Round 2: Autotrader 400 — RaceIQ NASCAR

Round 02

Autotrader 400

SuperspeedwayResult + Forecast

Venue

Atlanta Motor Speedway

United States

Race Format

SuperspeedwayStages 60 / 100 / 111

3 stages, 271 laps.

Status

Classified

Source: snapshot

What The Model Sees

Auto-generated weekend angles

MODEL

Model favours Tyler Reddick (10%) over Chase Elliott (9%).

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Atlanta Motor Speedway is a superspeedway — pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field.

VERDICT

The forecast called the winner, had 1/3 of the podium — typical miss 11.5 places.

Official Result

Race Podium

Result loaded

Chase Briscoe

Joe Gibbs Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P15–P35

Predicted P31

Race Winner

Tyler Reddick

23XI Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P1–P34

Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing

Win probability

0.0%

Range P6–P34

Predicted P17

Probability Layer

Win vs Podium

Chaotic Race

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

10%29%

Elliott

9%26%

7%21%

Buescher

6%19%

Logano

7%21%

Keselowski

6%19%

Herbst

5%15%

Larson

4%11%

Smith

4%13%

Berry

5%15%

Byron

3%9%

Wallace

3%10%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

P	Driver	Win	Podium	Range	DNF Risk	Confidence	Actual
1	Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing	10%	29%	P1–P34	14%	Low	P1
2	Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports	9%	26%	P2–P34	15%	Low	P11
3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr HYAK Motorsports	7%	21%	P2–P33	16%	Medium	P36
4	Chris Buescher RFK Racing	6%	19%	P2–P33	14%	Medium	P15
5	Joey Logano Team Penske	7%	21%	P2–P34	17%	Low	P18
6	Brad Keselowski RFK Racing	6%	19%	P2–P35	20%	Low	P17
7	Riley Herbst 23XI Racing	5%	15%	P2–P35	18%	Low	P33
8	Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports	4%	11%	P3–P34	15%	Medium	P32
9	Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports	4%	13%	P3–P35	18%	Low	P7
10	Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing	5%	15%	P2–P35	21%	Low	P38
11	William Byron Hendrick Motorsports	3%	9%	P4–P34	17%	Medium	P28
12	Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing	3%	10%	P3–P35	22%	Low	P8
13	Daniel Suárez Spire Motorsports	3%	9%	P4–P35	22%	Medium	P5
14	Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports	3%	9%	P4–P35	20%	Medium	P14
15	Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing	3%	8%	P4–P34	15%	Medium	P34
16	Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing	2%	7%	P5–P34	16%	Medium	P16
17	Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing	2%	5%	P6–P34	17%	Medium	P3
18	Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club	2%	5%	P6–P34	17%	Medium	P24
19	Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing	2%	5%	P6–P35	17%	Medium	P37
20	Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports	2%	5%	P7–P34	15%	Medium	P20
21	Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports	2%	5%	P6–P35	21%	Medium	P4
22	Ryan Preece RFK Racing	2%	4%	P7–P34	16%	Medium	P9
23	AJ Allmendinger Kaulig Racing	1%	5%	P7–P35	20%	Medium	P12
24	Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing	2%	4%	P7–P35	22%	Medium	P27
25	Cole Custer Haas Factory Team	1%	3%	P8–P34	17%	High	P22
26	Ryan Blaney Team Penske	1%	3%	P9–P35	22%	High	P10
27	John H. Nemechek Legacy Motor Club	1%	3%	P10–P34	17%	High	P19
28	Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	2%	P10–P34	17%	High	P13
29	Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing	1%	2%	P11–P34	17%	High	P21
30	Shane Van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing	1%	2%	P11–P34	17%	High	P6
31	Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing	0%	1%	P15–P35	17%	High	P2
32	Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing	1%	1%	P15–P35	22%	High	P30
33	Austin Cindric Team Penske	1%	1%	P17–P34	16%	High	P26
34	Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing	0%	1%	P16–P35	17%	High	P29
35	Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports	0%	1%	P17–P35	18%	High	P23
36	Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports	0%	0%	P19–P35	16%	High	P25
37	JJ Yeley NY Racing Team	0%	0%	P22–P36	25%	High	P31
38	BJ McLeod Live Fast Motorsports	0%	0%	P23–P36	27%	High	P35

Stage Racing

Stage Results

The top ten of each stage score championship points — stage racing is where consistent speed shows up before the finish does.

