	36	38	38	45	—	48	50	55	59	61
WIBYRON	28	34	39	39	39	47	52	—	52	57	60	62
TYGIBBS	26	33	37	37	37	46	50	48	—	55	58	59
BRKESELOWSKI	23	29	32	32	33	40	45	43	45	—	54	54
RYPREECE	20	27	29	30	31	36	41	40	42	46	—	52
RYBLANEY	20	25	28	29	31	35	39	38	41	46	48	—