Round 27: Cook Out Southern 500

Round 27

Cook Out Southern 500

IntermediatePlayoffsResult + Forecast

Venue

Darlington Raceway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 115 / 115 / 137

3 stages, 367 laps — a Chase playoff round.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 36% — nobody else clears 8%.

INTERMEDIATE

Darlington Raceway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 6.4 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Ty Gibbs

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P34

Predicted P6

Race Winner

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P34

Predicted P3

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P19

Predicted P2

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

36%72%

Reddick

6%22%

Bell

8%25%

Briscoe

7%23%

Heim

5%21%

Gibbs

4%17%

Blaney

4%13%

Suárez

4%13%

Cindric

3%10%

Logano

3%10%

Preece

2%9%

Wallace

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	36%	72%	P1–P32	11%	Low	P18
2	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	6%	22%	P2–P19	10%	High	P3
3	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	25%	P2–P34	13%	Low	P1
4	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	7%	23%	P2–P34	13%	Low	P6
5	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	5%	21%	P2–P35	15%	Low	P19
6	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	17%	P2–P34	14%	Low	P2
7	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	4%	13%	P3–P35	15%	Low	P4
8	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	4%	13%	P3–P35	14%	Low	P21
9	Austin Cindric Team Penske	3%	10%	P4–P34	12%	Low	P13
10	Joey Logano Team Penske	3%	10%	P3–P34	13%	Low	P9
11	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	9%	P4–P34	12%	Low	P10
12	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	2%	7%	P4–P35	16%	Low	P8
13	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	2%	5%	P5–P30	9%	Medium	P20
14	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	6%	P5–P34	13%	Medium	P37
15	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P32	10%	Medium	P17
16	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P32	11%	Medium	P14
17	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	4%	P6–P35	14%	Medium	P23
18	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P34	14%	Medium	P12
19	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	2%	P8–P35	14%	Medium	P11
20	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P9–P33	12%	Medium	P26
21	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	1%	3%	P8–P35	16%	Medium	P7
22	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P9–P33	11%	Medium	P5
23	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P34	12%	Medium	P35
24	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P33	11%	High	P16
25	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P11–P34	13%	High	P27
26	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P11–P34	11%	High	P24
27	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	2%	P11–P34	13%	High	P29
28	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P12–P34	13%	High	P15
29	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P13–P34	12%	High	P33
30	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P35	14%	High	P25
31	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P14–P35	14%	High	P22
32	Chad Finchum Garage 66	0%	1%	P14–P36	19%	High	P38
33	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P15–P35	14%	High	P30
34	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P35	15%	High	P32
35	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P18–P35	11%	High	P31
36	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P24–P36	14%	High	P28
37	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P25–P36	21%	High	P34
38	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P28–P36	16%	High	P36

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

115 laps

1	Tyler Reddick	+10
2	Bubba Wallace	+9
3	Denny Hamlin	+8
4	Christopher Bell	+7
5	Ryan Blaney	+6
6	Chase Briscoe	+5
7	Ryan Preece	+4
8	Austin Cindric	+3
9	William Byron	+2
10	Ty Gibbs	+1

Stage 2

115 laps

1	Christopher Bell	+10
2	Kyle Larson	+9
3	Denny Hamlin	+8
4	Chase Briscoe	+7
5	Bubba Wallace	+6
6	Ryan Blaney	+5
7	Josh Berry	+4
8	William Byron	+3
9	Tyler Reddick	+2
10	Austin Cindric	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

36.3% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Darlington Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

36%72%

Reddick

6%22%

Bell

8%25%

Briscoe

7%23%

Heim

5%21%

Gibbs

4%17%

Blaney

4%13%

Suárez

4%13%

Cindric

3%10%

Logano

3%10%

Preece

2%9%

Wallace

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 15 of 38 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
DEHAMLIN
TYREDDICK
CHBELL
CHBRISCOE
COHEIM
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
DASUAREZ
AUCINDRIC
JOLOGANO
RYPREECE
BUWALLACE
CHBUESCHER
WIBYRON
MIMCDOWELL
CHELLIOTT
BRKESELOWSKI
ALBOWMAN
CAHOCEVAR
SHGISBERGEN
JOBERRY
KYLARSON
RISTENHOUSE
TOGILLILAND
ROCHASTAIN
JONEMECHEK
AUDILLON
ERJONES
COCUSTER
ZASMITH
AJALLMENDINGER
CHFINCHUM
RIHERBST
NOGRAGSON
TYDILLON
AUHILL
COZILISCH
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYREDDICK	CHBELL	CHBRISCOE	COHEIM	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	DASUAREZ	AUCINDRIC	JOLOGANO	RYPREECE	BUWALLACE
DEHAMLIN	—	78	76	78	79	82	83	83	85	85	85	86
TYREDDICK	22	—	49	52	53	57	62	62	67	68	69	74
CHBELL	24	51	—	53	53	58	63	63	67	67	68	72
CHBRISCOE	22	48	47	—	51	56	60	61	64	64	66	70
COHEIM	21	47	47	49	—	54	58	60	63	63	65	69
TYGIBBS	18	43	42	44	46	—	55	55	59	59	61	66
RYBLANEY	17	38	37	40	42	46	—	50	54	55	57	62
DASUAREZ	17	38	37	39	40	45	50	—	54	54	55	61
AUCINDRIC	15	33	34	36	37	41	46	46	—	51	53	59
JOLOGANO	15	32	33	36	37	41	45	46	49	—	52	58
RYPREECE	15	31	32	34	35	39	43	45	47	48	—	56
BUWALLACE	14	26	28	30	31	34	38	39	41	42	44	—