Round 3: DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne

Round 03

DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Powered by RelaDyne

Road CourseResult + Forecast

Venue

Circuit of The Americas

United States

Race Format

Road CourseStages 20 / 25 / 50

3 stages, 95 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Tyler Reddick (19%) over Chris Buescher (7%).

ROAD COURSE

Circuit of The Americas is a road course — left AND right turns — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field.

VERDICT

The forecast called the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 10.5 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Shane Van Gisbergen

Trackhouse Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P33

Predicted P4

Race Winner

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P17

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P33

Predicted P16

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

19%47%

Buescher

7%21%

Elliott

7%20%

Gisbergen

6%17%

Preece

5%14%

Suárez

6%18%

Wallace

5%15%

Logano

4%12%

Chastain

4%13%

Briscoe

4%13%

Smith

4%12%

Hocevar

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	19%	47%	P1–P17	10%	High	P1
2	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	7%	21%	P2–P22	10%	High	P24
3	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	7%	20%	P2–P31	10%	Medium	P7
4	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	6%	17%	P2–P33	12%	Low	P2
5	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	5%	14%	P3–P32	11%	Medium	P18
6	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	6%	18%	P2–P35	17%	Low	P25
7	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	5%	15%	P3–P35	17%	Low	P11
8	Joey Logano Team Penske	4%	12%	P3–P32	12%	Medium	P15
9	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	4%	13%	P3–P33	12%	Low	P35
10	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	13%	P3–P33	12%	Low	P37
11	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	4%	12%	P3–P33	13%	Low	P33
12	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	2%	8%	P4–P34	16%	Low	P31
13	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	3%	8%	P4–P34	15%	Low	P9
14	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	2%	8%	P4–P34	15%	Low	P20
15	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P31	10%	Medium	P5
16	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	7%	P5–P33	12%	Medium	P3
17	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	2%	8%	P4–P34	17%	Low	P8
18	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	5%	P5–P33	13%	Medium	P13
19	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	5%	P6–P33	12%	Medium	P10
20	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	2%	6%	P6–P34	15%	Medium	P22
21	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	1%	4%	P6–P32	11%	Medium	P16
22	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P33	11%	Medium	P6
23	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P9–P33	12%	Medium	P17
24	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P9–P33	12%	Medium	P34
25	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	1%	3%	P10–P33	12%	High	P28
26	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	1%	3%	P10–P33	12%	High	P29
27	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	0%	2%	P11–P34	13%	High	P4
28	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	2%	P10–P34	13%	Medium	P23
29	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P11–P34	13%	High	P36
30	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	1%	2%	P11–P35	17%	Medium	P26
31	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P12–P34	11%	High	P12
32	Jesse Love Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P13–P34	14%	High	P27
33	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P34	12%	High	P21
34	Austin Cindric Team Penske	0%	1%	P16–P34	12%	High	P32
35	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	1%	1%	P15–P35	19%	High	P30
36	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P17–P35	13%	High	P19
37	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P19–P35	19%	High	P14

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

20 laps

1	Ross Chastain	+10
2	Shane Van Gisbergen	+9
3	Michael McDowell	+8
4	Chris Buescher	+7
5	AJ Allmendinger	+6
6	Ty Gibbs	+5
7	Alex Bowman	+4
8	Chase Elliott	+3
9	Carson Hocevar	+2
10	Denny Hamlin	+1

Stage 2

25 laps

1	Ty Gibbs	+10
2	AJ Allmendinger	+9
3	Daniel Suárez	+8
4	Todd Gilliland	+7
5	Tyler Reddick	+6
6	Bubba Wallace	+5
7	Ryan Blaney	+4
8	Cole Custer	+3
9	William Byron	+2
10	Shane Van Gisbergen	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

18.9% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Road Course

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Road Course

Circuit of The Americas

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Road Course racing: left AND right turns — braking zones, tire management and racecraft separate the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

19%47%

Buescher

7%21%

Elliott

7%20%

Gisbergen

6%17%

Preece

5%14%

Suárez

6%18%

Wallace

5%15%

Logano

4%12%

Chastain

4%13%

Briscoe

4%13%

Smith

4%12%

Hocevar

2%8%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 6 of 37 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37
TYREDDICK
CHBUESCHER
CHELLIOTT
SHGISBERGEN
RYPREECE
DASUAREZ
BUWALLACE
JOLOGANO
ROCHASTAIN
CHBRISCOE
ZASMITH
CAHOCEVAR
AJALLMENDINGER
BRKESELOWSKI
MIMCDOWELL
CHBELL
RYBLANEY
WIBYRON
DEHAMLIN
NOGRAGSON
TYDILLON
KYLARSON
JONEMECHEK
ERJONES
RISTENHOUSE
COCUSTER
TYGIBBS
RIHERBST
ALBOWMAN
JOBERRY
KYBUSCH
JELOVE
TOGILLILAND
AUCINDRIC
COWARE
AUDILLON
COZILISCH

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	CHBUESCHER	CHELLIOTT	SHGISBERGEN	RYPREECE	DASUAREZ	BUWALLACE	JOLOGANO	ROCHASTAIN	CHBRISCOE	ZASMITH	CAHOCEVAR
TYREDDICK	—	69	70	72	75	73	74	78	77	77	78	82
CHBUESCHER	31	—	51	54	59	56	56	61	61	61	63	69
CHELLIOTT	30	49	—	54	58	55	56	61	61	61	62	67
SHGISBERGEN	28	46	46	—	55	51	53	58	58	58	59	65
RYPREECE	25	42	42	45	—	47	48	52	52	53	54	60
DASUAREZ	27	44	45	49	53	—	50	55	55	55	57	62
BUWALLACE	26	44	44	47	52	50	—	55	54	55	56	61
JOLOGANO	22	39	39	42	48	45	46	—	50	50	51	58
ROCHASTAIN	23	39	39	42	48	45	46	50	—	51	52	58
CHBRISCOE	23	39	39	42	47	45	45	50	49	—	51	57
ZASMITH	22	37	38	41	46	43	44	49	48	49	—	56
CAHOCEVAR	18	31	33	35	40	38	39	42	42	43	44	—