Round 26: Coke Zero Sugar 400

Round 26

Coke Zero Sugar 400

SuperspeedwayResult + Forecast

Venue

Daytona International Speedway

United States

Race Format

SuperspeedwayStages 35 / 60 / 65

3 stages, 160 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Denny Hamlin (18%) over Ty Gibbs (10%).

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Daytona International Speedway is a superspeedway — pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 12.7 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Daniel Suárez

Spire Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P38

Predicted P13

Race Winner

Ryan Preece

RFK Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P37

Predicted P15

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P36

Predicted P5

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

18%45%

Bell

10%29%

Gibbs

10%29%

Blaney

9%25%

Reddick

6%20%

Buescher

5%13%

Elliott

3%10%

Heim

4%12%

Hocevar

3%10%

Cindric

3%9%

Logano

3%9%

Briscoe

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	18%	45%	P1–P37	14%	Low	P11
2	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	10%	29%	P2–P37	16%	Low	P17
3	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	10%	29%	P1–P37	17%	Low	P34
4	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	9%	25%	P2–P37	18%	Low	P33
5	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	6%	20%	P2–P36	14%	Low	P3
6	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	5%	13%	P3–P35	13%	Medium	P40
7	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	3%	10%	P4–P37	14%	Low	P23
8	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	4%	12%	P3–P38	20%	Low	P16
9	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	3%	10%	P4–P38	18%	Low	P38
10	Austin Cindric Team Penske	3%	9%	P4–P37	16%	Low	P6
11	Joey Logano Team Penske	3%	9%	P4–P37	16%	Low	P18
12	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	7%	P5–P37	17%	Medium	P13
13	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	7%	P4–P38	18%	Low	P2
14	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	6%	P5–P37	16%	Medium	P28
15	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	6%	P5–P37	16%	Medium	P1
16	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	2%	7%	P5–P38	19%	Low	P20
17	HABURTON	2%	5%	P6–P38	19%	Medium	P12
18	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P37	16%	Medium	P22
19	GRGAULDING	1%	4%	P7–P38	19%	Medium	—
20	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P8–P37	15%	Medium	P31
21	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P36	14%	High	P4
22	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P8–P37	16%	Medium	P24
23	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P9–P37	16%	High	P39
24	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	4%	P8–P38	18%	Medium	P14
25	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P37	17%	Medium	P8
26	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P36	14%	High	P19
27	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P37	17%	High	P32
28	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	1%	2%	P10–P38	20%	High	P9
29	Joey Gase NY Racing Team	1%	2%	P10–P38	17%	High	P36
30	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P11–P37	14%	High	P15
31	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P38	19%	High	P26
32	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P11–P37	16%	High	P7
33	Daniel Dye Live Fast Motorsports	1%	2%	P12–P38	20%	High	P29
34	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P37	16%	High	P5
35	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P15–P37	18%	High	P30
36	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P15–P37	14%	High	P21
37	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P16–P37	16%	High	P10
38	Casey Mears Beard Motorsports	0%	1%	P16–P39	25%	High	P37
39	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P22–P38	18%	High	P27
40	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P23–P39	25%	High	P25
41	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P27–P38	19%	High	P35

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

35 laps

1	Shane Van Gisbergen	+10
2	Ty Gibbs	+9
3	Joey Logano	+8
4	Erik Jones	+7
5	Chase Briscoe	+6
6	Kyle Larson	+5
7	Bubba Wallace	+4
8	Ryan Preece	+3
9	John H. Nemechek	+2
10	Austin Cindric	+1

Stage 2

60 laps

1	Ryan Blaney	+10
2	Ryan Preece	+9
3	Zane Smith	+8
4	William Byron	+7
5	Todd Gilliland	+6
6	Kyle Larson	+5
7	Chase Briscoe	+4
8	Daniel Suárez	+3
9	Chase Elliott	+2
10	Austin Hill	+0

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

18.4% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Superspeedway

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Superspeedway

Daytona International Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Superspeedway racing: pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

18%45%

Bell

10%29%

Gibbs

10%29%

Blaney

9%25%

Reddick

6%20%

Buescher

5%13%

Elliott

3%10%

Heim

4%12%

Hocevar

3%10%

Cindric

3%9%

Logano

3%9%

Briscoe

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 4 of 40 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41
DEHAMLIN
CHBELL
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
TYREDDICK
CHBUESCHER
CHELLIOTT
COHEIM
CAHOCEVAR
AUCINDRIC
JOLOGANO
CHBRISCOE
DASUAREZ
SHGISBERGEN
RYPREECE
BUWALLACE
HABURTON
WIBYRON
GRGAULDING
KYLARSON
MIMCDOWELL
ROCHASTAIN
ERJONES
BRKESELOWSKI
ALBOWMAN
TOGILLILAND
ZASMITH
JOBERRY
JOGASE
JONEMECHEK
NOGRAGSON
AUDILLON
DADYE
RISTENHOUSE
AJALLMENDINGER
TYDILLON
COCUSTER
CAMEARS
AUHILL
COZILISCH
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	CHBELL	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	TYREDDICK	CHBUESCHER	CHELLIOTT	COHEIM	CAHOCEVAR	AUCINDRIC	JOLOGANO	CHBRISCOE
DEHAMLIN	—	61	61	64	67	74	76	75	76	77	77	79
CHBELL	39	—	49	53	57	64	69	67	69	71	71	72
TYGIBBS	39	51	—	53	57	65	70	67	69	70	70	73
RYBLANEY	36	47	47	—	54	62	65	64	67	68	67	69
TYREDDICK	33	43	43	46	—	58	63	62	63	65	64	68
CHBUESCHER	26	36	35	38	42	—	56	54	56	57	58	62
CHELLIOTT	24	31	30	35	37	44	—	47	50	51	51	56
COHEIM	25	33	33	36	38	47	53	—	53	54	52	57
CAHOCEVAR	24	31	31	33	37	44	50	47	—	51	50	55
AUCINDRIC	23	29	30	32	35	43	49	46	49	—	50	55
JOLOGANO	23	29	30	33	36	42	49	48	50	50	—	54
CHBRISCOE	21	28	28	31	32	38	44	43	45	45	46	—