Round 26: Coke Zero Sugar 400

Round 26

Coke Zero Sugar 400

SuperspeedwayUpcoming Forecast

Venue

Daytona International Speedway

United States

Race Format

SuperspeedwayStages 35 / 60 / 65

3 stages, 160 laps.

Status

Scheduled

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Chris Buescher is the clear favourite at 41% — nobody else clears 16%.

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Daytona International Speedway is a superspeedway — pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field.

TITLE

Denny Hamlin has one hand on the title (65% on 1000 pts); 17 drivers remain mathematically alive in the regular season.

Model Forecast

Predicted Podium

Prediction published

Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P37

Projected Winner

Chris Buescher

RFK Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P36

Ryan Preece

RFK Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P37

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Buescher

41%78%

Chastain

16%51%

Preece

11%42%

Gisbergen

7%26%

Cindric

7%22%

Logano

5%18%

Gibbs

4%14%

Heim

3%13%

Herbst

1%6%

Larson

1%5%

Briscoe

1%6%

Reddick

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence
1	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	41%	78%	P1–P36	13%	Low
2	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	16%	51%	P1–P37	16%	Low
3	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	11%	42%	P1–P37	16%	Low
4	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	7%	26%	P2–P37	16%	Low
5	Austin Cindric Team Penske	7%	22%	P2–P37	16%	Low
6	Joey Logano Team Penske	5%	18%	P2–P37	16%	Low
7	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	14%	P3–P37	17%	Low
8	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	3%	13%	P3–P38	20%	Low
9	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	6%	P5–P37	18%	Low
10	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P5–P36	15%	Low
11	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	6%	P5–P37	17%	Low
12	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	1%	4%	P6–P36	14%	Medium
13	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	1%	5%	P5–P38	18%	Low
14	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	1%	3%	P6–P37	18%	Low
15	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P7–P37	16%	Medium
16	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P10–P37	16%	Medium
17	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P9–P39	25%	Medium
18	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P36	14%	Medium
19	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	0%	0%	P13–P36	14%	Medium
20	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P14–P37	16%	Medium
21	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	0%	0%	P14–P37	14%	Medium
22	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	0%	P14–P37	17%	Medium
23	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	0%	0%	P14–P38	18%	Medium
24	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	0%	0%	P15–P37	18%	Medium
25	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	0%	0%	P17–P37	18%	Medium
26	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	0%	0%	P17–P38	19%	Medium
27	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P18–P38	20%	Medium
28	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	0%	0%	P19–P37	16%	High
29	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	0%	P20–P36	14%	High
30	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P22–P37	16%	High
31	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P24–P37	14%	High
32	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P24–P37	19%	High
33	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P24–P36	14%	High
34	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	0%	P24–P37	16%	High
35	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P24–P37	17%	High
36	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P26–P38	19%	High
37	GRGAULDING	0%	0%	P27–P38	19%	High
38	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P27–P38	18%	High
39	Daniel Dye Live Fast Motorsports	0%	0%	P28–P38	20%	High
40	Joey Gase NY Racing Team	0%	0%	P28–P38	17%	High
41	Casey Mears Beard Motorsports	0%	0%	P28–P39	25%	High

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Chris Buescher

40.6% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Superspeedway

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Superspeedway

Daytona International Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Superspeedway racing: pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Buescher

41%78%

Chastain

16%51%

Preece

11%42%

Gisbergen

7%26%

Cindric

7%22%

Logano

5%18%

Gibbs

4%14%

Heim

3%13%

Herbst

1%6%

Larson

1%5%

Briscoe

1%6%

Reddick

1%4%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41
CHBUESCHER
ROCHASTAIN
RYPREECE
SHGISBERGEN
AUCINDRIC
JOLOGANO
TYGIBBS
COHEIM
RIHERBST
KYLARSON
CHBRISCOE
TYREDDICK
AUHILL
RYBLANEY
WIBYRON
ERJONES
COZILISCH
CHELLIOTT
MIMCDOWELL
COCUSTER
DEHAMLIN
ALBOWMAN
DASUAREZ
BRKESELOWSKI
CAHOCEVAR
BUWALLACE
JOBERRY
CHBELL
JONEMECHEK
AUDILLON
TOGILLILAND
COWARE
TYDILLON
RISTENHOUSE
ZASMITH
NOGRAGSON
GRGAULDING
AJALLMENDINGER
DADYE
JOGASE
CAMEARS

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	CHBUESCHER	ROCHASTAIN	RYPREECE	SHGISBERGEN	AUCINDRIC	JOLOGANO	TYGIBBS	COHEIM	RIHERBST	KYLARSON	CHBRISCOE	TYREDDICK
CHBUESCHER	—	68	73	78	79	82	83	84	86	87	86	86
ROCHASTAIN	32	—	56	65	67	70	73	75	79	81	80	81
RYPREECE	27	44	—	59	63	67	71	72	78	79	78	81
SHGISBERGEN	22	35	41	—	53	57	62	64	73	75	74	77
AUCINDRIC	21	33	37	47	—	55	59	62	71	73	71	76
JOLOGANO	18	30	33	43	45	—	54	56	68	71	67	73
TYGIBBS	17	27	29	38	41	46	—	53	64	67	64	69
COHEIM	16	25	28	36	38	44	47	—	61	64	62	66
RIHERBST	14	21	22	27	29	32	36	39	—	55	51	58
KYLARSON	14	19	21	25	27	29	33	36	45	—	47	54
CHBRISCOE	14	20	22	26	29	33	36	38	49	53	—	57
TYREDDICK	14	19	19	24	24	27	31	34	42	46	43	—