Round 30: Hollywood Casino 400

Round 30

Hollywood Casino 400

IntermediatePlayoffsResult + Forecast

Venue

Kansas Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 80 / 85 / 102

3 stages, 267 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 28% — nobody else clears 10%.

INTERMEDIATE

Kansas Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 5.9 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Austin Cindric

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P32

Predicted P7

Race Winner

Kyle Larson

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P31

Predicted P5

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P30

Predicted P1

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

28%63%

Bell

10%31%

Logano

8%28%

Gibbs

10%31%

Larson

5%19%

Reddick

4%15%

Cindric

4%12%

Hocevar

4%14%

Wallace

4%12%

Preece

3%10%

Byron

2%8%

Briscoe

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	28%	63%	P1–P30	11%	Low	P3
2	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	10%	31%	P1–P32	12%	Low	P6
3	Joey Logano Team Penske	8%	28%	P2–P32	12%	Low	P20
4	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	10%	31%	P2–P33	14%	Low	P17
5	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	5%	19%	P2–P31	11%	Low	P1
6	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	4%	15%	P3–P28	10%	Medium	P11
7	Austin Cindric Team Penske	4%	12%	P3–P32	12%	Low	P2
8	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	4%	14%	P3–P33	14%	Low	P33
9	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	4%	12%	P3–P33	15%	Low	P9
10	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	3%	10%	P4–P32	12%	Low	P10
11	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	8%	P4–P32	13%	Low	P7
12	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	7%	P4–P33	14%	Low	P4
13	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	1%	6%	P5–P27	10%	Medium	P23
14	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	5%	P6–P32	14%	Medium	P12
15	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P33	15%	Low	P14
16	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	1%	5%	P6–P33	16%	Medium	P5
17	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	4%	P7–P32	12%	Medium	P15
18	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P30	10%	Medium	P27
19	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P33	14%	Medium	P18
20	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P31	11%	Medium	P8
21	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P10–P32	12%	Medium	P16
22	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P9–P32	12%	Medium	P21
23	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	0%	2%	P9–P32	12%	Medium	P24
24	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	1%	2%	P9–P33	16%	Medium	P35
25	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P11–P31	11%	High	P19
26	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P11–P31	11%	High	P13
27	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P12–P33	14%	High	P22
28	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P14–P33	12%	High	P30
29	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	0%	P18–P33	12%	High	P32
30	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P18–P34	20%	High	P29
31	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P18–P33	14%	High	P31
32	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P19–P33	15%	High	P36
33	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	0%	P20–P34	15%	High	P25
34	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P21–P33	13%	High	P26
35	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P23–P34	11%	High	P28
36	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P26–P34	16%	High	P34

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

80 laps

1	Kyle Larson	+10
2	Denny Hamlin	+9
3	Austin Cindric	+8
4	Carson Hocevar	+7
5	Christopher Bell	+6
6	Joey Logano	+5
7	William Byron	+4
8	Chase Elliott	+3
9	Ty Gibbs	+2
10	Ryan Blaney	+1

Stage 2

85 laps

1	Kyle Larson	+10
2	Austin Cindric	+9
3	Denny Hamlin	+8
4	Chase Briscoe	+7
5	Christopher Bell	+6
6	William Byron	+5
7	Ryan Blaney	+4
8	Joey Logano	+3
9	Ty Gibbs	+2
10	Brad Keselowski	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

27.8% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Kansas Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

28%63%

Bell

10%31%

Logano

8%28%

Gibbs

10%31%

Larson

5%19%

Reddick

4%15%

Cindric

4%12%

Hocevar

4%14%

Wallace

4%12%

Preece

3%10%

Byron

2%8%

Briscoe

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 14 of 36 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
DEHAMLIN
CHBELL
JOLOGANO
TYGIBBS
KYLARSON
TYREDDICK
AUCINDRIC
CAHOCEVAR
BUWALLACE
RYPREECE
WIBYRON
CHBRISCOE
CHBUESCHER
BRKESELOWSKI
DASUAREZ
RYBLANEY
ROCHASTAIN
MIMCDOWELL
ALBOWMAN
CHELLIOTT
ERJONES
AUDILLON
SHGISBERGEN
JOBERRY
TOGILLILAND
JONEMECHEK
AJALLMENDINGER
COCUSTER
RISTENHOUSE
COZILISCH
ZASMITH
NOGRAGSON
RIHERBST
AUHILL
TYDILLON
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	CHBELL	JOLOGANO	TYGIBBS	KYLARSON	TYREDDICK	AUCINDRIC	CAHOCEVAR	BUWALLACE	RYPREECE	WIBYRON	CHBRISCOE
DEHAMLIN	—	70	72	70	77	80	82	81	81	83	85	85
CHBELL	30	—	52	50	60	64	68	66	67	72	74	74
JOLOGANO	28	48	—	48	59	64	66	65	66	71	73	73
TYGIBBS	30	50	52	—	61	64	68	66	67	71	73	75
KYLARSON	23	40	41	39	—	55	58	57	59	64	67	68
TYREDDICK	20	36	37	36	45	—	53	52	54	59	63	64
AUCINDRIC	18	32	34	32	42	47	—	49	50	56	60	60
CAHOCEVAR	19	34	35	34	43	48	51	—	51	57	59	60
BUWALLACE	19	33	34	33	41	46	50	49	—	55	58	59
RYPREECE	17	28	30	29	36	41	44	43	45	—	54	55
WIBYRON	15	26	27	27	33	37	40	41	42	46	—	51
CHBRISCOE	15	26	27	25	32	36	40	40	41	45	49	—