Round 28: Enjoy Illinois 300

Round 28

Enjoy Illinois 300

IntermediatePlayoffsUpcoming Forecast

Venue

World Wide Technology Raceway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 45 / 95 / 100

3 stages, 240 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 38% — nobody else clears 9%.

INTERMEDIATE

World Wide Technology Raceway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

PLAYOFFS

A Chase playoff round — the championship picture, not just the race win, moves on every stage point scored here.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Ty Gibbs

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P34

Projected Winner

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P32

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P34

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

38%75%

Gibbs

9%33%

Bell

8%29%

Blaney

8%26%

Heim

7%25%

Briscoe

5%18%

Reddick

4%13%

Buescher

2%9%

Logano

3%10%

Cindric

2%7%

Wallace

2%6%

Suárez

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	38%	75%	P1–P32	11%	Low
2	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	9%	33%	P2–P34	13%	Low
3	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	29%	P2–P34	13%	Low
4	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	8%	26%	P2–P34	14%	Low
5	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	7%	25%	P2–P35	16%	Low
6	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	5%	18%	P2–P35	13%	Low
7	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	4%	13%	P3–P32	10%	Low
8	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	2%	9%	P4–P24	10%	High
9	Joey Logano Team Penske	3%	10%	P4–P34	13%	Low
10	Austin Cindric Team Penske	2%	7%	P4–P34	12%	Low
11	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	2%	6%	P5–P35	16%	Low
12	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	1%	5%	P5–P35	14%	Low
13	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P33	13%	Medium
14	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	5%	P6–P34	12%	Medium
15	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P32	11%	Medium
16	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P35	14%	Medium
17	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P7–P34	11%	Medium
18	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	4%	P7–P35	14%	Medium
19	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P8–P34	12%	Medium
20	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	0%	2%	P9–P32	10%	Medium
21	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	2%	P9–P34	14%	Medium
22	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P11–P33	11%	Medium
23	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	2%	P10–P35	16%	Medium
24	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P11–P34	12%	Medium
25	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P12–P34	13%	Medium
26	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P11–P34	13%	Medium
27	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P33	11%	High
28	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P14–P35	14%	High
29	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P35	15%	High
30	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P14–P34	11%	High
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P16–P34	12%	High
32	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P15–P35	14%	High
33	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P16–P34	13%	High
34	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P17–P35	12%	High
35	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P20–P35	11%	High
36	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P24–P35	14%	High
37	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P27–P36	21%	High
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P28–P36	16%	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

37.9% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

World Wide Technology Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

38%75%

Gibbs

9%33%

Bell

8%29%

Blaney

8%26%

Heim

7%25%

Briscoe

5%18%

Reddick

4%13%

Buescher

2%9%

Logano

3%10%

Cindric

2%7%

Wallace

2%6%

Suárez

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
DEHAMLIN
TYGIBBS
CHBELL
RYBLANEY
COHEIM
CHBRISCOE
TYREDDICK
CHBUESCHER
JOLOGANO
AUCINDRIC
BUWALLACE
DASUAREZ
WIBYRON
RYPREECE
CHELLIOTT
CAHOCEVAR
KYLARSON
BRKESELOWSKI
SHGISBERGEN
MIMCDOWELL
ALBOWMAN
KYBUSCH
JOBERRY
ERJONES
ROCHASTAIN
ZASMITH
TOGILLILAND
AJALLMENDINGER
NOGRAGSON
JONEMECHEK
RISTENHOUSE
RIHERBST
AUDILLON
COCUSTER
TYDILLON
AUHILL
COZILISCH
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYGIBBS	CHBELL	RYBLANEY	COHEIM	CHBRISCOE	TYREDDICK	CHBUESCHER	JOLOGANO	AUCINDRIC	BUWALLACE	DASUAREZ
DEHAMLIN	—	75	76	77	79	81	84	86	85	87	87	88
TYGIBBS	25	—	52	55	57	61	67	72	71	75	77	77
CHBELL	24	48	—	53	55	60	65	71	70	75	75	77
RYBLANEY	23	45	47	—	52	57	62	69	67	73	74	75
COHEIM	21	43	45	48	—	56	61	67	66	71	71	72
CHBRISCOE	19	39	40	43	44	—	56	62	61	67	68	69
TYREDDICK	16	33	35	38	39	44	—	57	55	63	63	65
CHBUESCHER	14	28	29	31	33	38	43	—	49	57	57	59
JOLOGANO	15	29	30	33	34	39	45	51	—	57	58	60
AUCINDRIC	13	25	25	27	29	33	37	43	43	—	50	53
BUWALLACE	13	23	25	26	29	32	37	43	42	50	—	51
DASUAREZ	12	23	23	25	28	31	35	41	40	47	49	—