Round 24: Cook Out 400 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 24

Cook Out 400

Short TrackResult + Forecast

Venue

Richmond Raceway

United States

Race Format

Short TrackStages 70 / 160 / 170

3 stages, 400 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 28% — nobody else clears 20%.

SHORT TRACK

Richmond Raceway is a short track — beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 8.3 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P33

Predicted P4

Race Winner

Joey Logano

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P33

Predicted P7

Austin Cindric

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P8–P33

Predicted P17

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

28%66%

Gibbs

20%53%

Blaney

10%32%

Briscoe

8%27%

Bell

8%25%

Buescher

3%11%

Logano

3%11%

Byron

3%9%

Elliott

2%6%

Wallace

2%7%

Preece

1%5%

Suárez

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	28%	66%	P1–P30	10%	Low	P4
2	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	20%	53%	P1–P33	13%	Low	P15
3	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	10%	32%	P2–P33	14%	Low	P13
4	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	27%	P2–P33	13%	Low	P2
5	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	8%	25%	P2–P33	12%	Low	P7
6	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	3%	11%	P3–P31	9%	Low	P21
7	Joey Logano Team Penske	3%	11%	P3–P33	12%	Low	P1
8	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	3%	9%	P4–P33	12%	Low	P9
9	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P31	10%	Medium	P5
10	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	2%	7%	P5–P34	15%	Low	P20
11	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	5%	P5–P33	12%	Low	P17
12	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	1%	5%	P5–P34	14%	Low	P16
13	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	1%	4%	P6–P30	10%	Medium	P11
14	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P34	13%	Low	P37
15	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P7–P33	12%	Medium	P12
16	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	3%	P7–P34	14%	Medium	P26
17	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	2%	P8–P33	12%	Medium	P3
18	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P33	13%	Medium	P36
19	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	2%	P8–P31	10%	High	P28
20	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P32	10%	High	P30
21	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P9–P33	12%	Medium	P14
22	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P9–P33	12%	Medium	P19
23	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	2%	P9–P34	14%	Medium	P33
24	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P10–P33	11%	High	P27
25	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P10–P33	13%	High	P24
26	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P10–P33	11%	High	P6
27	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P11–P33	10%	High	P22
28	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P33	12%	High	P31
29	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	1%	P12–P34	16%	High	P8
30	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	1%	P13–P35	20%	High	P25
31	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P14–P34	15%	High	P18
32	Josh Bilicki Garage 66	0%	1%	P14–P35	17%	High	P35
33	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P34	13%	High	P10
34	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P16–P34	10%	High	P32
35	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P17–P34	12%	High	P29
36	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P23–P35	14%	High	P23
37	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P27–P35	15%	High	P34

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

70 laps

1	Ryan Blaney	+10
2	Chase Briscoe	+9
3	Joey Logano	+8
4	Austin Cindric	+7
5	Josh Berry	+6
6	Bubba Wallace	+5
7	Denny Hamlin	+4
8	Christopher Bell	+3
9	Chase Elliott	+2
10	William Byron	+1

Stage 2

160 laps

1	Joey Logano	+10
2	Denny Hamlin	+9
3	Chase Briscoe	+8
4	Austin Cindric	+7
5	Ryan Blaney	+6
6	Josh Berry	+5
7	Chase Elliott	+4
8	Christopher Bell	+3
9	Tyler Reddick	+2
10	William Byron	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

28.1% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Short Track

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Short Track

Richmond Raceway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Short Track racing: beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

28%66%

Gibbs

20%53%

Blaney

10%32%

Briscoe

8%27%

Bell

8%25%

Buescher

3%11%

Logano

3%11%

Byron

3%9%

Elliott

2%6%

Wallace

2%7%

Preece

1%5%

Suárez

1%5%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 0 exact, 13 of 37 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37
DEHAMLIN
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
CHBRISCOE
CHBELL
CHBUESCHER
JOLOGANO
WIBYRON
CHELLIOTT
BUWALLACE
RYPREECE
DASUAREZ
TYREDDICK
CAHOCEVAR
ROCHASTAIN
BRKESELOWSKI
AUCINDRIC
ZASMITH
MIMCDOWELL
TOGILLILAND
SHGISBERGEN
AUDILLON
AJALLMENDINGER
ERJONES
RIHERBST
KYLARSON
JONEMECHEK
RISTENHOUSE
JOBERRY
COZILISCH
NOGRAGSON
JOBILICKI
ALBOWMAN
TYDILLON
COCUSTER
AUHILL
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	CHBRISCOE	CHBELL	CHBUESCHER	JOLOGANO	WIBYRON	CHELLIOTT	BUWALLACE	RYPREECE	DASUAREZ
DEHAMLIN	—	57	70	73	74	82	83	84	86	86	87	87
TYGIBBS	43	—	62	66	68	78	78	79	82	82	83	83
RYBLANEY	31	38	—	54	55	71	70	74	77	77	79	78
CHBRISCOE	27	34	46	—	51	67	67	71	75	75	77	76
CHBELL	26	32	45	49	—	67	67	70	75	74	77	76
CHBUESCHER	18	22	29	33	34	—	50	55	62	60	65	64
JOLOGANO	17	22	30	33	33	50	—	55	61	60	64	64
WIBYRON	16	21	26	29	30	45	45	—	57	56	60	58
CHELLIOTT	14	18	23	25	25	38	39	43	—	49	52	52
BUWALLACE	14	18	23	25	26	40	40	44	51	—	54	53
RYPREECE	13	17	21	23	23	35	36	40	48	46	—	50
DASUAREZ	13	17	22	24	24	36	36	42	48	47	50	—