Round 22: Brickyard 400 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 22

Brickyard 400

IntermediateResult + Forecast

Venue

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

IntermediateStages 50 / 50 / 60

3 stages, 160 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Denny Hamlin is the clear favourite at 28% — nobody else clears 10%.

INTERMEDIATE

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is an intermediate — the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 9.7 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P35

Predicted P5

Race Winner

Corey Heim

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P36

Predicted P8

Joey Logano

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P35

Predicted P15

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

28%63%

Gibbs

10%30%

Blaney

10%30%

Briscoe

5%16%

Bell

4%13%

Elliott

3%11%

Byron

3%11%

Heim

4%12%

Jones

3%10%

Suárez

3%11%

Hocevar

3%11%

Buescher

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	28%	63%	P1–P34	11%	Low	P5
2	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	10%	30%	P1–P36	14%	Low	P12
3	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	10%	30%	P2–P36	15%	Low	P26
4	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	5%	16%	P2–P35	14%	Low	P4
5	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	13%	P3–P35	13%	Low	P2
6	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P33	11%	Low	P37
7	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P35	13%	Low	P21
8	Corey Heim 23XI Racing	4%	12%	P3–P36	16%	Low	P1
9	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	3%	10%	P4–P32	11%	Medium	P27
10	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P36	15%	Low	P17
11	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	3%	11%	P3–P36	14%	Low	P9
12	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	3%	9%	P4–P27	10%	High	P11
13	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	3%	10%	P4–P36	16%	Low	P28
14	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	2%	6%	P5–P31	10%	Medium	P10
15	Joey Logano Team Penske	2%	8%	P4–P35	13%	Low	P3
16	Austin Cindric Team Penske	2%	6%	P5–P34	12%	Low	P14
17	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	5%	P6–P33	12%	Medium	P16
18	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	1%	5%	P6–P33	11%	Medium	P39
19	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	3%	P7–P35	13%	Medium	P36
20	Daniel Dye Live Fast Motorsports	1%	4%	P8–P35	12%	Medium	P38
21	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P34	11%	Medium	P24
22	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	3%	P8–P33	10%	Medium	P18
23	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P9–P34	12%	Medium	P23
24	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	2%	P9–P35	12%	Medium	P8
25	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	3%	P9–P36	15%	Medium	P6
26	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	3%	P9–P35	13%	Medium	P19
27	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P10–P33	11%	High	P32
28	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	2%	P12–P35	13%	High	P29
29	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P35	14%	High	P15
30	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P15–P34	11%	High	P30
31	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P15–P36	15%	High	P25
32	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P35	12%	High	P20
33	Casey Mears Beard Motorsports	0%	1%	P15–P36	18%	High	P35
34	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P19–P36	12%	High	P13
35	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P20–P36	16%	High	P22
36	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P26–P37	16%	High	P31
37	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P26–P37	17%	High	P7
38	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P26–P37	20%	High	P34
39	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P27–P37	13%	High	P33

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

50 laps

1	Ty Gibbs	+10
2	Corey Heim	+0
3	Michael McDowell	+8
4	Carson Hocevar	+7
5	William Byron	+6
6	Denny Hamlin	+5
7	Daniel Suárez	+4
8	Chase Briscoe	+3
9	Chris Buescher	+2
10	Tyler Reddick	+1

Stage 2

50 laps

1	Ross Chastain	+10
2	Todd Gilliland	+9
3	Ty Gibbs	+8
4	Denny Hamlin	+7
5	Corey Heim	+0
6	Carson Hocevar	+5
7	Ryan Preece	+4
8	Michael McDowell	+3
9	Erik Jones	+2
10	Daniel Suárez	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

28.1% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Intermediate

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Intermediate

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Intermediate racing: the aero-dependent 1.5-mile style that decides most Cup weekends — clean air and pit execution rule. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

28%63%

Gibbs

10%30%

Blaney

10%30%

Briscoe

5%16%

Bell

4%13%

Elliott

3%11%

Byron

3%11%

Heim

4%12%

Jones

3%10%

Suárez

3%11%

Hocevar

3%11%

Buescher

3%9%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 3 exact, 11 of 39 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39
DEHAMLIN
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
CHBRISCOE
CHBELL
CHELLIOTT
WIBYRON
COHEIM
ERJONES
DASUAREZ
CAHOCEVAR
CHBUESCHER
BUWALLACE
TYREDDICK
JOLOGANO
AUCINDRIC
SHGISBERGEN
KYLARSON
RIHERBST
DADYE
TOGILLILAND
MIMCDOWELL
ROCHASTAIN
RYPREECE
BRKESELOWSKI
ALBOWMAN
JONEMECHEK
AUDILLON
ZASMITH
TYDILLON
AJALLMENDINGER
RISTENHOUSE
CAMEARS
COCUSTER
NOGRAGSON
COWARE
JOBERRY
COZILISCH
AUHILL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	CHBRISCOE	CHBELL	CHELLIOTT	WIBYRON	COHEIM	ERJONES	DASUAREZ	CAHOCEVAR	CHBUESCHER
DEHAMLIN	—	69	70	78	80	81	81	81	82	82	82	82
TYGIBBS	31	—	51	63	67	70	69	68	71	70	69	72
RYBLANEY	30	49	—	62	66	68	68	67	70	68	69	70
CHBRISCOE	22	37	38	—	55	57	58	57	61	59	58	61
CHBELL	20	33	34	45	—	51	52	51	56	54	53	55
CHELLIOTT	19	30	32	43	49	—	50	51	53	52	51	54
WIBYRON	19	31	32	42	48	50	—	49	53	50	51	54
COHEIM	19	32	33	43	49	49	51	—	53	51	52	54
ERJONES	18	29	30	39	44	47	47	47	—	48	48	51
DASUAREZ	18	30	32	41	46	48	50	49	52	—	51	53
CAHOCEVAR	18	31	31	42	47	49	49	48	52	49	—	53
CHBUESCHER	18	28	30	39	45	46	46	46	49	47	47	—