Round 35: Xfinity 500 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 35

Xfinity 500

Short TrackPlayoffsUpcoming Forecast

Venue

Martinsville Speedway

United States

Race Format

Short TrackStages 130 / 130 / 240

3 stages, 500 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 26% — nobody else clears 10%.

SHORT TRACK

Martinsville Speedway is a short track — beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace.

PLAYOFFS

A Chase playoff round — the championship picture, not just the race win, moves on every stage point scored here.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P33

Projected Winner

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P11

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P19

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

26%59%

Bell

10%29%

Reddick

7%22%

Larson

8%23%

Logano

5%17%

Blaney

6%21%

Briscoe

6%19%

Gibbs

4%14%

Cindric

5%13%

Heim

4%14%

Buescher

3%9%

Elliott

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	26%	59%	P1–P11	10%	High
2	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	10%	29%	P1–P33	11%	Low
3	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	7%	22%	P2–P19	9%	High
4	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	8%	23%	P2–P33	10%	Low
5	Joey Logano Team Penske	5%	17%	P2–P33	11%	Low
6	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	6%	21%	P2–P35	15%	Low
7	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	6%	19%	P2–P35	13%	Low
8	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	14%	P3–P34	13%	Low
9	Austin Cindric Team Penske	5%	13%	P3–P33	11%	Low
10	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	4%	14%	P3–P35	14%	Low
11	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	3%	9%	P4–P24	9%	Medium
12	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	2%	7%	P4–P32	10%	Medium
13	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	8%	P4–P33	11%	Low
14	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P35	14%	Low
15	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	2%	6%	P5–P35	15%	Low
16	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P35	13%	Low
17	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	4%	P6–P32	11%	Medium
18	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P33	13%	Medium
19	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	3%	P9–P34	13%	Medium
20	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P31	9%	Medium
21	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	1%	2%	P9–P35	15%	Medium
22	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	2%	P10–P33	11%	Medium
23	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	0%	2%	P11–P32	10%	Medium
24	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P13–P33	11%	Medium
25	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P33	10%	High
26	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P14–P34	11%	Medium
27	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P34	13%	Medium
28	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P15–P34	13%	High
29	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P16–P35	14%	High
30	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P17–P34	10%	High
31	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P17–P35	15%	High
32	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P17–P35	13%	High
33	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	0%	P20–P35	11%	High
34	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P20–P35	11%	High
35	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P21–P36	18%	High
36	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P23–P35	12%	High
37	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P24–P36	10%	High
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P29–P37	15%	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

25.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Short Track

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Short Track

Martinsville Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Short Track racing: beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

26%59%

Bell

10%29%

Reddick

7%22%

Larson

8%23%

Logano

5%17%

Blaney

6%21%

Briscoe

6%19%

Gibbs

4%14%

Cindric

5%13%

Heim

4%14%

Buescher

3%9%

Elliott

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
DEHAMLIN
CHBELL
TYREDDICK
KYLARSON
JOLOGANO
RYBLANEY
CHBRISCOE
TYGIBBS
AUCINDRIC
COHEIM
CHBUESCHER
CHELLIOTT
RYPREECE
DASUAREZ
BUWALLACE
CAHOCEVAR
SHGISBERGEN
WIBYRON
BRKESELOWSKI
MIMCDOWELL
JOBERRY
ROCHASTAIN
KYBUSCH
AUDILLON
TOGILLILAND
ERJONES
ALBOWMAN
AJALLMENDINGER
RIHERBST
JONEMECHEK
NOGRAGSON
ZASMITH
RISTENHOUSE
COCUSTER
COZILISCH
AUHILL
TYDILLON
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	CHBELL	TYREDDICK	KYLARSON	JOLOGANO	RYBLANEY	CHBRISCOE	TYGIBBS	AUCINDRIC	COHEIM	CHBUESCHER	CHELLIOTT
DEHAMLIN	—	69	74	73	78	75	76	80	80	80	84	85
CHBELL	31	—	56	55	62	59	61	64	67	66	73	75
TYREDDICK	26	44	—	48	55	53	54	59	62	61	69	71
KYLARSON	27	45	52	—	57	54	55	60	63	62	69	72
JOLOGANO	22	38	45	43	—	48	49	54	56	55	64	65
RYBLANEY	25	41	47	46	52	—	52	56	59	58	66	67
CHBRISCOE	24	39	46	45	51	48	—	54	56	54	63	65
TYGIBBS	20	36	41	40	46	44	46	—	52	51	60	62
AUCINDRIC	20	33	39	37	44	41	44	48	—	50	59	60
COHEIM	20	34	39	38	45	42	46	49	50	—	59	61
CHBUESCHER	16	27	31	31	36	34	37	40	41	41	—	52
CHELLIOTT	15	25	29	28	35	33	35	38	40	39	48	—