Round 31: South Point 400

Round 31

South Point 400

IntermediatePlayoffsResult + Forecast

Venue

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 80 / 85 / 102

3 stages, 267 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 30% — nobody else clears 10%.

INTERMEDIATE

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.5 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Kyle Larson

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P31

Predicted P3

Race Winner

Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P33

Predicted P7

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P20

Predicted P4

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

30%66%

Bell

10%30%

Larson

7%24%

Reddick

5%18%

Cindric

5%19%

Gibbs

6%21%

Briscoe

4%14%

Wallace

4%14%

Logano

4%11%

Byron

3%11%

Blaney

3%12%

Preece

3%10%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	30%	66%	P1–P28	10%	Medium	P16
2	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	10%	30%	P1–P32	12%	Low	P23
3	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	7%	24%	P2–P31	11%	Low	P2
4	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	5%	18%	P2–P20	10%	High	P3
5	Austin Cindric Team Penske	5%	19%	P2–P31	12%	Low	P4
6	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	6%	21%	P2–P33	13%	Low	P17
7	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	14%	P3–P33	14%	Low	P1
8	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	4%	14%	P3–P33	15%	Low	P8
9	Joey Logano Team Penske	4%	11%	P3–P32	12%	Low	P10
10	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P32	13%	Low	P6
11	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	3%	12%	P3–P33	16%	Low	P5
12	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	3%	10%	P4–P32	12%	Low	P28
13	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P31	11%	Medium	P7
14	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P33	15%	Low	P14
15	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	2%	6%	P5–P33	14%	Low	P24
16	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	1%	4%	P7–P27	10%	Medium	P13
17	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	2%	4%	P7–P32	12%	Medium	P30
18	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	3%	P7–P32	14%	Medium	P12
19	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P8–P32	12%	Medium	P25
20	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P33	14%	Medium	P11
21	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P9–P30	10%	Medium	P29
22	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	0%	2%	P10–P30	10%	Medium	P21
23	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P11–P32	12%	Medium	P19
24	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P11–P32	12%	Medium	P9
25	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	2%	P12–P31	10%	High	P33
26	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P13–P33	14%	Medium	P15
27	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	1%	P15–P33	16%	High	P26
28	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P18–P33	15%	High	P18
29	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P18–P33	12%	High	P27
30	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P18–P33	14%	High	P36
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	0%	P20–P33	12%	High	P32
32	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P21–P33	13%	High	P22
33	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P20–P34	19%	High	P35
34	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P21–P34	16%	High	P20
35	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P22–P33	11%	High	P31
36	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P26–P34	16%	High	P34

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

80 laps

1	Chase Briscoe	+10
2	Christopher Bell	+9
3	Ryan Blaney	+8
4	Tyler Reddick	+7
5	Austin Cindric	+6
6	Daniel Suárez	+5
7	Bubba Wallace	+4
8	Carson Hocevar	+3
9	Alex Bowman	+2
10	Michael McDowell	+1

Stage 2

85 laps

1	Chase Briscoe	+10
2	Austin Cindric	+9
3	Christopher Bell	+8
4	Ryan Blaney	+7
5	Bubba Wallace	+6
6	Joey Logano	+5
7	Chase Elliott	+4
8	William Byron	+3
9	Chris Buescher	+2
10	Kyle Larson	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

29.5% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

30%66%

Bell

10%30%

Larson

7%24%

Reddick

5%18%

Cindric

5%19%

Gibbs

6%21%

Briscoe

4%14%

Wallace

4%14%

Logano

4%11%

Byron

3%11%

Blaney

3%12%

Preece

3%10%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 2 exact, 13 of 36 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
DEHAMLIN
CHBELL
KYLARSON
TYREDDICK
AUCINDRIC
TYGIBBS
CHBRISCOE
BUWALLACE
JOLOGANO
WIBYRON
RYBLANEY
RYPREECE
CHELLIOTT
DASUAREZ
BRKESELOWSKI
CHBUESCHER
ROCHASTAIN
CAHOCEVAR
ERJONES
ALBOWMAN
JONEMECHEK
MIMCDOWELL
AUDILLON
SHGISBERGEN
TOGILLILAND
AJALLMENDINGER
JOBERRY
RIHERBST
COCUSTER
ZASMITH
RISTENHOUSE
AUHILL
COZILISCH
NOGRAGSON
TYDILLON
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	CHBELL	KYLARSON	TYREDDICK	AUCINDRIC	TYGIBBS	CHBRISCOE	BUWALLACE	JOLOGANO	WIBYRON	RYBLANEY	RYPREECE
DEHAMLIN	—	71	76	79	78	78	81	82	83	83	82	84
CHBELL	30	—	56	63	61	60	66	67	70	71	68	72
KYLARSON	24	44	—	56	54	53	62	63	65	66	65	68
TYREDDICK	21	37	44	—	50	47	55	56	59	61	58	62
AUCINDRIC	22	39	46	50	—	49	57	58	61	61	60	64
TYGIBBS	22	40	47	53	51	—	57	59	61	63	61	64
CHBRISCOE	19	34	38	45	43	43	—	52	54	55	54	57
BUWALLACE	18	33	37	44	42	41	48	—	53	53	51	56
JOLOGANO	17	30	35	41	39	39	46	47	—	51	49	53
WIBYRON	17	29	34	40	39	37	45	47	49	—	49	51
RYBLANEY	18	32	35	42	40	39	46	49	51	51	—	53
RYPREECE	16	28	32	38	36	36	43	44	47	49	47	—