Round 25: Dollar Tree 301

Round 25

Dollar Tree 301

Short TrackResult + Forecast

Venue

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

Short TrackStages 70 / 115 / 116

3 stages, 301 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 33% — nobody else clears 12%.

SHORT TRACK

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a short track — beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 8.9 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Bubba Wallace

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P33

Predicted P13

Race Winner

Ryan Blaney

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P33

Predicted P5

Josh Berry

Wood Brothers Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P11–P34

Predicted P21

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

33%71%

Briscoe

11%35%

Gibbs

12%37%

Bell

8%28%

Blaney

8%26%

Logano

5%17%

Elliott

3%11%

Byron

3%11%

Reddick

3%9%

Buescher

2%7%

Cindric

2%6%

Suárez

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	33%	71%	P1–P29	10%	Low	P7
2	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	11%	35%	P1–P32	13%	Low	P26
3	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	12%	37%	P1–P32	13%	Low	P6
4	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	28%	P2–P32	12%	Low	P4
5	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	8%	26%	P2–P33	14%	Low	P1
6	Joey Logano Team Penske	5%	17%	P2–P32	12%	Low	P14
7	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P22	10%	High	P25
8	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P32	12%	Low	P30
9	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	3%	9%	P4–P23	9%	High	P8
10	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	2%	7%	P4–P23	9%	High	P18
11	Austin Cindric Team Penske	2%	6%	P5–P26	11%	Medium	P12
12	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	1%	5%	P5–P33	14%	Low	P17
13	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	5%	P5–P33	15%	Low	P2
14	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	4%	P6–P31	11%	Low	P36
15	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	4%	P6–P31	11%	Low	P9
16	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P31	11%	Low	P5
17	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P7–P31	11%	Medium	P20
18	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	0%	2%	P9–P33	14%	Medium	P11
19	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P11–P32	12%	Medium	P32
20	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P11–P32	13%	Medium	P15
21	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	1%	P11–P34	16%	Medium	P3
22	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	0%	2%	P11–P33	13%	Medium	P19
23	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P11–P32	11%	Medium	P33
24	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	0%	1%	P11–P31	9%	Medium	P16
25	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P11–P33	13%	Medium	P34
26	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P12–P32	10%	Medium	P31
27	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P32	10%	High	P21
28	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P33	14%	High	P10
29	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P14–P33	14%	High	P23
30	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P33	13%	High	P13
31	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P16–P33	11%	High	P28
32	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P18–P34	19%	High	P35
33	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P19–P33	10%	High	P27
34	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P19–P33	11%	High	P22
35	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P19–P34	13%	High	P24
36	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P27–P35	15%	High	P29

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

70 laps

1	Kyle Larson	+10
2	Christopher Bell	+9
3	Carson Hocevar	+8
4	William Byron	+7
5	Josh Berry	+6
6	Ryan Blaney	+5
7	Ty Gibbs	+4
8	Ryan Preece	+3
9	Shane Van Gisbergen	+2
10	Chase Briscoe	+1

Stage 2

115 laps

1	Ryan Blaney	+10
2	Josh Berry	+9
3	Bubba Wallace	+8
4	Ryan Preece	+7
5	Kyle Larson	+6
6	Brad Keselowski	+5
7	Chris Buescher	+4
8	Ty Gibbs	+3
9	Denny Hamlin	+2
10	Christopher Bell	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

32.8% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Short Track

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Short Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Short Track racing: beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

33%71%

Briscoe

11%35%

Gibbs

12%37%

Bell

8%28%

Blaney

8%26%

Logano

5%17%

Elliott

3%11%

Byron

3%11%

Reddick

3%9%

Buescher

2%7%

Cindric

2%6%

Suárez

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 8 of 36 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
DEHAMLIN
CHBRISCOE
TYGIBBS
CHBELL
RYBLANEY
JOLOGANO
CHELLIOTT
WIBYRON
TYREDDICK
CHBUESCHER
AUCINDRIC
DASUAREZ
BUWALLACE
ROCHASTAIN
RYPREECE
KYLARSON
SHGISBERGEN
BRKESELOWSKI
AUDILLON
ALBOWMAN
JOBERRY
CAHOCEVAR
ERJONES
MIMCDOWELL
RIHERBST
JONEMECHEK
TOGILLILAND
NOGRAGSON
AJALLMENDINGER
ZASMITH
RISTENHOUSE
COZILISCH
TYDILLON
COCUSTER
AUHILL
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	CHBRISCOE	TYGIBBS	CHBELL	RYBLANEY	JOLOGANO	CHELLIOTT	WIBYRON	TYREDDICK	CHBUESCHER	AUCINDRIC	DASUAREZ
DEHAMLIN	—	71	70	75	75	81	84	84	85	86	87	88
CHBRISCOE	29	—	49	55	57	65	72	72	75	77	78	80
TYGIBBS	30	51	—	55	58	66	71	72	76	76	78	80
CHBELL	25	45	45	—	52	61	68	68	72	74	75	78
RYBLANEY	25	43	42	48	—	59	65	67	70	72	74	76
JOLOGANO	19	35	34	39	41	—	56	58	64	64	67	70
CHELLIOTT	16	28	29	32	35	44	—	53	56	59	62	66
WIBYRON	16	28	28	32	33	42	47	—	55	56	59	64
TYREDDICK	15	25	24	28	30	36	44	45	—	52	56	60
CHBUESCHER	14	23	24	26	28	36	41	44	48	—	54	58
AUCINDRIC	13	22	22	25	26	33	38	41	44	46	—	54
DASUAREZ	12	20	20	22	24	30	34	36	40	42	46	—