Round 23: Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol

Round 23

Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol

Short TrackResult + Forecast

Venue

Iowa Speedway

United States

Race Format

Short TrackStages 70 / 140 / 140

3 stages, 350 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 29% — nobody else clears 14%.

SHORT TRACK

Iowa Speedway is a short track — beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 2/3 of the podium — typical miss 10.3 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P32

Predicted P6

Race Winner

Ty Gibbs

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P33

Predicted P2

Ryan Blaney

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P33

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

29%65%

Gibbs

14%42%

Blaney

7%23%

Briscoe

7%23%

Reddick

4%13%

Bell

4%14%

Logano

5%15%

Hocevar

4%15%

Buescher

3%10%

Suárez

3%10%

Preece

2%8%

Keselowski

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	29%	65%	P1–P30	11%	Low	P5
2	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	14%	42%	P1–P33	13%	Low	P1
3	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	7%	23%	P2–P33	14%	Low	P3
4	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	7%	23%	P2–P32	13%	Low	P6
5	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	4%	13%	P3–P20	9%	High	P36
6	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	14%	P3–P32	12%	Low	P2
7	Joey Logano Team Penske	5%	15%	P3–P32	12%	Low	P14
8	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	4%	15%	P3–P33	13%	Low	P31
9	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	3%	10%	P3–P22	9%	High	P13
10	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	3%	10%	P4–P33	14%	Low	P23
11	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	8%	P4–P31	12%	Medium	P20
12	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	2%	7%	P4–P33	14%	Low	P27
13	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	7%	P5–P32	12%	Medium	P30
14	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	6%	P5–P32	12%	Medium	P9
15	Austin Cindric Team Penske	2%	6%	P5–P32	12%	Medium	P29
16	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P28	10%	Medium	P15
17	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	6%	P5–P33	16%	Low	P12
18	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	1%	4%	P6–P29	10%	Medium	P35
19	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	3%	P7–P29	10%	Medium	P25
20	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P32	11%	Medium	P33
21	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P30	10%	Medium	P22
22	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	2%	P11–P32	13%	Medium	P16
23	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P11–P31	12%	Medium	P7
24	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	2%	P12–P32	13%	Medium	P34
25	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	0%	1%	P12–P32	13%	Medium	P21
26	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P14–P33	12%	High	P10
27	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	0%	1%	P15–P32	10%	High	P19
28	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P33	12%	High	P18
29	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P16–P33	14%	High	P8
30	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P17–P33	12%	High	P28
31	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P17–P33	10%	High	P24
32	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P18–P33	15%	High	P17
33	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P21–P34	16%	High	P4
34	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P24–P35	21%	High	P11
35	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P25–P34	16%	High	P32
36	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P25–P34	14%	High	P26

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

70 laps

1	Ryan Blaney	+10
2	Joey Logano	+9
3	Kyle Larson	+8
4	Ty Gibbs	+7
5	Austin Dillon	+6
6	Ross Chastain	+5
7	Christopher Bell	+4
8	Chase Briscoe	+3
9	Connor Zilisch	+2
10	Zane Smith	+1

Stage 2

140 laps

1	Christopher Bell	+10
2	Joey Logano	+9
3	Ross Chastain	+8
4	Ty Gibbs	+7
5	Chase Briscoe	+6
6	Denny Hamlin	+5
7	William Byron	+4
8	Ryan Blaney	+3
9	Zane Smith	+2
10	Connor Zilisch	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

28.7% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Short Track

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Short Track

Iowa Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Short Track racing: beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

29%65%

Gibbs

14%42%

Blaney

7%23%

Briscoe

7%23%

Reddick

4%13%

Bell

4%14%

Logano

5%15%

Hocevar

4%15%

Buescher

3%10%

Suárez

3%10%

Preece

2%8%

Keselowski

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 7 of 36 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36
DEHAMLIN
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
CHBRISCOE
TYREDDICK
CHBELL
JOLOGANO
CAHOCEVAR
CHBUESCHER
DASUAREZ
RYPREECE
BRKESELOWSKI
SHGISBERGEN
WIBYRON
AUCINDRIC
CHELLIOTT
BUWALLACE
ERJONES
MIMCDOWELL
KYLARSON
TOGILLILAND
ZASMITH
ROCHASTAIN
ALBOWMAN
RIHERBST
AUDILLON
JONEMECHEK
RISTENHOUSE
AJALLMENDINGER
COCUSTER
TYDILLON
NOGRAGSON
JOBERRY
COZILISCH
COWARE
AUHILL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	CHBRISCOE	TYREDDICK	CHBELL	JOLOGANO	CAHOCEVAR	CHBUESCHER	DASUAREZ	RYPREECE	BRKESELOWSKI
DEHAMLIN	—	64	75	75	81	80	80	80	82	83	85	85
TYGIBBS	36	—	64	64	71	70	71	71	75	76	78	79
RYBLANEY	25	36	—	51	61	59	59	58	64	66	69	71
CHBRISCOE	25	36	49	—	60	57	58	58	63	66	68	70
TYREDDICK	19	29	39	40	—	48	49	49	54	59	61	64
CHBELL	20	30	41	43	52	—	51	50	57	59	62	65
JOLOGANO	20	29	41	42	51	49	—	49	55	58	61	63
CAHOCEVAR	20	29	42	42	51	50	51	—	56	60	61	64
CHBUESCHER	18	26	36	37	46	43	45	44	—	54	56	60
DASUAREZ	17	24	34	34	42	41	42	40	46	—	53	56
RYPREECE	15	22	31	32	39	38	39	39	44	48	—	53
BRKESELOWSKI	15	21	29	30	36	35	37	36	40	44	47	—