Round 21: Window World 450

Round 21

Window World 450

Short TrackResult + Forecast

Venue

North Wilkesboro Speedway

United States

Race Format

Short TrackStages 80 / 185 / 185

3 stages, 450 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Ryan Blaney (18%) over Denny Hamlin (17%).

SHORT TRACK

North Wilkesboro Speedway is a short track — beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 7.7 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P31

Predicted P1

Race Winner

Joey Logano

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P5–P33

Predicted P14

Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P4–P34

Predicted P10

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

17%47%

Gibbs

15%41%

Blaney

18%48%

Reddick

6%18%

Bell

5%17%

Hocevar

5%16%

Elliott

4%13%

Buescher

4%11%

Jones

3%9%

Briscoe

3%8%

Byron

2%7%

Larson

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	17%	47%	P1–P31	11%	Low	P2
2	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	15%	41%	P1–P33	13%	Low	P4
3	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	18%	48%	P1–P34	15%	Low	P11
4	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	6%	18%	P2–P19	9%	High	P30
5	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	5%	17%	P2–P33	13%	Low	P19
6	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	5%	16%	P3–P33	13%	Low	P13
7	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	4%	13%	P3–P31	11%	Medium	P17
8	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	4%	11%	P3–P23	9%	High	P20
9	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	3%	9%	P4–P33	11%	Low	P21
10	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	3%	8%	P4–P34	13%	Low	P3
11	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P33	13%	Medium	P12
12	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P31	11%	Medium	P15
13	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	2%	7%	P4–P34	15%	Low	P9
14	Joey Logano Team Penske	2%	6%	P5–P33	13%	Medium	P1
15	Austin Cindric Team Penske	2%	5%	P5–P33	12%	Medium	P14
16	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P6–P29	10%	Medium	P24
17	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	1%	5%	P6–P35	16%	Low	P6
18	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	4%	P7–P33	12%	Medium	P10
19	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	1%	4%	P7–P33	12%	Medium	P27
20	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	3%	P7–P33	12%	Medium	P5
21	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P9–P32	11%	Medium	P8
22	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	2%	P9–P34	15%	Medium	P7
23	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	1%	2%	P10–P34	13%	Medium	P23
24	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	2%	P11–P32	11%	High	P31
25	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P33	13%	Medium	P26
26	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	2%	P11–P33	13%	Medium	P18
27	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	0%	2%	P11–P34	14%	Medium	P37
28	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	0%	1%	P12–P33	12%	High	P34
29	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	0%	1%	P13–P33	13%	High	P22
30	Chad Finchum Garage 66	0%	1%	P14–P35	17%	High	P35
31	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	1%	P17–P34	12%	High	P28
32	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	0%	P18–P33	11%	High	P16
33	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P20–P35	15%	High	P25
34	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P21–P35	16%	High	P36
35	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P23–P35	20%	High	P32
36	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P25–P35	13%	High	P33
37	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P25–P35	16%	High	P29

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

80 laps

1	Ty Gibbs	+10
2	Shane Van Gisbergen	+9
3	Joey Logano	+8
4	Denny Hamlin	+7
5	Carson Hocevar	+6
6	Christopher Bell	+5
7	Chase Elliott	+4
8	Chase Briscoe	+3
9	Austin Cindric	+2
10	William Byron	+1

Stage 2

185 laps

1	Joey Logano	+10
2	Denny Hamlin	+9
3	Chase Briscoe	+8
4	Bubba Wallace	+7
5	Shane Van Gisbergen	+6
6	Carson Hocevar	+5
7	Brad Keselowski	+4
8	Ryan Blaney	+3
9	Todd Gilliland	+2
10	Daniel Suárez	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

17.4% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Short Track

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Short Track

North Wilkesboro Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Short Track racing: beating and banging at close quarters — track position and restarts matter more than raw pace. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

17%47%

Gibbs

15%41%

Blaney

18%48%

Reddick

6%18%

Bell

5%17%

Hocevar

5%16%

Elliott

4%13%

Buescher

4%11%

Jones

3%9%

Briscoe

3%8%

Byron

2%7%

Larson

2%7%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 11 of 37 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37
DEHAMLIN
TYGIBBS
RYBLANEY
TYREDDICK
CHBELL
CAHOCEVAR
CHELLIOTT
CHBUESCHER
ERJONES
CHBRISCOE
WIBYRON
KYLARSON
DASUAREZ
JOLOGANO
AUCINDRIC
MIMCDOWELL
BUWALLACE
RYPREECE
ROCHASTAIN
SHGISBERGEN
TOGILLILAND
BRKESELOWSKI
AUDILLON
JONEMECHEK
ALBOWMAN
RIHERBST
AJALLMENDINGER
RISTENHOUSE
ZASMITH
CHFINCHUM
COCUSTER
TYDILLON
NOGRAGSON
JOBERRY
COZILISCH
AUHILL
COWARE

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	TYGIBBS	RYBLANEY	TYREDDICK	CHBELL	CAHOCEVAR	CHELLIOTT	CHBUESCHER	ERJONES	CHBRISCOE	WIBYRON	KYLARSON
DEHAMLIN	—	54	50	71	72	73	75	77	80	80	82	82
TYGIBBS	46	—	47	67	69	70	72	72	77	77	79	79
RYBLANEY	50	53	—	69	70	70	73	74	77	78	79	79
TYREDDICK	29	33	31	—	54	54	57	60	67	67	70	71
CHBELL	28	31	30	46	—	51	54	56	62	62	66	67
CAHOCEVAR	27	30	30	46	49	—	54	55	61	63	66	67
CHELLIOTT	25	28	27	43	46	46	—	52	59	60	63	64
CHBUESCHER	23	28	26	40	44	45	48	—	57	57	61	62
ERJONES	20	23	23	33	38	39	41	43	—	51	54	56
CHBRISCOE	20	23	22	33	38	37	40	43	49	—	53	54
WIBYRON	18	21	21	30	34	34	37	39	46	47	—	52
KYLARSON	18	21	21	29	33	33	36	38	44	46	48	—