Round 4: Straight Talk Wireless 500

Round 04

Straight Talk Wireless 500

Short TrackResult + Forecast

Venue

Phoenix Raceway

United States

Race Format

Short TrackStages 60 / 125 / 127

3 stages, 312 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Tyler Reddick is the clear favourite at 37% — nobody else clears 13%.

SHORT TRACK

Phoenix Raceway is a short track — beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 8.4 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P32

Predicted P9

Race Winner

Ryan Blaney

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P34

Predicted P4

Kyle Larson

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P32

Predicted P10

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

37%74%

Elliott

13%40%

Logano

6%19%

Blaney

6%19%

Gisbergen

4%13%

Wallace

4%16%

McDowell

3%11%

Keselowski

3%11%

Bell

2%10%

Larson

2%9%

Preece

2%7%

Hamlin

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	37%	74%	P1–P9	9%	High	P8
2	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	13%	40%	P1–P31	10%	Low	P23
3	Joey Logano Team Penske	6%	19%	P2–P32	12%	Low	P31
4	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	6%	19%	P2–P34	17%	Low	P1
5	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	4%	13%	P3–P33	12%	Low	P11
6	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	4%	16%	P3–P35	17%	Low	P6
7	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P31	10%	Medium	P9
8	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	3%	11%	P3–P34	15%	Low	P15
9	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	10%	P4–P32	12%	Medium	P2
10	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	2%	9%	P4–P32	11%	Medium	P3
11	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	7%	P4–P31	11%	Medium	P13
12	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	8%	P4–P33	12%	Low	P5
13	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	1%	6%	P5–P28	9%	High	P14
14	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	2%	7%	P5–P34	15%	Low	P19
15	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P34	17%	Low	P30
16	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P33	13%	Medium	P7
17	Anthony Alfredo Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P35	18%	Low	P33
18	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	1%	4%	P7–P33	11%	Medium	P26
19	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	3%	P7–P33	13%	Medium	P4
20	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	1%	3%	P7–P32	11%	Medium	P17
21	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P7–P33	12%	Medium	P28
22	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P34	15%	Medium	P36
23	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	3%	P9–P33	13%	Medium	P27
24	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	0%	2%	P9–P34	16%	Medium	P20
25	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	2%	P11–P33	12%	High	P25
26	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	2%	P11–P34	13%	High	P18
27	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P11–P33	11%	High	P21
28	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P11–P34	18%	High	P29
29	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	0%	1%	P13–P34	13%	High	P37
30	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	1%	P13–P35	17%	High	P32
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P33	12%	High	P22
32	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P18–P34	13%	High	P16
33	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P18–P34	12%	High	P35
34	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P19–P34	12%	High	P10
35	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P19–P34	12%	High	P12
36	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P22–P35	18%	High	P24
37	Austin Cindric Team Penske	0%	0%	P23–P35	12%	High	P34

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

60 laps

1	Ryan Blaney	+10
2	Christopher Bell	+9
3	Joey Logano	+8
4	Tyler Reddick	+7
5	Denny Hamlin	+6
6	Austin Cindric	+5
7	Daniel Suárez	+4
8	Ty Gibbs	+3
9	William Byron	+2
10	Ross Chastain	+1

Stage 2

125 laps

1	Christopher Bell	+10
2	Denny Hamlin	+9
3	Joey Logano	+8
4	Chris Buescher	+7
5	Bubba Wallace	+6
6	Austin Cindric	+5
7	Carson Hocevar	+4
8	Tyler Reddick	+3
9	Kyle Larson	+2
10	Todd Gilliland	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

37.3% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Short Track

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Short Track

Phoenix Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Short Track racing: beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

37%74%

Elliott

13%40%

Logano

6%19%

Blaney

6%19%

Gisbergen

4%13%

Wallace

4%16%

McDowell

3%11%

Keselowski

3%11%

Bell

2%10%

Larson

2%9%

Preece

2%7%

Hamlin

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 11 of 37 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37
TYREDDICK
CHELLIOTT
JOLOGANO
RYBLANEY
SHGISBERGEN
BUWALLACE
MIMCDOWELL
BRKESELOWSKI
CHBELL
KYLARSON
RYPREECE
DEHAMLIN
CHBUESCHER
AJALLMENDINGER
DASUAREZ
WIBYRON
ANALFREDO
TYDILLON
TYGIBBS
KYBUSCH
ROCHASTAIN
NOGRAGSON
ZASMITH
CAHOCEVAR
JONEMECHEK
RIHERBST
AUHILL
COZILISCH
CHBRISCOE
JOBERRY
RISTENHOUSE
AUDILLON
COCUSTER
ERJONES
TOGILLILAND
COWARE
AUCINDRIC

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	CHELLIOTT	JOLOGANO	RYBLANEY	SHGISBERGEN	BUWALLACE	MIMCDOWELL	BRKESELOWSKI	CHBELL	KYLARSON	RYPREECE	DEHAMLIN
TYREDDICK	—	72	81	81	84	83	85	86	86	87	87	87
CHELLIOTT	28	—	66	67	72	70	75	74	78	78	79	79
JOLOGANO	19	34	—	52	58	56	62	62	65	65	68	68
RYBLANEY	19	33	48	—	55	54	61	59	62	63	65	65
SHGISBERGEN	16	28	42	45	—	49	55	56	58	59	61	63
BUWALLACE	17	30	44	46	51	—	57	55	58	58	60	61
MIMCDOWELL	15	25	38	39	45	43	—	49	52	54	55	57
BRKESELOWSKI	14	26	38	41	44	45	51	—	52	54	55	57
CHBELL	14	22	35	39	42	42	48	48	—	50	54	55
KYLARSON	13	22	35	37	41	42	46	46	50	—	53	55
RYPREECE	13	21	32	35	39	40	45	45	46	47	—	52
DEHAMLIN	13	21	32	35	37	39	43	43	45	46	48	—