Round 28: Enjoy Illinois 300

Round 28

Enjoy Illinois 300

IntermediatePlayoffsResult + Forecast

Venue

World Wide Technology Raceway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 45 / 95 / 100

3 stages, 240 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Denny Hamlin (20%) over Christopher Bell (13%).

INTERMEDIATE

World Wide Technology Raceway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 12.0 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Alex Bowman

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P7–P33

Predicted P17

Race Winner

Kyle Larson

Hendrick Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P31

Predicted P14

Joey Logano

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P32

Predicted P7

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

20%52%

Reddick

11%33%

Bell

13%37%

Gibbs

11%31%

Briscoe

8%26%

Blaney

8%23%

Logano

3%11%

Preece

3%9%

Cindric

3%10%

Wallace

3%11%

Suárez

2%7%

Elliott

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	20%	52%	P1–P29	11%	Low	P9
2	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	11%	33%	P1–P15	10%	High	P25
3	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	13%	37%	P1–P32	12%	Low	P19
4	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	11%	31%	P1–P33	14%	Low	P18
5	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	26%	P2–P32	13%	Low	P32
6	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	8%	23%	P2–P33	15%	Low	P35
7	Joey Logano Team Penske	3%	11%	P3–P32	12%	Low	P3
8	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	3%	9%	P4–P32	12%	Low	P17
9	Austin Cindric Team Penske	3%	10%	P4–P32	12%	Low	P10
10	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	3%	11%	P3–P33	15%	Low	P14
11	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	7%	P4–P33	14%	Low	P29
12	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P5–P31	11%	Medium	P31
13	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	2%	5%	P6–P27	9%	Medium	P27
14	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P5–P31	11%	Medium	P1
15	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	2%	5%	P6–P33	14%	Low	P8
16	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P28	10%	Medium	P20
17	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P33	13%	Medium	P2
18	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	1%	3%	P7–P33	16%	Medium	P28
19	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	3%	P8–P32	14%	Medium	P12
20	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	2%	P9–P32	11%	Medium	P24
21	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	2%	P10–P32	12%	Medium	P13
22	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	1%	P10–P32	13%	Medium	P4
23	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P11–P31	12%	Medium	P23
24	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P12–P31	11%	High	P15
25	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P13–P32	12%	High	P5
26	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P33	14%	Medium	P36
27	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P14–P33	14%	High	P16
28	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P14–P33	12%	High	P6
29	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P15–P33	14%	High	P34
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	0%	P15–P32	12%	High	P26
31	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P17–P33	12%	High	P11
32	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P18–P34	15%	High	P33
33	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P19–P33	11%	High	P30
34	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P22–P34	13%	High	P21
35	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P25–P34	20%	High	P7
36	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P27–P35	16%	High	P22

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

45 laps

1	Joey Logano	+10
2	Christopher Bell	+9
3	Kyle Larson	+8
4	Ryan Blaney	+7
5	Chase Elliott	+6
6	Carson Hocevar	+5
7	Chase Briscoe	+4
8	Alex Bowman	+3
9	Ty Gibbs	+2
10	Brad Keselowski	+1

Stage 2

95 laps

1	Kyle Larson	+10
2	Joey Logano	+9
3	Brad Keselowski	+8
4	Ryan Blaney	+7
5	Josh Berry	+6
6	Denny Hamlin	+5
7	Ryan Preece	+4
8	Tyler Reddick	+3
9	Chase Briscoe	+2
10	Bubba Wallace	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

20.0% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

World Wide Technology Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

20%52%

Reddick

11%33%

Bell

13%37%

Gibbs

11%31%

Briscoe

8%26%

Blaney

8%23%

Logano

3%11%

Preece

3%9%

Cindric

3%10%

Wallace

3%11%

Suárez

2%7%

Elliott

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 4 of 36 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
DEHAMLIN
TYREDDICK
CHBELL
TYGIBBS
CHBRISCOE
RYBLANEY
JOLOGANO
RYPREECE
AUCINDRIC
BUWALLACE
DASUAREZ
CHELLIOTT
CHBUESCHER
KYLARSON
CAHOCEVAR
MIMCDOWELL
ALBOWMAN
JOBERRY
BRKESELOWSKI
TOGILLILAND
ERJONES
WIBYRON
SHGISBERGEN
JONEMECHEK
ROCHASTAIN
ZASMITH
AJALLMENDINGER
AUDILLON
RIHERBST
RISTENHOUSE
COCUSTER
NOGRAGSON
TYDILLON
AUHILL
COZILISCH
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYREDDICK	CHBELL	TYGIBBS	CHBRISCOE	RYBLANEY	JOLOGANO	RYPREECE	AUCINDRIC	BUWALLACE	DASUAREZ	CHELLIOTT
DEHAMLIN	—	62	59	63	67	69	79	81	81	80	83	85
TYREDDICK	38	—	47	52	56	59	72	75	75	74	78	80
CHBELL	41	53	—	54	58	61	72	75	75	74	77	80
TYGIBBS	37	48	46	—	54	57	69	72	71	70	74	77
CHBRISCOE	33	44	42	46	—	52	66	70	70	69	73	75
RYBLANEY	31	41	39	43	48	—	64	67	67	65	70	73
JOLOGANO	21	28	28	31	34	36	—	54	54	53	59	63
RYPREECE	19	25	25	28	30	33	46	—	51	49	55	59
AUCINDRIC	19	25	25	29	30	33	46	49	—	49	53	58
BUWALLACE	20	26	26	30	31	35	47	51	51	—	55	60
DASUAREZ	17	22	23	26	27	30	41	45	47	45	—	54
CHELLIOTT	15	20	20	23	25	27	37	41	42	40	46	—