Round 29: Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Round 29

Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Short TrackPlayoffsResult + Forecast

Venue

Bristol Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

Short TrackStages 125 / 125 / 250

3 stages, 500 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 26% — nobody else clears 11%.

SHORT TRACK

Bristol Motor Speedway is a short track — beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.4 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Kyle Larson

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P31

Predicted P6

Race Winner

Joey Logano

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P32

Predicted P5

Carson Hocevar

Spire Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P34

Predicted P18

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

26%59%

Bell

9%28%

Gibbs

11%30%

Reddick

6%19%

Logano

6%20%

Larson

5%17%

Blaney

5%16%

Cindric

4%12%

Wallace

5%14%

Preece

3%11%

Briscoe

4%11%

Bowman

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	26%	59%	P1–P31	10%	Low	P8
2	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	9%	28%	P2–P33	12%	Low	P4
3	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	11%	30%	P1–P33	13%	Low	P5
4	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	6%	19%	P2–P20	9%	High	P18
5	Joey Logano Team Penske	6%	20%	P2–P32	12%	Low	P1
6	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	5%	17%	P2–P31	11%	Low	P2
7	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	5%	16%	P2–P34	15%	Low	P33
8	Austin Cindric Team Penske	4%	12%	P3–P33	11%	Low	P11
9	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	5%	14%	P3–P34	15%	Low	P7
10	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	3%	11%	P3–P32	11%	Low	P10
11	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	11%	P3–P34	13%	Low	P27
12	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P33	13%	Medium	P35
13	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P33	12%	Medium	P9
14	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P34	14%	Medium	P14
15	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	5%	P6–P33	14%	Medium	P15
16	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P32	11%	Medium	P23
17	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	1%	4%	P6–P28	9%	Medium	P13
18	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P34	14%	Medium	P3
19	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P32	9%	Medium	P21
20	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	1%	3%	P8–P35	15%	Medium	P6
21	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P9–P33	12%	Medium	P12
22	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P9–P32	11%	Medium	P20
23	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	2%	P10–P33	12%	Medium	P17
24	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P10–P33	12%	Medium	P32
25	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P11–P32	10%	High	P25
26	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P11–P32	10%	High	P19
27	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P12–P34	14%	Medium	P22
28	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P15–P34	11%	High	P26
29	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P34	14%	High	P28
30	Josh Bilicki Garage 66	0%	1%	P15–P35	17%	High	P37
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P16–P34	11%	High	P30
32	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P16–P34	15%	High	P16
33	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P17–P34	14%	High	P34
34	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P19–P34	13%	High	P29
35	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P20–P34	11%	High	P36
36	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P20–P35	19%	High	P24
37	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P27–P35	15%	High	P31

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

125 laps

1	Joey Logano	+10
2	Kyle Larson	+9
3	Denny Hamlin	+8
4	Ross Chastain	+7
5	Ty Gibbs	+6
6	Ryan Blaney	+5
7	Austin Cindric	+4
8	Carson Hocevar	+3
9	Brad Keselowski	+2
10	Bubba Wallace	+1

Stage 2

125 laps

1	Ryan Blaney	+10
2	Ty Gibbs	+9
3	Joey Logano	+8
4	Josh Berry	+7
5	Christopher Bell	+6
6	Bubba Wallace	+5
7	Carson Hocevar	+4
8	William Byron	+3
9	Kyle Larson	+2
10	Chris Buescher	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

25.5% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Short Track

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Short Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Short Track racing: beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

26%59%

Bell

9%28%

Gibbs

11%30%

Reddick

6%19%

Logano

6%20%

Larson

5%17%

Blaney

5%16%

Cindric

4%12%

Wallace

5%14%

Preece

3%11%

Briscoe

4%11%

Bowman

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 4 exact, 15 of 37 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37
DEHAMLIN
CHBELL
TYGIBBS
TYREDDICK
JOLOGANO
KYLARSON
RYBLANEY
AUCINDRIC
BUWALLACE
RYPREECE
CHBRISCOE
ALBOWMAN
WIBYRON
DASUAREZ
BRKESELOWSKI
CHELLIOTT
CHBUESCHER
CAHOCEVAR
MIMCDOWELL
JOBERRY
ROCHASTAIN
SHGISBERGEN
AUDILLON
ERJONES
JONEMECHEK
TOGILLILAND
AJALLMENDINGER
COCUSTER
ZASMITH
JOBILICKI
RISTENHOUSE
NOGRAGSON
RIHERBST
AUHILL
TYDILLON
COZILISCH
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	CHBELL	TYGIBBS	TYREDDICK	JOLOGANO	KYLARSON	RYBLANEY	AUCINDRIC	BUWALLACE	RYPREECE	CHBRISCOE	ALBOWMAN
DEHAMLIN	—	70	68	75	75	77	78	80	79	82	81	84
CHBELL	30	—	49	58	58	60	62	66	66	69	68	75
TYGIBBS	32	51	—	59	59	62	63	67	66	69	69	75
TYREDDICK	25	42	41	—	50	53	55	59	58	62	64	70
JOLOGANO	25	42	41	50	—	54	55	59	58	62	62	69
KYLARSON	23	40	38	47	46	—	52	56	54	58	59	68
RYBLANEY	22	38	37	45	45	48	—	54	53	56	58	65
AUCINDRIC	20	34	33	41	41	44	47	—	49	52	54	62
BUWALLACE	21	34	34	42	42	46	47	51	—	54	55	63
RYPREECE	18	31	31	39	38	42	44	48	46	—	52	60
CHBRISCOE	19	32	31	36	38	41	42	46	45	48	—	58
ALBOWMAN	16	25	25	30	31	32	35	38	37	40	42	—