Round 20: Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart

Round 20

Quaker State 400 Available at Walmart

SuperspeedwayResult + Forecast

Venue

Atlanta Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

SuperspeedwayStages 60 / 100 / 100

3 stages, 260 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Denny Hamlin (16%) over Chase Elliott (8%).

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Atlanta Motor Speedway is a superspeedway — pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field.

VERDICT

The forecast missed the winner, had 0/3 of the podium — typical miss 9.2 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Christopher Bell

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P3–P34

Predicted P10

Race Winner

Ryan Blaney

Team Penske

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P35

Predicted P6

Carson Hocevar

Spire Motorsports

Win probability

0.0%

Range P2–P34

Predicted P5

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

16%41%

Elliott

8%23%

Briscoe

7%21%

Buescher

5%17%

Hocevar

6%18%

Blaney

6%19%

Gibbs

5%15%

Reddick

4%14%

Suárez

5%14%

Bell

4%12%

Cindric

3%9%

Wallace

3%10%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	16%	41%	P1–P34	15%	Low	P12
2	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	8%	23%	P2–P34	15%	Low	P13
3	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	7%	21%	P2–P34	17%	Low	P36
4	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	5%	17%	P2–P33	14%	Low	P10
5	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	6%	18%	P2–P34	18%	Low	P3
6	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	6%	19%	P2–P35	19%	Low	P1
7	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	5%	15%	P2–P35	18%	Low	P4
8	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	4%	14%	P3–P34	14%	Low	P8
9	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	5%	14%	P3–P35	19%	Low	P21
10	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	4%	12%	P3–P34	17%	Low	P2
11	Austin Cindric Team Penske	3%	9%	P4–P34	17%	Medium	P14
12	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	3%	10%	P4–P35	21%	Low	P29
13	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	2%	8%	P4–P33	15%	Medium	P5
14	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	3%	8%	P4–P35	17%	Low	P16
15	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	2%	6%	P5–P34	17%	Medium	P11
16	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	2%	7%	P5–P34	18%	Medium	P22
17	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	2%	6%	P5–P35	18%	Medium	P37
18	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	2%	6%	P6–P34	15%	Medium	P34
19	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	2%	6%	P6–P34	18%	Medium	P30
20	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	1%	5%	P6–P34	17%	Medium	P35
21	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	1%	5%	P7–P34	17%	Medium	P24
22	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	2%	5%	P6–P34	17%	Medium	P6
23	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	1%	4%	P7–P33	15%	High	P15
24	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	4%	P7–P34	15%	Medium	P18
25	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	1%	3%	P9–P34	15%	High	P19
26	Joey Logano Team Penske	1%	3%	P8–P35	17%	Medium	P9
27	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	1%	2%	P10–P34	17%	High	P23
28	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	1%	3%	P9–P35	19%	High	P26
29	Chad Finchum Garage 66	1%	2%	P9–P36	24%	Medium	P33
30	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	0%	1%	P13–P34	15%	High	P20
31	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	2%	P13–P35	17%	High	P7
32	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	1%	2%	P14–P35	20%	High	P27
33	BJ McLeod Live Fast Motorsports	0%	1%	P17–P36	28%	High	P38
34	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	0%	0%	P20–P35	17%	High	P17
35	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	0%	0%	P22–P35	21%	High	P32
36	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	0%	0%	P21–P36	26%	High	P28
37	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	0%	0%	P23–P36	21%	High	P25
38	Austin Hill Richard Childress Racing	0%	0%	P24–P35	19%	High	P31

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

60 laps

1	Ryan Blaney	+10
2	Tyler Reddick	+9
3	Kyle Larson	+8
4	Joey Logano	+7
5	Austin Cindric	+6
6	Carson Hocevar	+5
7	Austin Dillon	+4
8	Chase Briscoe	+3
9	Chase Elliott	+2
10	Bubba Wallace	+1

Stage 2

100 laps

1	Ryan Blaney	+10
2	Tyler Reddick	+9
3	Joey Logano	+8
4	Austin Cindric	+7
5	Daniel Suárez	+6
6	Ty Gibbs	+5
7	Christopher Bell	+4
8	Erik Jones	+3
9	Denny Hamlin	+2
10	Shane Van Gisbergen	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Denny Hamlin

15.8% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Superspeedway

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Superspeedway

Atlanta Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Superspeedway racing: pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Hamlin

16%41%

Elliott

8%23%

Briscoe

7%21%

Buescher

5%17%

Hocevar

6%18%

Blaney

6%19%

Gibbs

5%15%

Reddick

4%14%

Suárez

5%14%

Bell

4%12%

Cindric

3%9%

Wallace

3%10%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 1 exact, 8 of 38 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
DEHAMLIN
CHELLIOTT
CHBRISCOE
CHBUESCHER
CAHOCEVAR
RYBLANEY
TYGIBBS
TYREDDICK
DASUAREZ
CHBELL
AUCINDRIC
BUWALLACE
ERJONES
WIBYRON
ROCHASTAIN
ALBOWMAN
AJALLMENDINGER
KYLARSON
ZASMITH
RIHERBST
RYPREECE
SHGISBERGEN
MIMCDOWELL
JONEMECHEK
TOGILLILAND
JOLOGANO
RISTENHOUSE
BRKESELOWSKI
CHFINCHUM
TYDILLON
AUDILLON
NOGRAGSON
BJMCLEOD
COCUSTER
COWARE
COZILISCH
JOBERRY
AUHILL

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	DEHAMLIN	CHELLIOTT	CHBRISCOE	CHBUESCHER	CAHOCEVAR	RYBLANEY	TYGIBBS	TYREDDICK	DASUAREZ	CHBELL	AUCINDRIC	BUWALLACE
DEHAMLIN	—	62	65	66	65	67	69	71	70	73	75	75
CHELLIOTT	38	—	53	56	55	56	59	61	61	61	67	66
CHBRISCOE	35	47	—	53	53	54	56	58	59	59	65	64
CHBUESCHER	34	44	47	—	49	51	53	55	57	57	64	62
CAHOCEVAR	35	45	47	51	—	51	54	56	56	57	62	62
RYBLANEY	33	44	46	49	49	—	53	54	55	56	60	60
TYGIBBS	31	41	44	47	46	47	—	52	52	54	60	59
TYREDDICK	29	39	42	45	44	46	48	—	50	53	58	57
DASUAREZ	30	39	41	43	44	45	48	50	—	52	57	56
CHBELL	27	39	41	43	43	44	46	47	48	—	56	55
AUCINDRIC	25	33	35	37	38	40	41	42	43	44	—	49
BUWALLACE	25	34	36	38	38	40	41	43	44	45	51	—