Round 36: NASCAR Championship Race

Round 36

NASCAR Championship Race

IntermediatePlayoffsUpcoming Forecast

Venue

Homestead-Miami Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 80 / 85 / 102

3 stages, 267 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Denny Hamlin (22%) over Chase Briscoe (12%).

INTERMEDIATE

Homestead-Miami Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

PLAYOFFS

A Chase playoff round — the championship picture, not just the race win, moves on every stage point scored here.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P19

Projected Winner

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P12

Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P35

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

22%54%

Reddick

9%28%

Briscoe

12%32%

Larson

8%25%

Bell

8%24%

Blaney

10%29%

Logano

4%13%

Cindric

5%14%

Elliott

3%10%

Heim

3%11%

Buescher

3%9%

Suárez

2%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	22%	54%	P1–P12	10%	High
2	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	9%	28%	P2–P19	10%	High
3	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	12%	32%	P1–P35	14%	Low
4	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	8%	25%	P2–P34	11%	Low
5	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	24%	P2–P33	12%	Low
6	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	10%	29%	P2–P35	15%	Low
7	Joey Logano Team Penske	4%	13%	P3–P34	12%	Low
8	Austin Cindric Team Penske	5%	14%	P3–P33	11%	Low
9	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	3%	10%	P4–P32	11%	Low
10	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	3%	11%	P3–P35	14%	Low
11	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	3%	9%	P4–P24	10%	High
12	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P35	14%	Low
13	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	6%	P5–P35	13%	Low
14	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	6%	P6–P33	11%	Medium
15	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	6%	P5–P33	11%	Low
16	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	2%	5%	P6–P35	14%	Low
17	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	3%	P8–P35	15%	Medium
18	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P9–P34	13%	Medium
19	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P31	10%	Medium
20	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	2%	P10–P34	12%	Medium
21	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	2%	P11–P34	14%	Medium
22	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	1%	2%	P11–P35	15%	Medium
23	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P12–P32	10%	High
24	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P11–P33	12%	Medium
25	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P12–P35	14%	Medium
26	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P13–P34	12%	Medium
27	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P34	14%	High
28	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P33	10%	High
29	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P14–P35	14%	Medium
30	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P17–P34	10%	High
31	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P18–P35	14%	High
32	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	0%	P19–P35	11%	High
33	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P19–P35	15%	High
34	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P20–P35	11%	High
35	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P21–P36	19%	High
36	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P23–P35	12%	High
37	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P23–P35	11%	High
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P29–P36	15%	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

21.9% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

22%54%

Reddick

9%28%

Briscoe

12%32%

Larson

8%25%

Bell

8%24%

Blaney

10%29%

Logano

4%13%

Cindric

5%14%

Elliott

3%10%

Heim

3%11%

Buescher

3%9%

Suárez

2%6%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
DEHAMLIN
TYREDDICK
CHBRISCOE
KYLARSON
CHBELL
RYBLANEY
JOLOGANO
AUCINDRIC
CHELLIOTT
COHEIM
CHBUESCHER
DASUAREZ
TYGIBBS
SHGISBERGEN
RYPREECE
CAHOCEVAR
BUWALLACE
WIBYRON
MIMCDOWELL
ROCHASTAIN
BRKESELOWSKI
JOBERRY
KYBUSCH
ERJONES
RIHERBST
AUDILLON
ALBOWMAN
TOGILLILAND
AJALLMENDINGER
JONEMECHEK
ZASMITH
RISTENHOUSE
NOGRAGSON
COCUSTER
COZILISCH
AUHILL
TYDILLON
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYREDDICK	CHBRISCOE	KYLARSON	CHBELL	RYBLANEY	JOLOGANO	AUCINDRIC	CHELLIOTT	COHEIM	CHBUESCHER	DASUAREZ
DEHAMLIN	—	68	64	70	70	68	79	78	82	81	83	84
TYREDDICK	32	—	47	52	54	50	65	66	71	69	73	75
CHBRISCOE	36	53	—	55	56	52	67	67	71	70	72	75
KYLARSON	30	48	45	—	52	48	64	63	68	67	69	73
CHBELL	30	46	44	48	—	47	62	63	67	66	70	73
RYBLANEY	33	50	48	52	53	—	64	65	68	68	71	73
JOLOGANO	21	35	33	36	38	36	—	51	56	55	59	62
AUCINDRIC	22	34	33	37	37	35	49	—	55	54	58	61
CHELLIOTT	18	29	29	32	33	32	44	45	—	49	54	57
COHEIM	19	31	30	33	34	32	45	46	51	—	54	58
CHBUESCHER	17	27	28	31	30	29	41	42	46	46	—	54
DASUAREZ	16	25	25	27	27	27	38	39	43	42	46	—