Round 5: Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube

Round 05

Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube

IntermediateResult + Forecast

Venue

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 80 / 85 / 102

3 stages, 267 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Tyler Reddick is the clear favourite at 36% — nobody else clears 9%.

INTERMEDIATE

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.8 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Chase Elliott

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P31

Predicted P6

Race Winner

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P32

Predicted P2

William Byron

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P32

Predicted P13

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

36%72%

Hamlin

8%27%

Bell

6%23%

Wallace

9%31%

Larson

6%18%

Elliott

4%16%

McDowell

3%11%

Buescher

3%10%

Gisbergen

3%10%

Blaney

3%10%

Keselowski

3%10%

Preece

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	36%	72%	P1–P11	10%	High	P13
2	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	27%	P2–P32	13%	Low	P1
3	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	6%	23%	P2–P32	13%	Low	P4
4	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	9%	31%	P2–P33	17%	Low	P9
5	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	6%	18%	P2–P31	12%	Low	P7
6	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	4%	16%	P3–P31	11%	Low	P2
7	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P30	11%	Medium	P26
8	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	3%	10%	P4–P31	10%	Medium	P6
9	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	3%	10%	P4–P32	13%	Low	P36
10	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	3%	10%	P4–P33	17%	Low	P16
11	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	3%	10%	P3–P33	15%	Low	P10
12	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	8%	P4–P31	12%	Medium	P11
13	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P32	14%	Medium	P3
14	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	7%	P5–P33	14%	Low	P5
15	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	6%	P5–P33	15%	Low	P24
16	Joey Logano Team Penske	1%	4%	P6–P32	14%	Medium	P15
17	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	1%	4%	P7–P32	12%	Medium	P28
18	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	4%	P7–P32	14%	Medium	P23
19	Justin Allgaier Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P33	16%	Medium	P25
20	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P9–P32	13%	Medium	P20
21	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	0%	3%	P9–P33	16%	Medium	P22
22	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P34	18%	Medium	P18
23	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	1%	2%	P10–P32	12%	Medium	P33
24	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	2%	P11–P32	13%	High	P21
25	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P12–P33	13%	High	P17
26	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P11–P33	14%	Medium	P14
27	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P32	13%	High	P34
28	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	2%	P12–P33	14%	High	P8
29	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	2%	P12–P33	16%	High	P30
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P33	13%	High	P29
31	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P14–P33	14%	High	P12
32	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P16–P34	20%	High	P32
33	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P20–P34	14%	High	P27
34	Austin Cindric Team Penske	0%	0%	P21–P34	14%	High	P19
35	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P21–P34	19%	High	P35
36	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P21–P34	18%	High	P31

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

80 laps

1	Christopher Bell	+10
2	Kyle Larson	+9
3	Denny Hamlin	+8
4	Ty Gibbs	+7
5	Bubba Wallace	+6
6	William Byron	+5
7	Ryan Preece	+4
8	Chase Elliott	+3
9	Ryan Blaney	+2
10	Tyler Reddick	+1

Stage 2

85 laps

1	William Byron	+10
2	Kyle Larson	+9
3	Christopher Bell	+8
4	Bubba Wallace	+7
5	Denny Hamlin	+6
6	Tyler Reddick	+5
7	Chris Buescher	+4
8	Ryan Preece	+3
9	Chase Elliott	+2
10	Austin Cindric	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

35.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

36%72%

Hamlin

8%27%

Bell

6%23%

Wallace

9%31%

Larson

6%18%

Elliott

4%16%

McDowell

3%11%

Buescher

3%10%

Gisbergen

3%10%

Blaney

3%10%

Keselowski

3%10%

Preece

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 14 of 36 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
TYREDDICK
DEHAMLIN
CHBELL
BUWALLACE
KYLARSON
CHELLIOTT
MIMCDOWELL
CHBUESCHER
SHGISBERGEN
RYBLANEY
BRKESELOWSKI
RYPREECE
WIBYRON
TYGIBBS
AJALLMENDINGER
JOLOGANO
KYBUSCH
RIHERBST
JUALLGAIER
ERJONES
CAHOCEVAR
DASUAREZ
TYDILLON
JONEMECHEK
ROCHASTAIN
ZASMITH
TOGILLILAND
CHBRISCOE
NOGRAGSON
RISTENHOUSE
AUDILLON
COZILISCH
COCUSTER
AUCINDRIC
COWARE
JOBERRY

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	DEHAMLIN	CHBELL	BUWALLACE	KYLARSON	CHELLIOTT	MIMCDOWELL	CHBUESCHER	SHGISBERGEN	RYBLANEY	BRKESELOWSKI	RYPREECE
TYREDDICK	—	76	78	75	80	82	84	85	86	85	85	86
DEHAMLIN	24	—	53	49	58	60	67	70	69	69	69	72
CHBELL	22	47	—	46	55	59	65	67	67	66	66	70
BUWALLACE	25	51	54	—	59	62	68	69	69	68	68	71
KYLARSON	20	42	45	41	—	53	61	64	65	62	62	67
CHELLIOTT	18	40	41	38	47	—	58	61	61	59	60	64
MIMCDOWELL	16	33	35	32	39	42	—	53	53	52	53	58
CHBUESCHER	15	30	33	31	36	39	47	—	51	49	50	54
SHGISBERGEN	14	31	33	31	35	39	47	49	—	48	49	54
RYBLANEY	15	31	34	32	38	41	48	51	52	—	50	55
BRKESELOWSKI	15	32	34	32	38	40	47	50	51	50	—	55
RYPREECE	14	28	30	29	33	36	42	46	46	45	45	—