Stage 1

60 laps

1	Austin Cindric	+10
2	Bubba Wallace	+9
3	Kyle Larson	+8
4	William Byron	+7
5	Chase Elliott	+6
6	Tyler Reddick	+5
7	Kyle Busch	+4
8	Joey Logano	+3
9	Connor Zilisch	+2
10	Ryan Blaney	+1

Stage 2

100 laps

1	Bubba Wallace	+10
2	William Byron	+9
3	Chase Briscoe	+8
4	Tyler Reddick	+7
5	Chase Elliott	+6
6	Carson Hocevar	+5
7	Ryan Preece	+4
8	Ryan Blaney	+3
9	Brad Keselowski	+2
10	Shane Van Gisbergen	+1

Model Forecast

Likeliest Winner

Tyler Reddick

10.4% projected win

High-Confidence Calls

Drivers Forecast

Track Type

Superspeedway

Tap any row in the classification above to open a driver’s per-race forecast and season form.

Track & Telemetry

Superspeedway

Atlanta Motor Speedway

Layout pending

Circuit layout unavailable

Superspeedway racing: pack racing in the draft — anyone in the lead pack can win, and one wrong move collects half the field. Per-lap telemetry (speed traps, throttle traces) isn’t part of our results snapshot, so this round focuses on the forecast itself.

Charts

Win vs podium probability

Reddick

10%29%

Elliott

9%26%

7%21%

Buescher

6%19%

Logano

7%21%

Keselowski

6%19%

Herbst

5%15%

Larson

4%11%

Smith

4%13%

Berry

5%15%

Byron

3%9%

Wallace

3%10%

WinPodiumHover a row for the full market ladder

Win market by round

Predicted vs actual

Flatter lines = closer calls. 4 exact, 9 of 38 classified within three places. ·NC marks drivers not classified in the race.

Finish-position likelihood

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38
TYREDDICK
CHELLIOTT
RISTENHOUSE
CHBUESCHER
JOLOGANO
BRKESELOWSKI
RIHERBST
KYLARSON
ZASMITH
JOBERRY
WIBYRON
BUWALLACE
DASUAREZ
NOGRAGSON
KYBUSCH
TYDILLON
ROCHASTAIN
ERJONES
TYGIBBS
MIMCDOWELL
CAHOCEVAR
RYPREECE
AJALLMENDINGER
COWARE
COCUSTER
RYBLANEY
JONEMECHEK
DEHAMLIN
CHBELL
SHGISBERGEN
CHBRISCOE
COZILISCH
AUCINDRIC
AUDILLON
ALBOWMAN
TOGILLILAND
JJYELEY
BJMCLEOD

Brighter = more likely. Columns are finishing positions. White ring marks the actual finish.

Head-to-head — P(row beats column)

beats ↓ / →	TYREDDICK	CHELLIOTT	RISTENHOUSE	CHBUESCHER	JOLOGANO	BRKESELOWSKI	RIHERBST	KYLARSON	ZASMITH	JOBERRY	WIBYRON	BUWALLACE
TYREDDICK	—	52	57	59	57	58	64	67	66	65	69	69
CHELLIOTT	48	—	55	58	56	57	62	67	64	63	69	68
RISTENHOUSE	43	45	—	52	50	51	58	61	59	58	64	63
CHBUESCHER	41	42	48	—	48	49	56	60	58	55	63	63
JOLOGANO	43	44	50	52	—	51	56	61	59	58	64	63
BRKESELOWSKI	42	43	49	51	49	—	55	59	58	56	62	62
RIHERBST	36	38	42	44	44	45	—	55	53	52	58	58
KYLARSON	33	33	39	40	40	41	45	—	49	47	54	54
ZASMITH	34	36	41	42	41	42	47	51	—	49	55	55
JOBERRY	35	37	42	45	42	44	48	53	51	—	56	55
WIBYRON	31	31	36	37	36	38	42	46	45	44	—	49
BUWALLACE	31	32	37	37	37	38	42	46	45	45	51	—